-Caveat Lector-

Brazil: IMF deal crumbling

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Brazil: IMF deal crumbling
A chorus of disapproval from Brazil's politicians, church leaders, and state
governors threatens to undermine the deal reached between the International
Monetary Fund and the Brazilian government last week.

Under the terms of the agreement, yet to be ratified, Brazil would receive an
additional tranche of $9bn (�6bn) in return for making further budget cuts and
pledging to keep inflation in single figures.


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President Fernando Henrique Cardoso pledged he would keep to his tough stance
on inflation and the budget in order to defend the currency, the real, which
has been devalued by nearly 40% since the crisis broke.

But politicians warned they would not support further tax increases, after the
politically painful round of tax measures just passed by the Congress.

"The executive government has to start sending signals on spending cuts before
we will support new tax increases," said Odelmo Leao, a political ally of
President Cardoso.

The government admitted it had no plans yet for spending cuts, but called on a
spirit of unity and sacrifice.

"There is still no decision on how the new division of sacrifices will be, but
the moment demands sacrifices by all," said budget ministry executive
secretary Martus Tavares.

Meanwhile, Brazil's influential Catholic bishops accused the government of
"total submission" to the IMF and said the deal had not been adequately
discussed by the Congress or the people.

The new agreement would lead to "worse unemployment, social inequality, and
extreme poverty," the Commission of the Bishops Conference of Brazil said.

Test of wills with governors

Perhaps most ominously, the government was bracing for a new showdown with
state governors who want to reduce the amount they owe to the Federal
Government.

President Cardoso has cancelled a meeting that was scheduled for Monday with
the opposition governors in Brasilia.

He said he will not re-open debt negotiations with the states after the
governors published a statement calling for a ceiling on their debt burden.

"At this time, what the country expects from everyone is the courage to assume
responsibility and not a political manifesto," President Cardoso said.

The opposition governors, led by former President Itamar Franco, now governor
of Minas Gerais state, have been campaigning for a relaxation of the tough
budget targets that Brazil agreed to with the IMF.

Last month it was the declaration of a moratorium on its debt repayment by
Minas Gerais that precipitated the devaluation of the Brazilian currency.

But the situation now resembles a political feud between the two Presidents
who were once firm allies.

Newspapers have been calling for the two men to cool their antagonism for the
sake of the country.

"Because of the political responsibility they have earned in public life,
Fernando Henrique and Itamar Franco have an obligation to lower their guard,
cool their spirits and trade belligerence for an agreement in favour of
Brazil," said the Jornal do Brasil in an editorial.


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