-Caveat Lector-
Begin forwarded message:
> China intolerant of US interference
>
> November 16 2005 at 03:24AM
> http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?
> set_id=1&click_id=126&art_id=qw113211558132
> 4B212
>
> South Korea - China said on Wednesday that it would not tolerate any
> interference over Taiwan, after United States (US) President George
> Bush praised the
> island's democracy and urged Beijing to open dialogue with Taipei.
>
> "Taiwan is a part of China, an inseparable part of China, and China
> does not
> brook any interference in its internal affairs," Foreign Minister
> Li Zhaoxing
> said on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific summit in South Korea.
>
> Li was reacting to comments Bush is to make later on Wednesday
> during a visit
> to Japan. The Chinese foreign minister later held talks with US
> Secretary of
> State Condoleezza Rice.
>
> Bush held up Taiwan - which Beijing considers a renegade province -
> as a
> society that had successfully "moved from repression to democracy"
> and said its
> differences with the mainland must be resolved peacefully through
> dialogue.
>
> "Modern Taiwan is free and democratic and prosperous. By embracing
> freedom at
> all levels, Taiwan has delivered prosperity to its people and
> created a free
> and democratic Chinese society," he said in remarks prepared for
> delivery.
>
> But he stressed that Washington's "One China" policy was unchanged and
> emphasised "there should be no unilateral attempts to change the
> status quo by
> either side."
>
> Chinese President Hu Jintao and Bush will both attend a weekend
> leaders'
> summit of the Asia Pacific Economic Corporation (APEC) forum in the
> South Korean
> port of Busan.
>
> Taiwanese presidents have been barred from joining Apec summits
> because of
> objections from China, which views the island as part of its
> territory to be
> reunified, by force if necessary. - Sapa-AFP
>
> ================
>
> Get Real About China
>
>
> By Frank J Gaffney Jr.
> Washington Times | November 17, 2005
> This week, President Bush visits the People's Republic of China. As
> with all
> such high-level diplomatic missions, he will doubtless be tempted to
> accentuate the few, putatively positive aspects of the Sino-
> American relationship, and
> gloss over the increasing number of negative ones.
> If that happens, history may record this as a moment when the
> failure to
> speak truth to the Chinese communists condemned the two nations to
> conflict
> later.
> That grim prospect might just be avoided if Mr. Bush reads in
> the course
> of his Far Eastern visit the report issued last week by the
> congressionally
> mandated, blue-ribbon U.S.-China Economic and Security Review
> Commission. Its
> bipartisan conclusion is that "over the past year, on balance, the
> trends in the
> U.S.-China relationship have negative implications for our long-
> term economic
> and security interests."
> The commission backs this up with nearly 170 pages of analysis
> based on
> 14 hearings. It represents the only "second opinion" on China both
> informed by
> full access to classified information and available to the American
> people, as
> well as their elected representatives. This panel performs a real
> public
> service and its conclusions deserve careful scrutiny -- by
> President Bush, as well
> as the rest of us.
> Such a review is made all the more necessary insofar as the
> U.S.-China
> Commission notes the United States lacks a "coherent strategic
> framework...
> grounded in a clear-eyed understanding of how the Chinese military
> and political
> leadership leads the country, how decisions are made and how their
> economy
> works... . China is an authoritarian regime and a nonmarket command
> economy still
> controlled by the Communist Party. The central goal of its
> leadership is
> maintaining its own power, at all costs."
> It flows from this basic insight that we must be concerned
> about such
> developments as:
> The persistent assertion by the Chinese leadership to their
> political
> cadre and military officers that America is the "main enemy" and
> that war with
> the United States is "inevitable."
> Official Chinese efforts to secure energy resources from all
> over the
> world to meet its yawning needs (notably for oil, coal and natural
> gas) in a way
> that seems meant to deny such resources to the U.S. and other global
> competitors.
