-Caveat Lector-

Supporters desert Prime Minister as Spaniards reject conflict

Giles Tremlett in Madrid
Tuesday February 18, 2003
The Guardian

Spain's prime minister, Jose Maria Aznar, was coming to terms yesterday
with the fact that his unswerving support for George Bush on Iraq had
inflicted heavy political damage that could cost his conservative People's
party its hold on power.
Ministers admitted that the government's position was "causing significant
electoral damage" and Mr Aznar's wife, Ana Botella, was quoted as saying
his party was going through "one of the worst moments in its history".

Between 2 million and 3 million people took to the streets of Spanish
cities to protest at the weekend in what was said to the biggest overall
turnout in the world. As many as one in 15 Spaniards marched.

More significantly for Mr Aznar, opinion polls have shown that, for the
first time since securing a clear victory in elections three years ago, the
Socialists have overtaken the People's party in voting intentions.

Mr Aznar also faced embarrassment yesterday when it was revealed that in
1997 he had offered to pay Baghdad in "aid" if it gave oil contracts to the
Spanish-owned Repsol company. The government was ready to make a "donation"
if Repsol was given a concession in the Nasiriya field, despite the fact
that the UN had just issued a series of resolutions condemning Iraq's
continued blocking of inspections, according to El Mundo newspaper, which
quoted official documents.

The amount of money involved was described as "a sum to be set later". But
Repsol never managed to close the deal.

More than any other political leader in Europe, with the exception of Tony
Blair, Mr Aznar is flying in the face of popular opinion. An El Pais
newspaper poll two weeks ago showed 69% of Spaniards were against even a
UN-backed war. Nearly two-thirds of the People's party's own voters opposed
war.

The Socialist opposition has called him to vote against war at Nato and the
UN security council.

Mr Aznar's personal conviction that Saddam Hussein still possesses chemical
or biological weapons appears to remain unshaken. This, government
officials said, was partly due to the private conversations he has had with
Mr Bush and top US officials, who see him as one of their most important
diplomatic allies.

He has also argued that for a government that has made domestic terrorism
its No 1 priority, the alleged relationship between President Saddam and
international terrorism cannot be ignored.

Few observers expect him to change his opinion. Far from backing down, Mr
Aznar explained his position in leaflets inserted into daily newspapers at
the weekend. Illustrated with pictures of the blazing twin towers, they
said only that the government considered a new UN resolution as "possible
and desirable", rather than a prerequisite to invasion.

The extent of Mr Aznar's commitment to a possible war against Iraq was
underlined yesterday with the publication of photographs showing the
construction of accommodation for 600 new military personnel at a US base
in southern Spain.

Protesters in Madrid taunted the prime minister on Saturday with chants of
"Mr Aznar, send your own sons". Yet, despite his stance as a leading
European hawk, Spain is unlikely to play a significant military role in a
war.

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