I agree with Rob, Bryan.
Anecdotally, I kept an eye on a couple of my patches on Tuesday, given your
"migrational turnover" weather forecast.
Wouldn't you know it -- I had a yardbird first of 7 Chipping Sparrows at
home off Colfax in very urban east-central Denver, and a FOS Ruby-crowned
Kinglet and an unexpected Osprey soaring overhead, both in Denver City Park
about a mile from home.
Thanks again for your interesting and informative posts.

Patrick O'Driscoll
Denver

On Wed, Apr 22, 2020 at 4:55 PM Robert Raker <[email protected]> wrote:

> Your reports are are excellent and the information well presented and very
> interesting to us non-meteorologists. Thanks so much and would love to see
> them continue!
> Robert Raker
> Lakewood, CO
>
> On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 9:56:31 PM UTC-6, Bryan Guarente wrote:
>>
>> COBirders,
>> Looks like tomorrow should be a good day for migrational turnover.
>> Expect that birds from farther south will have a chance to migrate through
>> the area on stronger southerly winds (FROM the south) originating from
>> OK/TX.  Unfortunately, there isn't a strong convergence zone that would
>> help condense the birds into certain locations. You can expect convergence
>> of birds nearer the foothills than farther east as the mountains act as a
>> natural convergence area when southeast winds are dominant.  This doesn't
>> preclude the fact that good habitat attracts birds better than bad
>> habitat.  So it can always be worthwhile to check your patch multiple times
>> on a day like tomorrow (4/21)
>>
>> Yesterday (4/19) and today (4/20), the winds aloft have been very weak
>> promoting more soaring-bird migration but still allowing direct flight
>> migrations as well with less wind support to cover ground.  Tonight and
>> into most of tomorrow (4/21), expect the winds to be stronger aloft and
>> from the south for most of the day making for a stronger possibility of
>> turnover of birds.
>>
>>
>> https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/21/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.00,40,1897/loc=-105.00,40
>>  (The
>> green circle is on Boulder for reference only)
>>
>> I hope you can get a chance to get out (I know it is a work-day) for at
>> least a walk in your local patch.  You should have a nice opportunity for
>> some new birds (First-Of-Year/First-Of-Season), but they may not stick
>> around for long with continued south winds throughout the day into the
>> night unless your patch has good habitat and food.
>>
>> May the meteorology bless you tomorrow with birds.  Remember positive and
>> negative data are both useful to help us understand the overall meshing
>> between bird migration and weather patterns, so let us know what happens
>> for you tomorrow.  Best of luck.
>>
>> Bryan
>>
>> Bryan Guarente
>> Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
>> UCAR/The COMET Program
>> Boulder, CO
>>
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