> The PRC's predatory trade practices and intellectual property
> theft that
> continue in violation of past commitments and World Trade Organization
> obligations. In part, the result is a bilateral trade deficit that
> has increased
> "over 140 percent in only four years." The wealth thus garnered by
> China is used
> -- among other things -- to fuel the plundering of America's
> remaining
> high-technology industrial base and the utter liquidation of our
> manufacturing sector.
> Wealth transfers from the United States are underwriting Beijing's
> ominous build-up of its armed forces, as well. The commission says:
> "China is
> engaged in a major military modernization program, the motives of
> which are opaque
> and unexplained. It is building a modern navy and air force,
> upgrading its
> nuclear-armed ICBM force and beginning to operate in a power-
> projection mode. It
> has markedly expanded its information warfare operations to a level
> that is
> clearly designed to disrupt American systems."
> The commission has also helpfully warned about the PRC's
> increasingly
> bringing economic dinosaurs -- its biggest "banks" and other state-
> owned
> enterprises -- to the U.S. capital markets. By so doing, it is
> offloading the
> financing of otherwise unsustainable entities onto American
> investors. As a result,
> the latter are unwittingly helping underwrite the unsavory
> activities of such
> enterprises -- including: China's proliferation of weapons of mass
> destruction,
> arms build-up, environmental depredation, technology theft
> (including the
> Navy's Aegis fleet air defense system and nuclear warhead designs),
> espionage and
> slave-labor manufacturing operations, etc.
> Finally, China is engaged in activities that pose a more immediate
> danger. Two of its nationals were recently arrested trying to sell
> Chinese-made QW-2
> man-portable surface-to-air missiles in this country. Had they done
> so, the
> result could have given rise to a potentially grave threat to American
> airliners. And Chinese micro-satellites are being readied to attack
> our space assets
> as another, potentially devastating manifestation of Beijing's
> pursuit of what
> the Pentagon calls "asymmetric warfare" capabilities against the
> United
> States.
> Few things would be more dangerous than to continue giving
> Communist China a
> pass on its increasingly brazen pursuit of its strategic goal of
> displacing
> this country as the world's leading economic power and defeating us
> militarily,
> if necessary.
> Mr. Bush must use his visit to China to disabuse its leaders of
> the
> notion we are indifferent to that agenda or unwilling to resist it.
> The valuable
> U.S.-China Commission has laid out in its 57 recommendations things
> we should be
> doing.
> The president should make clear we are fully prepared to go
> farther, if
> need be, by helping the Chinese people liberate themselves from a
> regime that
> oppresses them and increasingly threatens us.
>
>
>
> Frank J. Gaffney, Jr. is the founder, president, and CEO of The
> Center for
> Security Policy. During the Reagan administration, Gaffney was the
> Assistant
> Secretary of Defense for International Security, the Deputy
> Assistant Secretary
> of Defense for Nuclear Forces and Arms Control Policy, and a
> Professional Staff
> Member on the Senate Armed Services Committee, chaired by Senator
> John Tower
> (R-Texas). He is a columnist for The Washington Times, Jewish World
> Review,
> and Townhall.com and has also contributed to The Wall Street
> Journal, USA Today,
> The New Republic, The Washington Post, The New York Times, The
> Christian
> Science Monitor, The Los Angeles Times, and Newsday.
>
> ================
>
> The China syndrome
> By Ross Terrill | November 16, 2005
> Boston Globe
> http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/
> 2005/11/16/the_china_syndrome?mode=PF
> AS PRESIDENT Bush readies his chopsticks to dine with President Hu
> Jintao
> tomorrow, he might ponder whether the rise of China means the
> eclipse of the
> United States.
> Some Americans see China pushing us aside. Some even grasp at
> China's rise as
> a stick to beat the Bush administration. Any rise with the
> potential to take
> President Bush down a peg or two is maximized by those for whom
> Bush's America
> would not be their first choice as the world's sole superpower.
