> Oil, coal and gas will eventually be replaced as > primary energy generation sources when other energy > sources become either economically (I'm looking at > you, solar) or technologically (fusion) viable and > also as consumers increase demand for alternative > energy sources
This is correct in terms of economic theory; the problem is that it isn't forward-looking. As long as oil prices remain low, there's little incentive for the private sector to invest a lot of capital in alternative sources, especially in carbon-neutral alternative sources. By the time there is sufficient incentive, it may be too late. Last summer's high prices had no natural cause. They were created by speculation, not by supply/demand issues--in fact, supply was up and demand was down. My understanding (and this is something that I've heard but haven't researched) is that, with prices back down, already the ratio of efficient to inefficient vehicle sales has dropped, and people are driving more. Consumer memory appears to be very short. Given this situation, it's entirely possible that, if left to market forces only, development of alternatives won't come in time to avoid some very nasty consequences. This is why government support for research might not be a bad thing; one of the functions of good government is to support things like this when it's necessary and the private market isn't going to cut it. It just has to be smart enough to avoid foolishness like ethanol, hydrogen, and biodiesel. ************************************************************************* ** List info, subscription management, list rules, archives, privacy ** ** policy, calmness, a member map, and more at http://www.cguys.org/ ** *************************************************************************
