-Caveat Lector- We'll lose more than dollars in winning war Jay Bookman, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution 02/13/2003
American victory against Iraq would be assured. Much as we may try to talk Saddam Hussein up as a major military threat, the truth is he can't even fly a jet over his own airspace without getting it shot to pieces. However, the cost of that American victory would be immense. Already, the mere prospect of war may have permanently split NATO, long our core alliance, and driven France, Germany and Russia to form what amounts to an anti-U.S. "coalition of the unwilling." War itself will cost us much more. A revealing glimpse into the burdens and responsibilities we will incur by invading Iraq is available in a recent report co-sponsored by the James A. Baker III Institute for Foreign Policy and the Council on Foreign Relations. "There should be no illusions that the reconstruction of Iraq will be anything but difficult, confusing and dangerous for everyone involved," concludes the report, which then goes on to detail just how complex things will get. According to that report: � "A U.S.-led attack on Iraq threatens to be a traumatic event throughout the Muslim world. In the Arab world especially, there is a serious risk that war in Iraq will stir up further trouble for the United States, including terrorist attacks against the United States and its partners." � "Refugee flows toward Turkey and especially Iran of up to 1.5 million people are likely." � "Strong U.S. backing for an emergency government will be needed to fill the vacuum left by Saddam. Without an initial and broad-based commitment to law and order, the logic of score-settling and revenge-taking will reduce Iraq to chaos." � "If a large-scale, prolonged U.S. occupation of Iraq becomes necessary, or if the United States appears to be taking over Iraq's oil sector, guerrilla attacks against U.S. military personnel guarding oil installations are likely." � "Leaving aside immediate humanitarian needs, experts estimate that reconstruction will cost between $25 billion and $100 billion. . . . rebuilding Iraq's electrical power infrastructure could cost $20 billion to restore its pre-1990 capacity." � "There has been a great deal of wishful thinking about Iraqi oil, including a widespread belief that oil revenues will help defray war costs and the expense of rebuilding the Iraqi state and economy. . . . If no facilities were damaged, Iraq's total oil revenues would still only likely average around $10 billion to $12 billion annually." The report is by no means intended as an argument against war. Among its authors was Ken Pollack, who wrote a highly influential book called "The Threatening Storm: The Case For Invading Iraq." The report treats the debate over war as settled, an approach that makes its findings all the more sobering. In addition, the report assumes a couple of things that may not prove valid. First, it accepts as highly unlikely that Iraqi officials will blow up hundreds of oil wells as they retreat, as they did in Kuwait in the Gulf War. To me, that optimism seems, well, optimistic. If the panel's assumption proves incorrect, the report concedes that it "could leave Iraq's population of 23 million largely dependent on international donor aid and could portend a humanitarian crisis of unprecedented proportions." The report, which was published Jan. 16, also assumes that the United States will be able to draw broad international support and U.N. assistance to support its effort in Iraq. Today, a month later, that level of support seems unlikely. If that support is not forthcoming, the report warns that "future difficulties are bound to quickly overshadow any initial military success. Put simply, the United States may lose the peace, even if it wins the war." That warning suggests the story told by the ancient historian Plutarch about a Greek king named Pyrrhus who was fighting the Romans in 279 B.C. Congratulated after a costly victory, Pyrrhus replied, "One more victory like this will be the end of me." http://www.accessatlanta.com/ajc/opinion/bookman/ <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/";>www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance�not soap-boxing�please! 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