> Take a deep
> breath. The US economy is seven times the size of China's and the
> Japanese
> economy is three times China's. Not least, China is a Leninist
> regime -- the kind
> that mostly went up in a puff of smoke 15 years ago.
> None of this is to deny that China's economy is expanding rapidly,
> with
> annual GDP growth of 8 to 9 percent, according to official figures.
> The global
> consequences of this are clear, as China seeks new markets and
> sucks in increased
> imports. At a broader level, Beijing expands its military, spurs
> nationalist
> spirit, and enjoys growing diplomatic clout well beyond Asia.
> China's foreign policy seeks to maximize stability at home (for
> example, by
> keeping the status quo across Xinjiang's borders with Central Asia)
> and sustain
> China's impressive economic growth (for example, by safeguarding
> the huge US
> market). A third goal is to maintain peace in China's complicated
> geographic
> situation with no less than 14 abutting neighbors. So far so good.
> This is a
> prudent foreign policy.
> But China also has two dubious goals. One is to replace the United
> States as
> the chief source of influence in East Asia. Hence Chinese efforts
> to drive a
> wedge between Japan and the United States and Chinese whispers in
> Australian
> ears that Canberra would be better off looking only to Asia and not
> across the
> Pacific. The other is to ''regain" territories that Beijing feels
> fall within
> its sovereignty. These include not only Taiwan but a large number
> of islands
> east and south of China and, eventually, portions of the Russian
> Far East to
> which Beijing has laid territorial claims in the past.
> Whether Beijing can achieve these goals depends on how long its rigid
> political system can survive, and on the reaction of other powers
> to China's
> ambitions. A middle-class push for property rights, rural
> discontent, increased use of
> the Internet, huge numbers of unemployed, and a suddenly aging
> population
> bringing financial and social strains all dramatize the
> contradictions inherent
> in ''market Leninism." Traveling one road in economics and another
> in politics
> does not make for a settled destination.
> China's economy may continue to grow at its present rate. Or China
> may retain
> its Leninist party state. But it can hardly do both. Either the
> economic or
> the political logic will soon gain the upper hand.
> The successful rise of a new No. 1 entails not only ambition on the
> part of
> that rising power and capacity to fulfill the functions of No. 1,
> but also --
> crucially -- acquiescence by other affected powers.
> This last condition is extremely unlikely to be fulfilled. The
> United States
> will not allow an authoritarian China to become the new world
> leader and has
> allies to call on. Japan's new assertiveness and India's weight are
> major
> factors. And should Beijing seek to pursue a Chinese version of the
> Monroe Doctrine
> in Asia, Washington could also count on Australia, Indonesia, and
> Vietnam for
> balancing weight.
> American interests in Asia lie, as they have for the past century,
> in keeping
> China and Japan in balance, and not allowing either one to forge
> ahead of the
> other. Equally, a Japan that saw China eclipse the United States,
> its major
> ally whose primacy in East Asia explains six decades of Japanese
> restraint,
> would surely challenge China.
> US-China policy should blend full engagement with preserving an
> equilibrium
> in East Asia that discourages Beijing from expansionism. No
> contradiction
> exists between these twin stances. There are two Chinas, after all.
> A command
> economy that sags and a free economy that soars. A Communist Party
> that scratches
> for a raison d'etre and 1.3 billion individuals with private
> agendas. Being
> wary of authoritarian China yet engaging with emerging China is a
> reasonable
> dualism.
> The expansionist claims of Beijing are unique among today's powers.
> But the
> Chinese regime is a rational dictatorship that has, for the past
> quarter
> century, been patient in fulfilling its goals. It surely realizes
> that others -- the
> United States, Japan, Russia, and India -- have a variety of
> reasons for
> denying China the opportunity to be a 21st century Middle Kingdom.
> If Beijing
> continues to be faced with a countervailing equilibrium that keeps
> the peace in
> East Asia, it will probably act prudently.
