Magnus Persson wrote:
Quoting Jason House <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
Looking at a single color, the winning percentage seems to shift by
0.2 to 0.4%... About what I'd expect to see. What confuses me though
is how to interpret the jump back and forth as the color changes
(about 8%). Are the percentages always the winning percentage for
black? Or is it the winning percentage for the color to move?
It is the latter, the winning percentage for the move just played.
Root is the position after the first move of black with white to move,
I changed
the colors in your table.
W: 54.3%
B: 46%
W: 54.6%
B: 46.3%
W: 54.7%
B: 47.6%
W: 54.9%
B: 47.0%
Taking that into account, the winning percentages for white would be:
W: 54.3%
B: 54%
W: 54.6%
B: 53.7%
W: 54.7%
B: 52.4%
W: 54.9%
B: 53.0%
If it's the winning percentage for the color to move, it seems really
strange that it'd go up for both colors as the principle variation
went on.
If it goes up for both players it might mean that the games get more
hot, that
is, a pass become more and more catastrophic.
A more boring explanation is that as you go deep in the tree, for
statistical
reasons the program most likely finds moves that have been
overestimated, and
with deeper search these values will come closer to the average.
I'm guessing the 2nd explanation is probably the case.
Thanks a lot for generating that data for me. It was interesting to
see. I think it definitely shows the fluctuation by color to move.
I'll probably try and generate some pure MC numbers (without growing
trees) to see how they look. When I generate the data, I'll post it to
the list.
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