"WORST-CASE SCENARIO" FOR RUSSIAN DEMOGRAPHY Interfax Moscow, 11th September: Russian State Statistics Committee reports indicate that the demographic situation in the country is unfolding according to the worst of the expected scenarios. Interfax experts drew this conclusion on the basis of statistical reports and forecasts made in the first half of 1998. Experts composed three scenarios of the development of the demographic situation until the year 2015. The favourable scenario relied on a slight rise in the birth rate, a slowdown of the death rate and growing migration encouraged by economic recovery. In this case at the end of 2000 Russia was expected to have a population of 146.2m and in 2015 - 147.2m. The second scenario implied birth and death rates remaining at the 1997 level and a slight rise in migration. In this case at the end of 2000 the country was expected to have a population of 145.6m and in 2015 - 138.1m. The most pessimistic scenario was based on an expectation of a new rise in the death rate and a simultaneous fall in the birth rate and in migration, including migration from rural to urban areas, until 2015. In such circumstances in 2000 Russia would have a population of 144.7m and at the end of 2015 - 130.3m. The latest statistical reports say that at the beginning of July 2000 Russia had a population of 145.1m, falling by 425,000 in the first half of the year. _______________________________________________ Crashlist resources: http://website.lineone.net/~resource_base To change your options or unsubscribe go to: http://lists.wwpublish.com/mailman/listinfo/crashlist