> In Beijing, Shanghai, Xian, and Chongqing, on two recent visits, I
> found less
> talk of China being near to eclipsing the United States than I do
> on US
> campuses and in the US media. Overall, China may not be the new
> colossus it appears
> to its self-made foes or to distant lotus-eaters. A Leninist-ruled
> Chinese
> superpower eclipsing the United States is not on the horizon.
> Ross Terrill is an associate in research at Harvard University's
> Asia Center
> and author of, most recently, ''The New Chinese Empire."
>
> -------------------------------1132143607
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> <TD class=3Dstoryviewheadline><FONT size=3D5> China
> intolerant of=20=
> US interference</FONT></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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> <TD class=3Dcaption style=3D"WIDTH: 360px">
> <DIV><BR><SPAN style=3D"COLOR: #747474"> November 16
> 2005 at 03=
> :24AM </SPAN></DIV>
> <DIV><SPAN style=3D"COLOR: #747474"><A href=3D"http:// > www.int.iol.co.za/inde= > x.php? > set_id=3D1&click_id=3D126&art_id=3Dqw1132115581324B212">http:/
> =
> /www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?
> set_id=3D1&click_id=3D126&art_id=3Dqw11=
> 32115581324B212</A></SPAN></DIV></TD></TR>
> <TR>
> <TD style=3D"HEIGHT: 1px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cccccc" colSpan=3D2></ > TD></TR><=
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> <TABLE cellSpacing=3D0 cellPadding=3D23 border=3D0>
> <TBODY>
> <TR>
> <TD class=3Dsvarticletext><FONT size=3D+1></FONT>
> <P>South Korea - China said on Wednesday that it would not tolerate
> any inte=
> rference over Taiwan, after United States (US) President George
> Bush praised=
> the island's democracy and urged Beijing to open dialogue with
> Taipei.<BR><= > BR>"Taiwan is a part of China, an inseparable part of China, and
> <STRONG>Chi=
> na does not brook any interference in its internal affairs</ >
STRONG>," Foreig=
> n Minister Li Zhaoxing said on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific
> summit in S=
> outh Korea.<BR><BR>Li was reacting to comments Bush is to make
> later on Wedn=
> esday during a visit to Japan. The Chinese foreign minister later
> held talks=
> with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.<BR> =20
> <DIV align=3Dcenter>
> <DIV id=3DAds_Count245005 style=3D"LEFT: -1000px; POSITION: > absolute; TOP: -= > 1000px"><IMG height=3D1 src=3D"http://red.as-eu.falkag.net/dat/bgf/ > trpix.gif= > ? >
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112687&uid=3D1&dmn=3D.proxy.aol.com&scx=3D1024&scy=3D7 > 68&= > ;scc=3D32&jav=3D1&sta=3D,,, > 1,,,,,,,0,9,0,20544,20332,14659,15478,807= >
&iid=3D245005&bid=3D776270" width=3D1></DIV></DIV>
> <DIV align=3Dleft>Bush held up Taiwan - which Beijing considers a
> renegade p=
> rovince - as a society that had successfully "moved from repression
> to democ=
> racy" and said its differences with the mainland must be resolved
> peacefully=
> through dialogue.<BR><BR>"Modern Taiwan is free and democratic and
> prospero=
> us. By embracing freedom at all levels, Taiwan has delivered
> prosperity to i=
> ts people and created a free and democratic Chinese society," he
> said in rem=
> arks prepared for delivery.<BR><BR>But <STRONG>he stressed that
> Washington's=
> "One China" policy was unchanged and emphasised <EM>"there should
> be no uni=
> lateral attempts to change the status quo </EM>by either
> side."<BR></STRONG>=
> <BR>Chinese President Hu Jintao and Bush will both attend a weekend
> leaders'=
> summit of the Asia Pacific Economic Corporation (APEC) forum in
> the South K=
> orean port of Busan.<BR><BR>Taiwanese presidents have been barred
> from joini=
> ng Apec summits because of objections from China, which
> <STRONG>views the is=
> land as part of its territory to be reunified, <EM>by force if
> necessary</EM= >
>> </STRONG>. - Sapa-AFP </DIV>
>>
> <DIV align=3Dleft> </DIV>
> <DIV align=3Dleft><FONT >
size=3D2>=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
> =3D=3D</FONT></DIV>
> <DIV align=3Dleft><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV><FONT size=3D2>
> <DIV align=3Dleft>
> <TABLE cellSpacing=3D0 cellPadding=3D0 width=3D"100%" border=3D0>
> <TBODY>
> <TR>
> <TD>
> <DIV><SPAN class=3Dbackhead><STRONG><FONT color=3D#631614 >
size=3D5>Get Real=20=
> About China</FONT></STRONG></SPAN></DIV>
> <DIV><SPAN class=3Dbackhead><STRONG><FONT color=3D#631614></FONT></ > STRONG></= >
SPAN> </DIV></TD>
> <TD align=3Dright><SPAN style=3D"CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: right" >
onclick=
> =3D"doOpen('../eBrigade/details.asp?
