Colext/Macondo
Cantina virtual de los COLombianos en el EXTerior
--------------------------------------------------
Esta noticia paso por Guayabo... De pronto es de interes para algunos
colextimacondianos. Antes va un comentario mio al respecto.
Chao mijiticas, Nestor Raul
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Pijume Diwesi <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: Re: Iranian Investments in Colombia...
Olvidandome de los detalles de caracter politico, estrategico y/o belico del
asunto (de donde hay tela que cortar!) .... solo queria anotar que esto de la
planta de procesamiento de carne en medio de la selva Amazonica es un poquitin
rarofono.
Los suelos amazonicos son deficientes en nutrientes y asi la tala de los
colonos tan solo crea campos de pastoreo (sabanas) empobrecidos apenas aptos
para la ganaderia extensiva, actividad que acelera el deterioro de los suelos
y que no se si daria para mantener toda una "planta procesadora" en Farclandia
En fin... no leo mas sobre esta asunto que se me enerva la sangre!
Chao mijiticas,
Nestor Raul
***************************************
On Thu, 2 Dec 1999, Matusalem wrote:
> STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update
> December 2, 1999
>
>
> Iranian Investment in Colombia Raises Suspicion
>
>
> Summary
>
> Colombian and Iranian officials have signed an unusual agreement:
> Iranians will invest $3 million in a meat-packing plant in the
> heart of Colombia's rebel-held jungle. Exactly why Bogota would
> encourage investment that benefits guerrillas who have fought for
> more than three decades is unclear. But the implications are
> extraordinary. Colombia's violent right wing will be angered. The
> region will risk increased international terrorism and invigorated
> trade in drugs for arms. The United States will probably sour on
> the Pastrana government, which may ultimately be weakened.
>
>
> Analysis
>
> On Nov. 11, a delegation of Iranian government and business
> representatives arrived in San Vicente del Caguan, a town deep in
> the jungles of southern Colombia that is held by the Revolutionary
> Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).
> [ http://www.stratfor.com/meaf/countries/colombiairanmap.htm ] The
> delegation visited to assess a site on which the Iranians will
> build a meat-packing plant and slaughterhouse that would process
> beef bound for Iran. The visit was the latest step in a process
> that began Oct. 21, when Colombian and Iranian officials signed an
> agreement committing $3 million in Iranian investment.
>
> There is, however, one major oddity: Colombia's major cattle
> production takes place on the other side of the Andes Mountains,
> more than 300 miles to the northwest. Near San Vicente del Caguan
> there is little but jungle. There are no major roads and precious
> little infrastructure. The town is, however, in the heart of drug-
> producing territory held by the FARC, the country's largest and
> most successful guerrilla movement after more than three decades of
> civil war.
>
> Sizable implications will grow from this comparatively small
> investment in a little town. The government of President Andres
> Pastrana may push his stalled peace process forward by placating
> leftist guerrillas. But the government is equally likely to spark
> anger among Colombia's most violent right-wing elements. By opening
> the door to Iran, the government unwittingly risks increasing the
> influence of Iranian-backed terrorists in South America. From
> nearly any angle, this investment will likely damage relations with
> Washington.
>
> With the apparent blessing of top Colombian officials, talks began
> in the spring, when a delegation of Iranian officials and
> businessmen visited the town of San Vicente del Caguan, which is in
> the municipality of Caqueta. On Oct. 21, Iran's ambassador to
> Colombia, Hossein Sheikh Zeineddin, and the office of San Vicente's
> mayor signed the deal. Significantly, the government's top peace
> negotiator with the guerrillas - peace commissioner Victor G.
> Ricardo - signed the agreement, acting as guarantor.
>
> But not everyone in the Pastrana government appears pleased;
> indeed, the military seems distinctly displeased. On Nov. 27,
> Colombian Defense Minister Luis Fernando Ramirez accused the
> Iranians, who resisted an inspection of their baggage, of being
> military advisors to the FARC, reported Agence France-Presse. Iran
> has denied that it is using the investment as a cover. In Tehran,
> Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi dismissed the charge as
> astonishing, according to the BBC's monitoring of Iranian official
> radio.
