-Caveat Lector- Global Intelligence Update >Red Alert >December 15, 1998 > >Report Surfaces of Another U.S. Attempt on Bin Laden > >The pro-Islamic Pakistani newspaper "Khabrain" reported on >December 12 that "teams of American commandos returned from >Afghanistan to the U.S. after their futile two-week operation to >arrest the mujahid of the Muslim nation, Osama Bin Laden." The >newspaper went on to say that these teams were sent to >Afghanistan through Pakistan and that the operation was carried >out with information obtained from recently arrested associates >of Bin Laden. The newspaper also cited alleged CIA reports that >Bin Laden goes to Kandahar or Jalalabad for Friday prayers and >also resides part of the time in Zail, Kandoza and Khost. >However, he had reportedly changed his routine following the >arrests of some of his closest aides. > >The report also alleged that the two teams were comprised of >"American commandos" and a large number of CIA agents. The >newspaper cited other reports by local newspapers claiming that >CIA agents had grown long beards and had been disguised as >Tablighi Jamat preachers. Tablighi Jamat, which roughly >translates as "preachers for Islam," are ultra-conservative >Pakistani clergymen that are highly discouraged from engaging in >politics. > >While this is one report from an ideologically driven Pakistani >newspaper, it is becoming ever more difficult for us not to >believe this and other reports of U.S. sponsored attempts to >capture or kill Bin Laden. On December 1 we reported allegations >by the Pakistani newspaper "Ausaf" that U.S. operatives were >involved in a failed attempt to assassinate Bin Laden >(http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/120198.asp). Before that >came the well-publicized global sweep in which the U.S. rounded >up several high-ranking Bin Laden associates. Before that, of >course, came the U.S. cruise missile strike on Bin Laden's >training camp in Afghanistan -- an attack admittedly aimed at >eliminating Bin Laden himself. > >There have been continuing reports that the U.S. is stepping up >its efforts against Bin Laden and his network in Europe and Asia. >What makes this new report interesting is the amount of >preparation that would have been necessary to launch an operation >of this magnitude. If the attempt was made using solely U.S. >operatives, the U.S. would have had to train the special forces >or CIA agents of Middle Eastern descent in a very difficult >dialect of Pashtun or Urdu and would have to have had "long- >bearded" CIA agents in Pakistan and Afghanistan for quite some >time in order to effectively blend into the population. >Alternatively, the U.S. could have drawn on agents of allied >military or intelligence services from within the region. The >degree of detail in the Khabrain article, if it is to be >believed, could only have come from the inside -- perhaps from >within Pakistani intelligence. > >The U.S. is clearly bracing for Bin Laden's response to the >cruise missile attacks, the arrests of Bin Laden's aides, and >these assassination/apprehension attempts. On December 14, the >New York Times cited a statement issued by the U.S. embassies in >Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates >warning of the "strong possibility" of terrorist attacks against >one or more American targets in the region in the next month. >The warning was followed by an imposed curfew on the 1,000 U.S. >personnel at the U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. In >addition, they were ordered not to gather in large numbers at >public places. "There is a strong possibility," according to the >New York Times, "that terrorist elements are planning an attack >against U.S. targets in the Gulf, possibly in the next 30 days. >Americans in the region should remain alert to any suspicious >activity and take precautionary steps to reduce the profile and >vulnerability of any United States facilities." The report does >not explicitly state which terrorist organization might be >plotting attacks, but it did reiterate the standing threat that >Bin Laden issued against Americans in the region. The alleged >attempt to capture Bin Laden could have been an effort to preempt >attacks such as those that Americans in the Gulf are now bracing >for. However, it is also plausible that these alerts could be a >result of the alleged failure of the attempt to capture Bin >Laden. > >Over all, even though this report came out of a radical Pakistani >paper, we believe it may be more than groundless propaganda. Bin >Laden and his organization remains a threat to U.S. interests and >a political thorn in Washington's side. Additionally, there is >another issue that has underlain many of Washington's recent >decisions, and which may be behind an urgent campaign against Bin >Laden and a willingness to risk the lives of U.S. agents and >commandos in a very difficult operation. The U.S. House of >Representatives Judiciary Committee has voted to refer all four >articles of impeachment against President Clinton to the full >House, where an impeachment vote is scheduled before the end of >the year. Clinton and his advisors, desperate for a foreign >policy triumph to undermine the impeachment effort, would love to >be able to come up with Bin Laden's head. The converse is, >should a foreign policy debacle occur, such as a successful >terrorist attack or the very public failure of another U.S. >attempt on Bin Laden, while the impeachment debate or trial is >underway, it has the potential to drive the last nail in >Clinton's presidency. Finally, if these reports are true and >U.S. intelligence has failed, what comes next? > >STRATFOR, Inc. >504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 >Austin, TX 78701 >Phone: 512-583-5000 >Fax: 512-583-5025 >> > > > DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance�not soapboxing! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory', with its many half-truths, misdirections and outright frauds is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. 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