> FormMode=3Ddisplayteam&ID=3D20205');=
> " align=3D"right"><STRONG><FONT color=3D#631614></FONT></STRONG></ >
SPAN></TD>=
> </TR></TBODY></TABLE></DIV>
> <DIV align=3Dleft><SPAN class=3Dbackcontent><FONT > color=3D#631614>By <A href= > =3D"http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/authors.asp?
> ID=3D609">Frank J Gaffn=
> ey Jr.</A></FONT><BR></SPAN><SPAN >
class=3Dbackcontent><STRONG>Washington Tim=
> es | November 17, 2005</STRONG></SPAN> </DIV>
> <P align=3Dleft></P><SPAN class=3Dbackcontent id=3DbackCon >
style=3D"FONT-SIZ=
> E: 10pt">
> <P align=3Dleft><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 11pt" face=3D"Times New > Roman" siz= > e=3D3>This week, President Bush visits the People's Republic of
> China. As wi=
> th all such high-level diplomatic missions, he will doubtless be
> tempted to=20=
> accentuate the few, putatively positive aspects of the Sino-
> American relatio=
> nship, and gloss over the increasing number of negative ones.
> <BR> &nbs=
> p; If that happens, history may record this as a moment
> when the=20=
> failure to speak truth to the Chinese communists condemned the two
> nations t=
> o conflict later. <BR> That grim prospect
> might just=20=
> be avoided if Mr. Bush reads in the course of his Far Eastern visit
> the repo=
> rt issued last week by the congressionally mandated, blue-ribbon
> U.S.-China=20=
> Economic and Security Review Commission. Its bipartisan conclusion
> is that "=
> over the past year, on balance,<STRONG> the trends in the U.S.-
> China relatio=
> nship have negative implications for our long-term economic and
> security int=
> erests</STRONG>." <BR> The commission backs
> this up w=
> ith nearly 170 pages of analysis based on 14 hearings. It
> represents the onl=
> y "second opinion" on China both informed by full access to
> classified infor=
> mation and available to the American people, as well as their
> elected repres=
> entatives. This panel performs a real public service and its
> conclusions des=
> erve careful scrutiny -- by President Bush, as well as the rest of
> us. <BR>&=
> nbsp; Such a review is made all the more necessary
> insofar=20=
> as the U.S.-China Commission notes the United States lacks a
> "coherent strat=
> egic framework... grounded in a clear-eyed understanding of how the
> Chinese=20=
> military and political leadership leads the country, how decisions
> are made=20=
> and how their economy works... . China is an authoritarian regime
> and a nonm=
> arket command economy still controlled by the Communist Party. The
> central g=
> oal of its leadership is maintaining its own power, at all costs."
