I think both are too fat for truly analytical answer. But number of people working in computer go vs arimaa and number of people playing the two games indicates that Go would be the 1st to have computer beating top humans. Last time I logged in into arimaa server there were 11 people there. Drawing from such a shallow talent pool coming up with good ideas will take huge time.
And I do not think Arimaa has chance. It lacks the violent nature chess nor is strategy as subtle as in Go - not to mention violent nature of Go which in my games usually happens the wrong way around. And most importantly if I want to play I can easily find someone to play chess with me, with bit of trouble i would find someone to play Go but for Arimaa... I would need to teach rules to someone. And in in these games competitive factor is huge, no competition id there is no one to compete with. PP
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