I guess, like flying an airplane, I like to "cross-check the instruments"
from time to time; while no one indicator may 'signal' a trend, a number of
indicators in consort may ; that's all!
- and a 52% dive by Apple in one day is significant, if only, that it
happened; [if YOU owned Apple it would be VERY significant - I don't]; but
taken in the context of a 22% dive by Intel a few days earlier, begins to
tell a story (maybe)...
can't say what "it" is, in fact; I just hope I'll know it when I see it!
maybe that's why I keep looking...
Perry
----- Original Message -----
From: Julien Pierrehumbert <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Saturday, September 30, 2000 14:56
Subject: Re: [CrashList] Fwd from PEN-L on warning signs
> >and the 52% drop for Apple yesterday...in one day!
>
> Why did they warn at the end of the quarter? Anyway, a little perspective,
> Perry? Even if the stock was over 70$ 6 monthes ago, a year ago the stock
> was at 30$ and now it's at 25$. Is it a big deal? It's only one company,
and a
> company which is in a peculiar competitive postition (people don't know
what
> to think about it).
> Another interesting stock is CMGI: The company has been losing 40 cents
per
> share per month for the past twelve monthes. In March, the stock was worth
> more than 160 dollars and it's now worth a bit more than 25, the level at
which it
> was in around 20 monthes ago. But it's still up more than 4000% over the
last 5
> years (compare with around +450% for Intel and Microsoft and +150% for the
> S&P500)! Two years ago, it was still worth less than 10 dollars...
>
> >has it begun?
>
> I have been consitently wrong in the past. Everytime I thought "it" had
begun, it
> has been the start of a huge rally. ;-)
> Nevertheless, my opinion is that despite the fact that the imbalances
(what a
> smart word :-) are near all-time highs, they are not as severe as they had
been
> and, more importantly, the momentum is currently not towards a worsening
of
> the situation as it has been during several periods this year. Of course,
it could
> change ANY DAY...
> As to obscure indicators, it seems that the TED spread closed above 75 BPs
> for two days in a row while utilities rose... for six days in a row (from
366 to 398
> on the DJUA)!
>
> BTW, what's "it" for you? If it's THE crash and not simple a financial
crash, I
> suspect you may be thinking that the stock market is more important than
it is.
> THE crash will not be annouced by a drop in the share price of Apple.
>
> Julien
>
>
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