This thread has drifted away a bit from the signs to the portent.
Some signs:
today's paper says that 13 major cities are in danger of overbuilding
commercial real estate.
today's paper says that for PG&E and So. Calif. Edison, two of the
largest corporations in the world, the deficits from this summer's Calif
electricity crisis now equal half their net worth and technical
insolvancy is possible by next year if things aren't fixed. (For
"fixed" read "the burden passed to customers.")
Cummins diesel the other day reported financial woes because heavy truck
sales have sagged. Why would they weaken in a permanent boom?
Technology sales are flattening
The Dow has been flat for almost two years -- where is all the profit
that supposedly been holding up consumer spending?
Consumers squeezed by debt and facing very large jumps in home heating
and electricity costs in the weeks ahead. Commuting costs way up.
Junk bonds losing favor and corporate debt quite high.
No soft landing, more like the Concorde on Firestone tires, it seems to
me.
Actually the Firestone reference appeals to me. You are roaring along
in your SUV, tailgaiting the weaker folks in the fast lane, the CD
playing and the stock prices coming in on you cell phone. Suddenly you
are upside down in the ditch, lucky to have survived.
And Air France is suing Continental for dropping a part of a plane on
the runway. The part had fallen off a DC 10 and nobody noticed for a
few weeks. Didn't need that part anyway. Maybe it isn't the tires,
maybe it is debris in the road.
Gene Coyle
_______________________________________________
Crashlist resources: http://website.lineone.net/~resource_base
To change your options or unsubscribe go to:
http://lists.wwpublish.com/mailman/listinfo/crashlist
