Quoting Jason House <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
Looking at a single color, the winning percentage seems to shift by
0.2 to 0.4%... About what I'd expect to see. What confuses me though
is how to interpret the jump back and forth as the color changes
(about 8%). Are the percentages always the winning percentage for
black? Or is it the winning percentage for the color to move?
It is the latter, the winning percentage for the move just played.
Root is the position after the first move of black with white to move,
I changed
the colors in your table.
W: 54.3%
B: 46%
W: 54.6%
B: 46.3%
W: 54.7%
B: 47.6%
W: 54.9%
B: 47.0%
It looks like this because Valkyria evaluates the komi of 7.5 in this
case to be
in favor of white.
If komi is 0.5 then a 2-ply search gives:
W: 42.7%
B: 58.3%
clearly in favor of black as a sanity check.
If it's the winning percentage for the color to move, it seems really
strange that it'd go up for both colors as the principle variation
went on.
If it goes up for both players it might mean that the games get more hot, that
is, a pass become more and more catastrophic.
A more boring explanation is that as you go deep in the tree, for statistical
reasons the program most likely finds moves that have been overestimated, and
with deeper search these values will come closer to the average.
The quality of the moves go down rapidly and the last two in this sequence are
very dubious although perhaps slighlty better than a random move.
Normally I do
not include nodes that has been searched less than 1000 times in the principal
variation.
Best
Magnus
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