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Published Sunday, August 1, 1999, in the Miami Herald
U.S. buildup in Colombia?
The possibility of U.S. military intervention in Colombia may not be a
burning issue in the United States, but it's grabbing headlines from
Mexico to Argentina.
In Latin America, the press seems virtually certain that a massive U.S.
military buildup in Colombia is on the way.
You can't blame Latin Americans for being suspicious: On July 23, a U.S.
Army reconnaissance plane with five U.S. soldiers aboard crashed in a
guerrilla-controlled Colombian mountain area, raising new questions about
the U.S. military's mission.
U.S. officials say the Pentagon maintains about 200 military personnel in
Colombia, with duties that include training an elite Colombian battalion to
combat drug trafficking. The battalion will begin operating in mostly
guerrilla-dominated areas later this year.
Meanwhile, the Clinton administration is calling Colombia's drug
trafficking a U.S. national security problem, there is growing alarm over a
massive exodus of Colombians to Florida, and U.S. anti-drug czar Barry
McCaffrey has called for a $1 billion increase in U.S. anti-narcotics aid,
most of it for the Colombian military.
``There is no mystery why Latin Americans are apprehensive,'' says Michael
Shifter, of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington think tank. ``Add the
latest headlines to the recent NATO intervention in the Balkans and the
long history of U.S. intervention in the hemisphere, and their conclusion
is logical.''
During a tour of Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela last week, McCaffrey was
forced to repeat endlessly that Colombia will be no Vietnam. There will be
``zero U.S. intervention in Colombia,'' he stated in Venezuela.
Should U.S. officials be believed? I asked a half-dozen well-placed current
and former U.S. officials why they are so categorical in their denials of a
U.S. military buildup in Colombia. Among their answers:
There is a near consensus in top Clinton administration foreign policy
circles that the civil war in Colombia is rooted in ancient political
conflicts and cannot be won militarily.
``To think that the problem in Colombia could be solved with a military
policy would be deceiving ourselves,'' said Arturo Valenzuela, a senior
White House National Security Council official overseeing Latin American
affairs. ``This is a problem that has been dragging on for 40 years, which
has a lot to do with the progressive weakening of the central government.''
Even if U.S. troops could help Colombia's army win the war militarily, the
risks of a Vietnam-style quagmire would far outweigh the rewards. ``There
are no Cold War pressures in this case: There is no fear that Colombia is
going to be taken over by a hostile superpower,'' says Brian Latell, a
former chief CIA analyst for Latin America, who now teaches at Georgetown
University.
There is no support among the U.S. public for U.S. military involvement in
Colombia's civil war, which has cost 35,000 lives over the past 10 years,
and no one in Washington wants to take the risk of selling the idea.
A U.S. anti-insurgency effort could backfire and help rally support for the
guerrillas. Even if many Colombians would support a U.S. intervention,
there would be a strong nationalistic reaction in other Latin American
countries.
U.S. officials say the current policy -- focusing on military anti-drug aid
-- will ultimately weaken the rebels as well, because drug-trafficking
rings pay the guerrillas up to $500 million a year in protection money.
``If we can do away with the drug traffickers, the guerrillas will not have
the capacity to subsist at their current levels,'' one U.S. official said.
Others add that by strengthening its underequipped army, Colombia's
government will be able to negotiate from a position of greater strength.
What do I think? The United States is highly unlikely to commit combat
troops to Colombia. But some influential hard-liners in Washington are
whispering that if 55 U.S. military advisors helped to defeat a leftist
insurgency in El Salvador in the 1980s, the same could be done in Colombia.
I would not be surprised if the next U.S. president -- especially if it's a
Republican -- follows that road.
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David L. Wilson * 212-674-9499 * <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
If you can't spell it, don't bomb it! -- Anonymous
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