-Caveat Lector- from: http://www.aci.net/kalliste/ <A HREF="http://www.aci.net/kalliste/">The Home Page of J. Orlin Grabbe</A> ----- ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Today's Lesson From Balzac: a Biography by Graham Robb While the Government troops were quelling the riot in Paris, Balzac left for Touraine, hoping that his rebellious mind would settle down in Sache. His mental health had become an object of concern and morbid amusement to other people, and he wanted to give a 'glorious rebuttal' to the gossips who said he was sliding into madness. The rebuttal was to take the form of a novel eventually entitled Louis Lambert: it tells the story of a genius who transcends the normal plane of reality and goes spectacularly insane. It was typical of Balzac to douse a fire with petrol. Ignoring his own precept that to serve up one's life to the public was proof of a weak imagination and worse than prostitution, he poured his own minutely remembered childhood into the novel: the College de Vendome, its quirky assortment of teachers, its monastic regime, its pigeons, its smell, his fellow suffers. The narrator, who identifies himself as the author of La Peau de Chagrin, is supposed to be the best friend of the ill-fated boy genius, Lambert. Balzac must have believed he was dispelling the rumours. In the manuscript, he refers to his own undignified departure from Vendome: "My parents, alarmed at my mental state . . . removed me from the school and sent me to Paris." The allusion to his mysterious breakdown was wisely modified; and yet the novel itself, ending as it does with the orphic utterances of a man in a cataleptic trance--the "Thoughts" of Louis Lambert--was unlikely to be read as the work of an entirely rational being. No great critical acumen was required to see the narrator and the lunatic as two parts of the same personality. Once again, Balzac's writing was working out its own plans in defiance of the author. ===== Russian Follies Islamic Rebels Challenge Russia in Dagestan The Russia empire continues to crack FOUR Russian paratroopers were killed and 13 wounded in a seven-hour clash with Islamic rebels early yesterday in Russia's troubled region of Dagestan. The Kremlin is facing the biggest challenge to its authority over the Caucasus Mountains since the ill-fated Chechnya war. It also fears the trouble could rapidly spread to neighbouring republics, threatening the unity of the Russian federation. Reinforcements, including elite riot troop units and engineering brigades backed by helicopter gunships, are continuing to pour into Dagestan, prompting Russian newspapers to suggest that the federal forces are gearing up for protracted, large-scale combat. Russian military commanders have said they need up to two weeks to drive out the Islamic rebels from the predominantly Muslim region on the Caspian Sea, but military and political observers point to the Russians' failure to re-establish control over Chechnya after a two-year war that ended in abject failure in 1996. Vladimir Putin, nominated by President Yeltsin as Russia's new Prime Minister, has said that the campaign could be carried into Chechnya, from where the rebels are believed to have penetrated into Dagestan eight days ago. It was the strongest indication yet that the uprising in Dagestan could lead to a wider war, including a fresh invasion of Chechnya. Many of the rebels belong to the fundamentalist Wahhabi sect and are seeking an independent Islamic republic in the mainly Muslim regions of the Caucasus Mountains. Russia is planning a large-scale operation in Dagestan today, said Vyacheslav Ovchinnikov, the commander-in-chief of the Russian Interior Ministry troops. Its success could be critical to the fate, not just of a few remote mountain passes but of the whole North Caucasus. The tenacity with which the rebels have defended the territory under their control and their brazen declaration of independence have confronted the Kremlin with the threat of a "domino effect" expelling Moscow from its own backyard. If unchecked, the contagion will spread from the hills of Dagestan down into the valleys and towards the Caspian Sea and, in the other direction, deep into the Caucasus's interior and up into the Russian heartland. Already, after only a week of combat, images of the battle currently raging in Dagestan bear an uncanny resemblance to those of the Russian military's worst ever humiliation and agony in Chechnya. Bearded rebels pose nonchalantly for the cameras in newly occupied villages, mocking Moscow's predictions of imminent and devastating victory over the enemy. Helicopter gunships and aircraft blast guerrilla positions with rockets that leave a trail of flames in the sky. A rabble-like force of Russian soldiers tries to negotiate mountain passes in armoured personnel carriers, sitting targets for the rebels. The most shocking images are of a Russian helicopter in flames at an airbase minutes after being hit by guerrilla fire, a passenger, possibly one of three generals on board at the time of the attack, fleeing the scene, a human torch. Even the rebel commanders are familiar faces from the Chechen war. Then they were unknown figures. More recently, thanks to daring terrorist operations deep behind Russian lines, they are world-famous. Mr Putin, when asked on Friday about the role of Shamil Basayev, the Chechen warlord, in the events in Dagestan: "I don't know that surname, I don't want to talk about this." In fact, as the head of Russia's domestic intelligence service until last Monday, Mr Putin knows only too well what Mr Basayev and his comrade, the Jordanian-born Khattab, are capable of. Taking their inspiration from Mr Basayev's namesake, the legendary 19th-century Caucasus leader Imam Shamil, they seem resolved to win back what their ancestor eventually lost - freedom from Russia. Imam Shamil