> <BR> =
> ; It flows from this basic insight that we must be
> concerne=
> d about such developments as:
> <BR> <STRONG> The persis=
> tent assertion by the Chinese leadership to their political cadre
> and milita=
> ry officers that America is the "main enemy" and that war with the
> United St=
> ates is "inevitable."</STRONG> <BR> Official
> Chinese=20=
> efforts to secure energy resources from all over the world to meet
> its yawni=
> ng needs (notably for oil, coal and natural gas) <EM><STRONG>in a
> way that s=
> eems meant to deny such resources to the U.S.</STRONG></EM> and
> other global=
> competitors. <BR> The PRC's predatory trade
> practice=
> s and intellectual property theft that continue in violation of
> past commitm=
> ents and World Trade Organization obligations. In part, the result
> is <STRON= > G>a bilateral trade deficit that has increased "over 140 percent in
> only fou=
> r years."</STRONG> The wealth thus garnered by China is used --
> among other=20=
> things -- to fuel the plundering of America's remaining high-
> technology indu=
> strial base and the utter liquidation of our manufacturing sector.
> <BR> =
> ; <STRONG>Wealth transfers from the United States
> are under=
> writing Beijing's ominous build-up of its armed forces</STRONG>, as
> well. Th=
> e commission says: "<STRONG>China is engaged in a major military
> modernizati=
> on program, the motives of which are opaque and unexplained. It is
> building=20=
> a modern navy and air force, upgrading its nuclear-armed ICBM force
> and begi=
> nning to operate in a power-projection mode. It has markedly
> expanded its in=
> formation warfare operations to a level that is clearly designed to
> disrupt=20=
> American systems."</STRONG> <BR> The
> commission has a=
> lso helpfully warned about the PRC's increasingly bringing economic
> dinosaur=
> s -- its biggest "banks" and other state-owned enterprises -- to
> the U.S. ca=
> pital markets. By so doing, it is offloading <STRONG><EM>the
> financing of ot=
> herwise unsustainable entities onto American investors. As a
> result, the lat=
> ter are unwittingly helping underwrite the unsavory activities of
> such enter=
> prises -- including: China's proliferation of weapons of mass
> destruction, a=
> rms build-up, environmental depredation, technology theft
> (including the Nav=
> y's Aegis fleet air defense system and nuclear warhead designs),
> espionage a=
> nd slave-labor manufacturing operations, etc. <BR></EM></ >
STRONG> =
> Finally, China is engaged in activities that pose a
> more immedia=
> te danger. Two of its nationals were recently arrested trying to
> sell Chines=
> e-made QW-2 man-portable surface-to-air missiles in this country.
> Had they d=
> one so, the result could have given rise to a potentially grave
> threat to Am=
> erican airliners. And Chinese micro-satellites are being readied to
> attack o=
> ur space assets as another, potentially devastating manifestation
> of Beijing=
> 's pursuit of what the Pentagon calls "asymmetric warfare"
> capabilities agai=
> nst the United States. </FONT></P>
> <P align=3Dleft><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 11pt" face=3D"Times New > Roman" siz= > e=3D3> Few things would be more dangerous than to continue
> giving Commu=
> nist China a pass on its increasingly brazen pursuit of its
> strategic goal o=
> f displacing this country as the world's leading economic power and
> defeatin=
> g us militarily, if necessary. <BR> Mr. Bush
> must use=
> his visit to China to disabuse its leaders of the notion we are
> indifferent=
> to that agenda or unwilling to resist it. The valuable U.S.-China
> Commissio=
> n has laid out in its 57 recommendations things we should be doing.
> <BR>&nbs=
> p; The president should make clear we are fully
> prepared to=
> go farther, if need be, by helping the Chinese people liberate
> themselves f=
> rom a regime that oppresses them and increasingly threatens us.
> <BR></FONT><= > BR></P>
> <DIV align=3Dleft></SPAN><SPAN class=3Dbackcontent></SPAN> </DIV>
> <DIV align=3Dleft><SPAN class=3Dbackcontent>Frank J. Gaffney, Jr.
