>From http://www.unaids.org/highband/fact/saepap98.html Johannesburg, 30 November 1998 en fran�ais en Espa�ol AIDS in Africa <A>frica continues to dwarf the rest of the world on the AIDS balance sheet. According to UNAIDS and WHO estimates, 7 out of 10 people newly infected with HIV in 1998 live in sub-Saharan Africa; among children under 15, the proportion is 9 out of 10. Of all AIDS deaths since the epidemic started, 83% have been in the region. At least 95% of all AIDS orphans have been African.* Yet only one-tenth of the world's population lives in Africa south of the Sahara. The sheer number of Africans affected by the epidemic is overwhelming. Since the start of the epidemic, an estimated 34 million people living in sub-Saharan Africa have been infected with HIV. Some 11.5 million of those people have already died, a quarter of them children. In the course of 1998, AIDS will have been responsible for an estimated two million funerals in Africa. By the end of 1998, there will be an estimated 21.5 million men and women living with HIV in Africa, plus another 1 million children. Some 4 million of these people will have contracted the infection in 1998 alone. Hot-spots of infection No country in Africa has escaped the virus, and yet some are far worse affected than others. The bulk of new infections continue to be concentrated in East Africa and especially in the southern part of the continent. The southern African region in fact holds the majority of the world's hard-hit countries: �In Botswana, Namibia, Swaziland and Zimbabwe, current estimates show that over one person in five between the ages of 15 and 49 is living with HIV or AIDS. �Zimbabwe is especially hard-hit. There are 25 surveillance sites in the country where blood taken from pregnant women is tested anonymously as a way of tracking HIV infection. The most recent data, from 1997, show that HIV prevalence remained below 10% in just two of these sites. In the remaining 23 sites, between a fifth and half of all pregnant women were found to be infected with HIV. At least a third are likely to pass the infection on to their baby. �South Africa trailed behind some of its neighbours in HIV infection levels at the start of the 1990s. Unfortunately, it is catching up fast. This year, just over 50% of all new infections in southern Africa occurred in this one country. �In South Africa, as in Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda and Zambia, between one in seven and one in nine adults live with HIV infection. �In Central African Republic, C�te d'Ivoire, Djibouti and Kenya, at least one in ten adults are HIV-infected. (Source: Department of Health, South Africa) In general, West Africa is less affected by HIV than southern or East Africa. Some countries in central Africa have also seen HIV remain relatively stable, while in neighbouring countries rates have continued to climb. Early and sustained prevention efforts can be credited with these lower rates in some places- Senegal provides a good example. But elsewhere, where far less has been done to encourage safer sex, the reasons for the relative stability remain obscure. Research is under way to explain differences between epidemics in various countries. Factors that may play a role include patterns of sexual networking, levels of condom use with different partners, and promptness in diagnosing and curing other sexually transmitted diseases (which if left untreated can magnify the risk of HIV transmission through sex as much as 20-fold). Young people in danger In the worst-affected countries, young people are especially at risk. In sub-Saharan Africa, as in many countries in the industrialized world and elsewhere, people embark on their sexual lives when they are in their teens-often in their early or mid-teens. In Kenya, for example, one study of nearly 10 000 schoolgirls between the ages of 12 and 24 reported that on average, girls lose their virginity when they are between 14 and 15 years old. And yet to date, there is no reproductive health education in schools that would prepare girls to avoid early sex or to adopt safer sexual practices. The Population Reference Bureau estimates that every year babies are born to 14% of young women aged 15-19 in sub-Saharan Africa, compared with 6% of young women in other less developed countries and just 3% in the industrialized world. Many of these births are outside of marriage. A recent study in Namibia showed that close to 40% of births were to unmarried women. Single motherhood was not associated with ignorance or marginalization-over a third of single mothers were educated to secondary level or beyond, compared with just over a quarter of married mothers. High levels of teen pregnancy, and pregnancy outside of marriage, do tell us two things: young people are very sexually active, and few of them use condoms. If young people are having unprotected sex with several partners, or if their single partner has ever had other partners, they are exposed not just to pregnancy but to infection with sexually transmitted diseases, including the one that can kill them: HIV. Recent HIV surveillance data show how early this exposure can occur and how devastating its consequences can be. In Rwanda, over 4% of both boys and girls aged 12-14 in one community study already tested positive for HIV. In South Africa, the number of pregnant girls under 15 tested for HIV in 1997 was relatively small, but a distressing 9.5% of them were found to be infected with the virus. Among the far greater number of pregnant South Africans tested in their late teens, nearly 13% were HIV-positive. Often, girls become infected at younger ages than boys. A recent community-based study in one area of Kenya showed that 22% of 15-19-year-old girls in the general population were already infected with HIV, compared with just 4% of boys of the same age. In a Zambian study of young city-dwellers in the same age group, HIV infection was reported in 12.3% of the girls and 4.5% of the boys. In the next-higher age bracket, 20-24 years, a study in Ethiopia found that 35.4% of young women were infected-three times higher than the 10.7% rate among the men. This age gap at infection indicates that young girls are getting infected through sex with older men. Many girls may choose such relationships because they come with gifts, money or other favours attached. But some will simply have been powerless to resist. In Kenya, one young woman in four said she lost her virginity because she had been forced to. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the proportion was close to a third. Unwilling sex with an infected partner carries a high risk of HIV infection for girls. When the vagina is dry or when force is used, abrasions and cuts are more likely and the virus can more easily find its way into the bloodstream. What's more, condom use is unlikely in such situations. (Source: Taha et al. AIDS 1998 12:197-203) As infection rises in the general population, so does the likelihood of encountering an infected partner (especially an older partner) early in one's sexual career. Over time, then, new infections become increasingly concentrated in the youngest age groups. In a recent study in Malawi, HIV prevalence had built up to high levels in older age groups, but the bulk of new infections were occurring in younger women. People continue to be at risk for HIV throughout their sexually active lives, and all should benefit from services and information that allow them to reduce their risk of infection. However, efforts to promote safer behaviour are especially crucial for young people, who in mature epidemics are those at greatest risk. Prevention efforts also seem to have a greater chance of success among younger people than among people whose sexual habits are well ingrained. For example, following active condom promotion and education campaigns in school and among youth groups, dramatic declines have been recorded in infection rates among teenagers in Uganda and Tanzania. HIV and AIDS -making themselves felt HIV can spread silently for many years before the infection develops into symptomatic AIDS and becomes a cause of recurring illness and, finally, death. During 1998 Africa held 5 500 funerals a day for people dying of AIDS, but the death rate is set to increase. Countries where the epidemic is rather recent, such as South Africa, are still far from feeling the major impact of AIDS, despite already high levels of HIV in the general population. But South Africans can anticipate the likely impact by looking at countries where the epidemic has been longer established-Uganda in East Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe in southern Africa. Millions of adults are dying young or in early middle age. They leave behind children grieving and struggling to survive without a parent's care. Many of those dying have surviving partners who are themselves infected and in need of care. Their families have to find money to pay for their funerals, and their employers-schools, factories, hospitals-have to train other staff to replace them at the workplace. Children on the brink Africa is experiencing a growing tide of children living in AIDS-affected households or attempting to survive after the death of their mother, or both parents, to AIDS. Often, the extended family- itself decimated by AIDS-can or will no longer cope. But institutions are not the answer either, not to a problem of this scale. Solutions have to be found in the community. In Zimbabwe, people are rising to the challenge. Many village heads have designated land to be cultivated by all villagers to feed orphans and families of those suffering from debilitating illness, usually AIDS-related. In some areas, church groups have begun orphan-visiting programmes. Women are trained to identify the neediest orphan households in their area; they then visit them on a regular basis, providing all-important guidance and emotional support and helping with basic necessities. Because these programmes work from within the community they are affordable, costing an average of just 68 US cents per child per month-a small price to pay for a service that will help keep orphans woven into the fabric of society. Fostering initiatives have also begun on commercial farms. The challenge to business Since many economies in the region are in flux, it is hard to determine exactly what the impact of HIV is on national economies as a whole. However it is clear that businesses are already beginning to suffer. In Zimbabwe, for instance, life insurance premiums quadrupled in just two years because of AIDS deaths. Some companies report a doubling of their health bills. In Botswana, companies estimate that AIDS-related costs will soar from under one percent of the wage bill now to five percent in six years' time, because of the rapid rise in infection in the last few years. In Zambia, one large company reported in 1995 that its costs from AIDS illness and death exceeded its total profits for the year. There is a similar report from a large Tanzanian company. Prevention programmes for workers have been shown to cut costs as well as infections in Africa. While costs vary significantly between countries, it is estimated that a worker with AIDS costs a business in southern Africa around US$ 200 a year in lost productivity, treatment, benefits and replacement training. The costs for senior and skilled staff will be far higher. And yet a study in Tanzania has demonstrated that treatment of other sexually transmitted diseases costing as little as US$ 2.11 per case can cut the number of people getting HIV by over 40%. New HIV infections in Zimbabwean factories with worker-driven prevention campaigns were a third lower than in factories without such campaigns. The campaigns cost US$ 6.00 per worker-less, in other words, than a single set of protective overalls. Caring for orphans on Zimbabwe's commercial farms Some 2 million people-a fifth of the nation's population-live on Zimbabwe's commercial farms. Many are immigrants or the children of immigrants, and many more are Zimbabweans who have moved there from their native villages. Because the majority no longer have any regular contact with their extended families back home, this leaves children with no one to take them in if their parents should die-an increasingly frequent occurrence. A survey at the beginning of 1996 estimated 2.1 orphans per farm. Now a new registration system shows that numbers have climbed to around 10 orphans per farm. The average age of these children is 10. That is the downside. The upside is that many farm owners are increasingly concerned about the welfare of farm workers and their families, and are supporting initiatives to care for these orphans on their farms. Most of these initiatives centre on finding other farm families to foster abandoned children and orphans. This is more difficult than it sounds, since many people believe