Observer Ed Vulliamy in New York and Gaby Hinsliff Sunday January 14, 2001 A new arms race looms this weekend after reports that Russia and China are preparing to enter into a historic pact, spurred by plans by the incoming Bush administration to plough ahead with a vast missile defence screen. The controversial National Missile Defence programme (NMD) - nicknamed Son of Star Wars - would deploy thousands of air defence missiles to shoot down incoming intercontinental ballistic weapons fired by rogue states or international terrorists. To be effective, the US would have to be allowed to use the early warning station at Fylingdales in Yorkshire. Former Defence Minister Peter Kilfoyle, writing in The Observer today, warns Tony Blair against the scheme,saying it is a 'dangerous flight of fancy' that would leave Britain vulnerable to attack. The prospect of renewed international tensions came as Moscow and Beijing announced the forging of a treaty and strategic alliance over arms and space programmes which could rupture the new, post-Cold War world order. If the treaty is developed into a fully fledged alliance, it would be the first to be joined by China in decades. A source in President Clinton's State Department said: 'The Russians are pretty baffled and more than a little scared. While they want to be seen to welcome and work with the incoming President, they are bound to wonder who this amount of warfaring material is supposed to be against.' The French Defence Minister is travelling to Moscow for talks on the new missile system, which France opposes. The British Government is split on the issue, but The Observer can reveal that, privately, it has warned Washington that it should go ahead with NMD only if it can secure international agreement. 'We said to the Clinton administration that we do not want you to proceed unilaterally,' said one Whitehall source. 'That is also the stance we are starting to adopt with the new administration. 'Don't underestimate Number 10's strategy on this - it is not about saying "come on board and roll all over me".' However both sides of the debate accept the US is not backing down on the idea. Bush's choice for Pentagon Chief, Donald Rumsfeld, has called for a total overhaul of US defence strategy and weaponry, with vast spending increases and the missile defence screen at the core of the new strategy. Rumsfeld, who also held the office under President Ford, is heir to the hawkish wing which pushed Star Wars and is understood to have dismissed the anti-ballistic missile treaty with Russia, pivotal to the halting of the arms race, as 'ancient history'. Threats from China and 'suspicions' towards Russia were discussed last week between Bush's defence staff and Clinton's defence chief William Cohen. One aide said both nations were 'not allies and certainly not friends'. The aggressive signals from Washington have alarmed the Foreign Office in London. Although the Ministry of Defence has been keener not to offend the Americans, insiders say even there opinion is divided on whether Britain should allow its base to be used in what could be an echo of the Greenham Common debacle, inspiring public protest and a likely rebellion on the Labour backbenches. Kilfoyle says the plan will be 'hugely destabilising' to international relations in a clear warning to Blair not to become involved. 'The British Government will need to decide just how much it's worth to offer itself as a hostage to the fortunes of a misguided - literally and metaphorically - strategic defence initiative,' he says. 'If America's putative enemies do have plans to suicidally attack America, why should we turn ourselves into the primary target?' Star Wars was pushed into the domestic spotlight by William Hague's announcement last week that a Tory government would support it. Ministers had hoped that if Al Gore got into the White House, he might drop the idea. But now the issue has become an awkward test of the 'special relationship' in the post-Clinton era. Downing Street believes technical problems with the system - in tests the interceptors meant to shoot down missiles missed them all - will mean the decision can be put off for months if not years. The Sino-Russian pact has its origins in a visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Beijing last summer, but the final agreements were sealed just before Christmas. Yesterday, the chairman of the strategic research department at the US Naval Defence College, Jonathan Pollack, said: 'These negotiations are being publicised on the eve of the Bush presidency. Both leaderships are very uneasy about the new administration's plans to accelerate missile defence'. Pollack said such a move would return the global pattern to an East-West conflict. _______________________________________________ Crashlist website: http://website.lineone.net/~resource_base
