Global Trends 2015:
A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts
located at: http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/globaltrends2015/index.html
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NIC 2000-02, December 2000
This paper was approved for publication by the National Foreign Intelligence Board
under the authority of the Director of Central Intelligence.
Prepared under the direction of the National Intelligence Council.
Letter from the Director of Central Intelligence
Letter from the Chairman of the National Intelligence Council
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note on Process
In undertaking this comprehensive analysis, the NIC worked actively with a range of
nongovernmental institutions and experts. We began the analysis with two workshops
focusing on drivers and alternative futures, as the appendix describes.
Subsequently, numerous specialists from academia and the private sector contributed
to every aspect of the study, from demographics to developments in science and
technology, from the global arms market to implications for the United States. Many
of the judgments in this paper derive from our efforts to distill the diverse views
expressed at these conferences or related workshops. Major conferences cosponsored
by the NIC with other government and private centers in support of Global Trends
2015 included:
Foreign Reactions to the Revolution in Military Affairs (Georgetown University).
Evolution of the Nation-State (University of Maryland).
Trends in Democratization (CIA and academic experts).
American Economic Power (Industry & Trade Strategies, San Francisco, CA).
Transformation of Defense Industries (International Institute for Strategic Studies,
London, UK).
Alternative Futures in War and Conflict (Defense Intelligence Agency and Naval War
College, Newport, RI, and CIA).
Out of the Box and Into the Future: A Dialogue Between Warfighters and Scientists on
Far Future Warfare (Potomac Institute, Arlington, VA).
Future Threat Technologies Symposium (MITRE Corporation, McLean, VA).
The Global Course of the Information Revolution: Technological Trends (RAND
Corporation, Santa Monica, CA).
The Global Course of the Information Revolution: Political, Economic, and Social
Consequences (RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA).
The Middle East: The Media, Information Technology, and the Internet (The National
Defense University, Fort McNair, Washington, DC).
Global Migration Trends and Their Implications for the United States (Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC).
Alternative Global Futures: 2000-2015 (Department of State/Bureau of Intelligence
and Research and CIA's Global Futures Project).
In October 2000, the draft report was discussed with outside experts, including
Richard Cooper and Joseph Nye (Harvard University), Richard Haass (Brookings
Institution), James Steinberg (Markle Foundation), and Jessica Mathews (Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace). Their comments and suggestions are incorporated
in the report. Daniel Yergin (Cambridge Energy Research Associates) reviewed and
commented on the final draft.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contents
Note on Process
Overview
The Drivers and Trends
Key Uncertainties: Technology Will Alter Outcomes
Key Challenges to Governance: People Will Decide
Discussion
Population Trends
Divergent Aging Patterns
Movement of People
Health
Natural Resources and Environment
Food
Water
Energy
Environment
Science and Technology
Information Technology
Biotechnology
Other Technologies
The Global Economy
Dynamism and Growth
Unequal Growth Prospects and Distribution
Economic Crises and Resilience
National and International Governance
Nonstate Actors
Criminal Organizations and Networkss
Changing Communal Identities and Networks
Overall Impacts on States
International Cooperation
Future Conflict
Internal Conflicts
Transnational Terrorism
Interstate Conflicts
Reacting to US Military Superiority
Major Regions
East and Southeast Asia
South Asia
Russia and Eurasia
Middle East and North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Europe
Canada
Latin America
Appendix
Four Alternative Global Futures
_______________________________________________
Crashlist resources: http://website.lineone.net/~resource_base
To change your options or unsubscribe go to:
http://lists.wwpublish.com/mailman/listinfo/crashlist