united the tribes of Chechnya and Dagestan into one fighting force under the banner of Islam and defied the Tsar's armies and their brutal tactics for more than 30 years. In the past few years the rebels have already destabilised Dagestan, a republic within the Russian Federation roughly the size of Scotland and much more mountainous. Now they want to establish their own rule and kick out the Russians. For Moscow, losing Dagestan, which hugs the coast of the oil-rich Caspian Sea and extends north around ethnically Russian regions such as Stavropol, would be even more disastrous than its defeat in Chechnya. The domino effect could remove from Moscow's control other parts of the volatile North Caucasus such as Ingushetia and North Ossetia, where radical Islam and bandit armies are also in the ascendant. Chechnya's neighbours have sounded the alarm about the danger of the chaos spreading, among them Gen Ruslan Aushev, the president of Ingushetia and an Afghan veteran who has criticised the Russian military's tactics in Dagestan. He said: "I have fought in the mountains and know what it's like. The troops will just be hanging about and going to seed while being pounded, bombarded and nibbled at the whole time." The Russian General Staff is making mistakes as if the bloodbath in Chechnya, where raw conscripts were thrown straight into battle and tanks trapped by rubble were picked off in ruined streets, had never happened. The top brass seems reluctant to send infantry into the mountains to take on the rebels, preferring to use slow-moving armour and summoning a motley collection of specialist police units from all over the country. The only reason the guerrillas have still not been defeated, complained Mr Putin, is their refusal to venture out of the woods and fight like real soldiers. The London Telegraph, August 15, 1999 Internet Stocks Internet Stocks Down 40 Percent Since April The laws of levity set up the punch line DO THE laws of gravity apply in cyberspace? Certainly the prices of shares in Internet companies that earlier this year soared into the stratosphere have since fallen sharply, if not yet all the way to earth. This week the Goldman Sachs Internet-share index was down by more than 40% from its peak in April—back where it stood at the start of this year. So, rest in peace, Bubble.com? Not necessarily. Most of the cheer-leaders for Internet shares remain bullish on the long-term prospects for well-known firms, such as Amazon and eBay. They insist that following the euphoria that gripped the market between last October and April (when, on average, Internet share-prices nearly doubled), a pause for breath was always on the cards. Some actually predicted it, and took their own advice. Alberto Vilar, who runs the Amerindo technology fund, forecast in April that Internet share prices would tumble by up to 50% over the following six months, and sold a lot of shares accordingly. Despite the recent drop in share prices, the value of his fund has still risen by nearly 100% this year, following an 85% increase in 1998. “Sharp temporary corrections in share prices are a normal part of technology investing,” says the untroubled Mr Vilar. He concedes that it is possible that prices will fall a little further, but he is now buying again, expecting the whole Internet-share sector soon to move sharply up, while some of the best-known shares will go to “vastly new highs”. Equally sanguine are the best-known Internet analysts. Henry Blodget, of Merrill Lynch, puts the recent decline down to the rise in interest rates last month. That, and the prospect of further rate increases to come, have spooked the entire stockmarket. He also concedes that there has been some disappointing news about Internet firms. Take Amazon, for instance: its revenue growth has slowed down, its revenue per customer has fallen, and its cost of acquiring new customers has risen. But he thinks the news will improve later this year, and share prices will rise again. Moreover, most institutional investors are “underweight” in the Internet sector, and many are ready to pile in once prices seem to have bottomed out. All of this may be enough to give another euphoric puff to Internet-share prices. But it does not make those prices any less irrational. It remains true that nobody has a clear idea of how to value Internet companies—and that most analysts rely on shamelessly optimistic scenarios. For example, Mr Blodget reckons Amazon, with its $15 billion-or-so market capitalisation, is cheap because one day it will have a 30% share of what will be a $230 billion-a-year online-retailing market. Assume a 5% profit margin and a ratio of share price to earnings of 40, and the firm should have a market cap of $150 billion, he says. Trouble is, it is just as plausible to assume a 10% share of a $150 billion market (or worse), and a p/e ratio of 15. That would imply a market cap of only $11 billion. Reality check: in the first quarter of this year, Amazon’s actual revenues were $293m, and it made a $62m loss. The Internet is clearly changing the way the world works. Doubtless, some Internet shares will turn out to be bargains. It is sad but true, however, that during past technological revolutions few of the companies that pioneered the change proved to be good long-term investments. Others reaped the financial rewards. Nowadays, big, established companies such as General Electric, General Motors and Merrill Lynch have become zealous Internet converts. That means that prospects for most of the online upstarts are actually worsening by the day. Bubble.com may stay in business for a while yet, but even bubbles feel the tug of gravity. The Economist, August 13-20, 1999 ----- Aloha, He'Ping, Om, Shalom, Salaam. Em Hotep, Peace Be, Omnia Bona Bonis, All My Relations. Adieu, Adios, Aloha. Amen. 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