> is the fou=
> nder, president, and CEO of The Center for Security Policy. During
> the Reaga=
> n administration, Gaffney was the Assistant Secretary of Defense
> for Interna=
> tional Security, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for
> Nuclear Force=
> s and Arms Control Policy, and a Professional Staff Member on the
> Senate Arm=
> ed Services Committee, chaired by Senator John Tower (R-Texas). He
> is a colu=
> mnist for <I>The Washington Times, Jewish World Review</I>, and
> <I>Townhall.=
> com</I> and has also contributed to <I>The Wall Street Journal, USA
> Today, T=
> he New Republic, The Washington Post, The New York Times, The
> Christian Scie=
> nce Monitor, The Los Angeles Times</I>, and <I>Newsday</I>.</SPAN></ >
FONT></D= > IV>
> <DIV align=3Dleft><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
> <DIV align=3Dleft><FONT >
size=3D2>=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
> =3D=3D</FONT></DIV>
> <DIV align=3Dleft><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
> <DIV align=3Dleft>
> <H1 class=3DmainHead>The China syndrome</H1>
> <P class=3Dbyline>By Ross Terrill | <SPAN >
style=3D"WHITE-SPACE:=20=
> nowrap">November 16, 2005</SPAN></P>
> <P class=3Dbyline><SPAN style=3D"WHITE-SPACE: nowrap">Boston Globe</ >
SPAN></P= >
>>
>>
> <P class=3Dbyline><SPAN style=3D"WHITE-SPACE: nowrap"><FONT >
color=3D#0000ff=20=
> size=3D2><A href=3D"http://www.boston.com/news/globe/ > editorial_opinion/oped/= > articles/">http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/
> articles/=
> </A></FONT></SPAN></P>
> <P class=3Dbyline><SPAN style=3D"WHITE-SPACE: nowrap"><FONT >
color=3D#804040=20=
> size=3D2><U>2005/11/16/the_china_syndrome?mode=3DPF</U></FONT></ >
SPAN></P>
> <P>AS PRESIDENT Bush readies his chopsticks to dine with President
> Hu Jintao=
> tomorrow, he might ponder whether the rise of China means the
> eclipse of th=
> e United States.</P>
> <P>Some Americans see China pushing us aside. Some even grasp at
> China's ris=
> e as a stick to beat the Bush administration. Any rise with the
> potential to=
> take President Bush down a peg or two is maximized by those for
> whom Bush's=
> America would not be their first choice as the world's sole
> superpower. Tak=
> e a deep breath. The US economy is seven times the size of China's
> and the J=
> apanese economy is three times China's. Not least, China is a
> Leninist regim=
> e -- the kind that mostly went up in a puff of smoke 15 years ago.</P>
> <P>None of this is to deny that China's economy is expanding
> rapidly, with a=
> nnual GDP growth of 8 to 9 percent, according to official figures.
