Mariners have been seeking the fabled route to the Orient for 500 years. But
is its opening a sign of impending environmental catastrophe?
Special report: the weather

Martin Kettle in Washington
Monday September 11, 2000

Global warming in the Arctic may have finally achieved something that
generations of explorers from Tudor times to the present day failed to
accomplish - the opening up one of the world's most fabled trade routes to
international commerce.
Sixty years ago, the St Roch, a ship belonging to the Royal Canadian Mounted
Police (RCMP) battled its way through the pack ice of two winters at the top
of the world to complete the first west to east journey through the
North-west Passage after 27 months at sea.

This year, another RCMP ship, named the St Roch II in honour of its 1940
predecessor, completed the same voyage from the Pacific to the Atlantic in
just over a month, finally emerging into Baffin Bay, west of Greenland, last
week.

At no point in its journey across the Arctic ocean north of Canada did the
St Roch II encounter any of the pack ice which defeated so many of its
predecessors in the search for a westerly sea route from Europe to the
Pacific Spice Islands.

"Concern should be registered with the fact that we didn't see any ice," the
vessel's skipper Sgt Ken Burton reported last week. "There were some bergs,
but nothing to cause any anxiety. We saw some ribbons of multi-year ice
floes, all small and fragmented, and we were able to steer around them."

As so often, though, one man's environmental concern is another's financial
opportunity. The success of the St Roch II's summer crossing opens up the
possibility that commercial shipping may eventually begin to use the route -
shortening the journey between Europe and Asia by around 5,000 miles and
sharply reducing competitive costs.

"It is still a risky venture, but the day of the famed North-west Passage,
the shortcut to the Orient, may be just around the corner," Sgt Burton said.

That possibility has raised fears among conservationists that the regular
use of the Arctic ocean by large commercial ships could cause some of the
environmental damage that has already been done to Alaskan waters and
coastlines by increased shipping, including cruise ships.

At least two other ships apart from the St Roch II have cruised in the
Northwest Passage this summer, one from the United States and the other from
New Zealand. The growth of maritime traffic this year is a sign of things to
come, the conservationists believe.

Environmental fears


The St Roch II's voyage is another dramatic sign that the temperature of the
Arctic ocean could be rising to a point at which existing assumptions about
the once Frozen North may need to be rethought - though the causes of the
change are still fiercely debated.

Comparison of submarine sonar probes beneath the Arctic ice suggest that the
thickness of the polar cap is now less than 60% of what it was less than
half a century ago. Satellite photographs show that the size of the Arctic
ice cap in the midsummer months is now some 6% smaller than it was in 1980.
Last month it was reported that clear water had been found at the North
Pole, though subsequent reports have called into question whether this was
as unique as it was first claimed.

"We don't know enough about the Arctic to know if this is global warming,
climate change, or maybe we were just plain lucky," Sgt Burton said.

The St Roch II left Vancouver on July 1 on its journey around the north of
the North American land mass, aiming to reach Halifax, Nova Scotia, by
October 10, before sailing on to New York. Its voyage through the normally
frozen area from Tuktoyaktuk near the Alaskan border to Baffin Bay could
have been accomplished even more quickly had it not been for a number of
land visits which the St Roch II made to isolated outposts along the route.

For more than 500 years, sailors have tried to find a western sea route
linking Europe with China and Japan. From John Cabot in the 1490s, to Martin
Frobisher in the 1570s, to Roald Amundsen in the early 1900s, some of the
most famous explorers in history have struggled to find the elusive
North-west Passage.

During his voyage, Sgt Burton and his crew found further evidence of one of
the most famous earlier expeditions, when an Inuk hunter led them to a
series of graves and an abandoned camp thought to belong to Sir John
Franklin's lost expedition of 1845. The expedition, which included two ships
and 128 men, was last spotted frozen in the Arctic ice in 1847. More than 30
subsequent expeditions have failed to adequately answer the questions about
the fate of Franklin and his party.


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