>
> The Pastrana government's motives are unclear. One possible
> explanation is that Colombia is in dire need of economic
> development. In recent testimony to Congress, Undersecretary of
> State Thomas Pickering described an economy in free fall. In the
> midst of a recession, its economy has contracted by 5.8 percent in
> the first quarter of 1999, and its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is
> forecasted to fall 3 to 4 percent by year's end. Unemployment
> stands at nearly 20 percent. But the Iranian investment seems like
> a poor start, improperly located even to lend any immediate help to
> the country's cattle industry.
>
> A more likely explanation is that the government is attempting to
> kick-start a badly stalled peace process. By steering investment
> into FARC-held territory, the government may be trying to get the
> guerrillas re-engaged in negotiations. The FARC has even intimated
> recently that it may not observe an upcoming Christmas cease-fire.
> Ricardo's role in securing the Iranian investment suggests that
> reviving the peace process is the true agenda. Another possibility
> - however remote - is that Ricardo was acting on his own. The
> president has remained largely silent on the entire investment
> deal.
>
> Regardless of the government's motives, the deal will undermine the
> country's right-wing elements and its violent paramilitaries. The
> right, too, is deeply involved in drug trafficking. And the right's
> paramilitaries are increasingly believed to be behind most of the
> country's politically-motivated murders. The right is not likely to
> take Iranian investment very well in the territory of its sometime
> business partners and longtime arch-enemies - leftist guerrillas.
> The government in Bogota can expect a backlash.
>
> The government is also cracking open the door to increased
> influence by both Tehran and the terrorist movements it has
> supported. South America is an important proxy battlefield for the
> Middle East's struggles. There appears to be a longstanding
> relationship between the FARC and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah
> [ http://www.stratfor.com/SERVICES/GIU/060399.ASP ]. Hezbollah has
> training camps in southern Brazil. Hezbollah has also been
> implicated in attacks on the Israeli embassy and a Jewish cultural
> center in Argentina.
>
> In the current deal, any Hezbollah presence could result in an
> increased flow in arms to the FARC; in turn, the FARC may find a
> way to use the new Iranian connection to export cocaine. The United
> States - the chief market for Colombian cocaine - is saturated.
> Colombia produces 80 percent of the world's cocaine. Demand and
> prices, however, are rising in other regions of the world, most
> notably Russia. In exchange, Hezbollah may find a way to ship arms
> from the other side of the world to Colombia.
>
> In a much larger sense, Iran stands to reap considerable benefits:
> It is now positioned to play an important role in the Western
> Hemisphere's most important civil war. The Iranian ambassador said
> his government hopes to aid the peace process because, after all,
> it does not need the additional beef, reported the Colombian weekly
> publication Semana on Nov. 10. Iran gains a toehold at the front
> line of the drug war. San Vicente is in the region where new, U.S.-
> trained counter-drug battalions will operate. Iran can also
> increase its influence on both the Colombian and Venezuelan oil
> industries.
>
> The United States is not likely to take any of this in stride.
> Investment in guerrilla-held territory will strike many in
> Washington as capitulation to the drug trade. And the mere presence
> of Iran in the most sensitive place in the Western Hemisphere is
> likely to force policymakers to re-think ties to Colombia. Pastrana
> may be using the Iranian deal to pressure Washington into
> delivering $1.5 billion in aid, only half of what Pastrana wants.
> Recent developments may quash aid altogether.
>
> A little over a year into his administration, the Colombian
> president has worked to bring peace to a country torn by decades of
> civil war. Pastrana is already weakened by his concession of land
> to the FARC. In a sticky position, attempting to satisfy the FARC,
> the right, everyday Colombians and the United States, Pastrana may
> see the Iranian investment as a chance to get the peace process
> back on track. Suffering from increasing criticism and declining
> popularity, the president is risking a renewed challenge from the
> right, upsetting the United States and regional turmoil. And those
> are the rewards only if the gambit succeeds.
>
>
>
> (c) 1999, Stratfor, Inc. http://www.stratfor.com/
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