orphaned children will bring bad luck. "After two months my husband wanted me to turn the children away," recounted Monica Kamombe, who, with limited support from the farmer who employs her, provides a home for four orphaned brothers. "Everyone in the village came knocking at the door to say if we kept these unlucky children the ngozi, the bad spirits, would get us". She persisted and now others in the village have followed her example. The country will need many, many more caring foster parents like Mrs Kamombe. In two years' time, because of AIDS the country will be burying some 350 people a day, and by the year 2005 the government estimates there will be over 900 000 children under 15 struggling to survive without a mother. A hard-to-break silence For all the palpable effects of AIDS, a silence born of shame and blame continues to shroud the epidemic in many of even the hardest-hit countries. A recent study of voluntary counselling and testing offered to pregnant women in developing countries found that in many places with extremely high HIV prevalence, women refused testing or did not return for their test results. This was the case even when interventions that might help them give birth to a healthy baby were being offered to those who tested HIV-positive. In C�te d'Ivoire, for instance, fewer than half of more than 13 000 pregnant women in two study sites accepted to be tested and then came back for their results. More worrying still, in a majority of sites it was the HIV-positive women who were less likely to return. This correlation was seen in South Africa's Soweto, too, where almost all pregnant women in the study agreed to be tested, four-fifths overall came back for their test results, but only half of those who were HIV-positive sought out their results. These systematic differences suggest that women who may be aware that they have been exposed to infection, or who have taken risks, shrink from learning their HIV status. There is evidence that the fear and denial provoked by AIDS extends even to people working in the health sector. One study in southern Africa sought to record the number of needlestick injuries in primary health care clinics. Researchers found almost none-an unlikely scenario in overworked clinics with poor facilities. Senior staff then explained that, under clinic policy, anyone who reported a needlestick injury had to undergo HIV testing to measure the danger of sero-conversion through exposure to infected needles. Nurses did not report needlestick injuries because they did not want to be tested. Silence can continue to reign even when people with HIV are ill and dying. Because AIDS is just the name for a cluster of diseases that immunodeficient people develop, patients and their carers can choose to view the illness as just tuberculosis, or diarrhoea, or pneumonia. An example from southern Africa is telling. In one study of home-based care schemes, fewer than 1 in 10 people who were caring for an HIV-infected patient at home acknowledged that their relative was suffering from AIDS. Patients themselves were only slightly more likely to acknowledge their status. "For too long we have closed our eyes as a nation, hoping the truth was not so real," South African Deputy President Thabo Mbeki told South Africans in October. "At times we did not know that we were burying people who had died from AIDS. At other times we knew, but chose to remain silent." With this major speech, South Africa's leadership joined those who have spoken out loudly and clearly about AIDS, have sought to demystify it, and have encouraged discussion about safe sex everywhere from the classroom to the boardroom. It is in such countries-of which Uganda is probably the best known example in the developing world-that most progress has been made not just in putting a brake on new infections but in ensuring the wellbeing of those people who are already living with the virus. Act before it is too late In Madagascar, an island of 16 million people, HIV is just beginning to raise its head. Surveillance among pregnant women shows exceptionally low levels of infection-perhaps 1 in 5000 (as compared with 1 in 4 in some countries in sub-Saharan Africa, off whose south-eastern coast Madagascar lies). Even among sex workers and patients with other sexually transmitted infections, HIV rates are negligible. An island nation with no need for HIV prevention programmes? Far from it. Madagascar may have been protected by its relative isolation from an early onslaught of HIV, but the high levels of risk in the population are sending alarm bells ringing. The time to act is now. According to behavioural surveys, sex starts young (at around 15 for the majority of women) and premarital pregnancy is common. Some 14% of pregnant women in a recent survey reported casual partners, and over 9 out of 10 never used condoms in those encounters. Most patients at STD clinics were married, but 16% reported regular extramarital partners and another 14% reported casual partners. Fewer than 10% consistently use condoms in any of these relationships. STD microbes are already finding plenty of scope for spread. Some 10% of pregnant woman tested positive for syphilis in the most recent round of surveillance-an unusually high rate. Around 15% of STD clinic patients had syphilis. Among sex workers syphilis prevalence ranged up to 28%-not surprising, considering that 35% of sex workers say they never use condoms with any type of clients, and nearly two-thirds never use them with regular partners. Only 14% report using condoms with all of their sex work clients. The potential scope for both STD and HIV spread is alarming. The government and nongovernmental partners are responding actively. For example, special reproductive health services for 10 to 24-year-olds have been set up in youth centres around the country. The aim is to use these special youth-friendly clinics to spread the word about HIV and to instil a norm of safe behaviour quickly, before the virus can take hold. For more information, please contact Anne Winter, UNAIDS, Geneva, mobile (+41 79) 213.4312, Richard Delate, UNAIDS, Johannesburg, (+27 12) 338 5294, mobile (+27 82) 902 0256, Lisa Jacobs, UNAIDS, Geneva, (+41 22) 791.3387 or Karen O'Malley, UNAIDS, New York, (+1 212) 899.5575. You may also visit the UNAIDS Home Page on the Internet for more information about the programme (http://www.unaids.org). 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