> The globa=
> l consequences of this are clear, as China seeks new markets and
> sucks in in=
> creased imports. At a broader level, Beijing expands its military,
> spurs nat=
> ionalist spirit, and enjoys growing diplomatic clout well beyond
> Asia.</P>
> <P>China's foreign policy seeks to maximize stability at home (for
> example,=20=
> by keeping the status quo across Xinjiang's borders with Central
> Asia) and s=
> ustain China's impressive economic growth (for example, by
> safeguarding the=20=
> huge US market). A third goal is to maintain peace in China's
> complicated ge=
> ographic situation with no less than 14 abutting neighbors. So far
> so good.=20=
> This is a prudent foreign policy.</P>
> <P>But China also has two dubious goals. One is to replace the
> United States=
> as the chief source of influence in East Asia. Hence Chinese
> efforts to dri=
> ve a wedge between Japan and the United States and Chinese whispers
> in Austr=
> alian ears that Canberra would be better off looking only to Asia
> and not ac=
> ross the Pacific. The other is to ''regain" territories that
> Beijing feels f=
> all within its sovereignty. These include not only Taiwan but a
> large number=
> of islands east and south of China and, eventually, portions of
> the Russian=
> Far East to which Beijing has laid territorial claims in the
> past.</P>
> <P>Whether Beijing can achieve these goals depends on how long its
> rigid pol=
> itical system can survive, and on the reaction of other powers to
> China's am=
> bitions. A middle-class push for property rights, rural discontent,
> increase=
> d use of the Internet, huge numbers of unemployed, and a suddenly
> aging popu=
> lation bringing financial and social strains all dramatize the
> contradiction=
> s inherent in ''market Leninism." Traveling one road in economics
> and anothe=
> r in politics does not make for a settled destination.</P>
> <P>China's economy may continue to grow at its present rate. Or
> China may re=
> tain its Leninist party state. But it can hardly do both. Either
> the economi=
> c or the political logic will soon gain the upper hand.</P>
> <P>The successful rise of a new No. 1 entails not only ambition on
> the part=20=
> of that rising power and capacity to fulfill the functions of No.
> 1, but als=
> o -- crucially -- acquiescence by other affected powers.</P>
> <P>This last condition is extremely unlikely to be fulfilled. The
> United Sta=
> tes will not allow an authoritarian China to become the new world
> leader and=
> has allies to call on. Japan's new assertiveness and India's
> weight are maj=
> or factors. And should Beijing seek to pursue a Chinese version of
> the Monro=
> e Doctrine in Asia, Washington could also count on Australia,
> Indonesia, and=
> Vietnam for balancing weight.</P>
> <P>American interests in Asia lie, as they have for the past
> century, in kee=
> ping China and Japan in balance, and not allowing either one to
> forge ahead=20=
> of the other. Equally, a Japan that saw China eclipse the United
> States, its=
> major ally whose primacy in East Asia explains six decades of
> Japanese rest=
> raint, would surely challenge China.</P>
> <P>US-China policy should blend full engagement with preserving an
> equilibri=
> um in East Asia that discourages Beijing from expansionism. No
> contradiction=
> exists between these twin stances. There are two Chinas, after
> all. A comma=
> nd economy that sags and a free economy that soars. A Communist
> Party that s=
> cratches for a raison d'etre and 1.3 billion individuals with
> private agenda=
> s. Being wary of authoritarian China yet engaging with emerging
> China is a r=
> easonable dualism.</P>
> <P>The expansionist claims of Beijing are unique among today's
> powers. But t=
> he Chinese regime is a rational dictatorship that has, for the past
> quarter=20=
> century, been patient in fulfilling its goals. It surely realizes
> that other=
> s -- the United States, Japan, Russia, and India -- have a variety
> of reason=
> s for denying China the opportunity to be a 21st century Middle
> Kingdom. If=20=
> Beijing continues to be faced with a countervailing equilibrium
> that keeps t=
> he peace in East Asia, it will probably act prudently.</P>
> <P>In Beijing, Shanghai, Xian, and Chongqing, on two recent visits,
> I found=20=
> less talk of China being near to eclipsing the United States than I
> do on US=
> campuses and in the US media. Overall, China may not be the new
> colossus it=
> appears to its self-made foes or to distant lotus-eaters. A
> Leninist-ruled=20=
> Chinese superpower eclipsing the United States is not on the
> horizon.</P>
> <P><SPAN class=3Dtagline><SPAN class=3Dtagline><EM>Ross Terrill is
> an associ=
> ate in research at Harvard University's Asia Center and author of,
> most rece=
> ntly, ''The New Chinese Empire."</EM></SPAN> </SPAN> <IMG >
height=3D8 al=
> t=3D"" src=3D"http://cache.boston.com/bonzai-fba/File-
> Based_Image_Resource/d=
> ingbat_story_end_icon.gif" width=3D6 border=3D0></P></DIV></TD></ >
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