-Caveat Lector-

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/uk/newsid_343000/343755.stm

BBC Online
Friday, May 14, 1999 Published at 12:42 GMT 13:42 UK


UK

UK's nuclear deterrent 'undermined by leak'

The UK relies on its Trident submarine fleet for its nuclear deterrent

Defence experts are warning that the UK's whole nuclear
deterrent programme could be seriously undermined by
the theft of secrets from a US research centre.

Top secret files on the Trident missile system and
satellite tracking of ballistic missile submarines are
believed to have been obtained by the Chinese from the
Los Alamos laboratories.


Since the withdrawal of the
RAF's free-fall nuclear bomb,
the WE177, Trident is the
only nuclear system still
deployed in the UK.

The leak of such sensitive
information could have a
devastating effect on the
ability of the UK to maintain
and effective nuclear
deterrent, experts warn.

Nick Cook, a spokesman for
Jane's military information group said getting information
on how Trident missiles worked could be the first step in
learning how to counter them.

He said Trident used a system whereby multiple
warheads were released by each missile to hit individual
targets.

He said: "Some are decoys, and if you know which are
decoys you could, theoretically, counter them.

"The use of decoys is integral to the Trident system."

Mr Cook said that the leak of information on advances in
submarine detection systems was of even more
concern.

He said: "A radar system which has been in
development by the UK and the US for the last 20 years
detects submarines by finding the minute wake that even
deep diving subs leave on the surface.


"It is incredibly complicated
technology, not just the radar
system but the computer
technology which sifts out
different kinds of wave
patterns to detect a
submarine's wake.

"The Royal Navy prides itself
on its ability to conceal its
submarines from detection.

"Staying invisible is
everything when it comes to
nuclear deterrent.

"If you can find a submarine, you can destroy it, either
by conventional means or, or if things had escalated to
the point where it might be using its nuclear missiles,
you could drop a nuclear bomb on it."

He said the incident might reawaken the controversy
over the withdrawal of nuclear capability from the RAF.

'Extremely worrying'

Mr Cook said: "When the RAF gave up its nuclear
deterrent to the Navy, there was a certain amount of
bitterness.

"It may be that some people in Whitehall may now be
saying to ministers 'we told you so'.

"They would say that if you rely on one pillar of nuclear
deterrent, and if that is damaged in any way, you are
wholly exposed.

"The nuclear deterrent is so sensitive that even the
suggestion that information has got into the wrong hands
is extremely worrying."

'No threat' to subs

Dr Eric Grove, deputy director of the Centre for Security
Studies at the University of Hull, said that although the
theft of secrets would be an embarrassment, he felt it
was not a disaster for the UK's nuclear strategy.

Dr Grove said: "Even if the Chinese knew how to find a
submarine, the coverage they would need to detect one
with any accuracy, particularly one that was trying to
hide itself, would be enormous.

"To do this effectively would probably take up the entire
Chinese defence programme.

"The problems of implementing it are very considerable
indeed and it certainly doesn't make ballistic missile
submarines obsolete.

"I don't want to be complacent, but it isn't a security
disaster.

"Even once you have found a submarine, you need the
assets to take it on and sink it.

"This would mean having your own fleet of nuclear attack
submarines, which the Chinese have made a start on,
but don't have anything yet that would pose a threat to
British or American submarines."

Dr Grove said the threat to submarines from Chinese
missiles was "virtually non-existent" outside of Chinese
waters, and one of the advantages of the Trident
submarines was that the missiles had a range as far as
5000 miles.

A spokesman for the Ministry of Defence said: "We are
not willing to discuss matters relating to intelligence or
the operational detail of the nuclear deterrent."

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