______________________________________ Stratfor's FREE Kosovo Crisis Center - http://www.stratfor.com/kosovo/crisis/ The most comprehensive coverage of the Kosovo Crisis anywhere on the Internet ______________________________________ STRATFOR's Global Intelligence Update March 30, 1999 Greco-Turkish Dispute Threatens to Deepen Fissures in NATO Summary: Turkey has alleged that Greek air defense radar systems locked on to a Turkish fighter aircraft earlier this month, nearly causing an international incident. Turkey warned Greece that a repeat of the incident would be answered with a Turkish attack. While relations between Turkey and Greece have been contentious for some time, the timing of this particular incident is cause for concern, given the current situation in the Balkans. Analysis: On March 29, the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet reported an incident that took place earlier this month between Greece and Turkey. Turkey claimed that at 0030 GMT on March 19 one of its F-16 fighter aircraft flying in international airspace was illuminated by Greek radar. Turkey stated that the radar signal originated from a missile site on the island of Limnos. According to the report in Hurriyet, when the pilot realized the radar was tracking him he radioed for instructions and was told to return to base. Turkey later sent Greece a warning stating that pilots would be instructed to destroy missile sites in the future if they were tracked by air defense radar. The report in Hurriyet claimed that the two countries had nearly gone to war over the incident. Relations between Turkey and Greece have been simmering for some time now, having been on the verge of armed conflict more than once in the past few years over the location of their border in the Aegean Sea. What makes this latest incident noteworthy is the timing of the incident in relation to the crisis unfolding in the Balkans. While both nations are members of NATO, Turkey has committed aircraft to the bombing campaign in support of co- religionists in Kosovo, whereas Greece recently voiced its opposition to NATO's military action. On March 26, Greek government spokesman Yanis Nicolau said, "It is time to return to political discussions to find a political solution for Kosovo and to end the bombings." He added that his country indicated its position to NATO clearly and that "it was not alone in calling for [a] halt to the air raids." Another notable opponent to military action against Serbia is Russia, with whom Greece has become quite friendly. Russia has provided training for Greek pilots, and is selling Greece S-300 surface-to-air (SAM) missiles for deployment on behalf of Greek- dominated Cyprus. The planned sale of the S-300 missiles to Cyprus nearly sparked a war between Greece and Turkey, as Ankara vowed to destroy them before they could be deployed. Additionally, earlier this year the U.S. accused Greece of having supplied the Russians with NATO aircraft jamming codes. These codes would enable Russia to jam weapons guidance systems on NATO aircraft. While this allegation has yet to be proven, the mere fact that NATO secrets may have been compromised certainly casts doubt on Greek commitment to the West. This latest incident between Turkey and Greece exposes what is perhaps the deepest fracture within NATO. Although NATO officials continue to affirm that the organization is of one mind concerning military action in the Balkans, Stratfor believes this may not be the case. Greece is not comfortable with a war on behalf of a Moslem population to its north -- a potential ally of the Turks. Turkey, in turn, has apparently seized on Greek opposition to NATO action over Kosovo to push for U.S., European, and NATO support for Turkey's side of the feud. Publicizing a Greek action that threatened the stability of NATO just as the organization was preparing for action against Yugoslavia may be a Turkish attempt to win points with the West, but it also reminds Russia of the powerful lever it has against NATO. Russia has used that lever before through the Cyprus missile sale, and given the current state of affairs in Kosovo, Russia and the Serbs will no doubt want to pry at this fracture in NATO's armor some more. ___________________________________________________ To receive free daily Global Intelligence Updates, sign up on the web at: http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/subscribe.asp or send your name, organization, position, mailing address, phone number, and e-mail address to [EMAIL PROTECTED] ___________________________________________________ STRATFOR, Inc. 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/ Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
