>> In Tichu, there seem to be bids ( Tichu and Grand Tichu ) which also reveal >> something about the bidder's hands.
Yes, from these bids you are able to tell that a player's hand is good. I can see it being helpful to give these players better cards in MC simulations. There are of course other signs that may hint at which players has which cards, which may be useful for biasing the simulation, too. > Bidding actions are not different from any other actions when it comes > to biasing distributions. At least the Math involved is the same. You > need to consider each MC simulation with a weight that is the > conditional probability that all the actions taken would have been > taken, given this distribution (this is an application of Bayes' > theorem). In order to make something like this work in practice, you > sometimes need to find clever tricks to make sure you don't miss the > distributions that have high weights. This is very important in poker, > but I don't expect it to be a big deal in Tichu. > > So it looks like it would be very important to have a model that will > quickly map a game situation to a probability distribution over the > possible actions, which could then be used both as an MC policy and as > a way to assign "likelihood" weights to the simulations. > > Álvaro. Can you elaborate how this model would work? So this would also tell which distribution of cards was likely given the current situation, in addition to telling which cards are likely to be played? _______________________________________________ Computer-go mailing list [email protected] http://dvandva.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/computer-go
