-Caveat Lector-
See full report -- at:
http://www.jimlord.to/SecretSurvey.cfm
Navy Predicts Widespread Y2K Failure
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19990819/V000093-081999-
idx.html
By Ted Bridis
Associated Press Writer
Thursday, August 19, 1999; 7:27 p.m. EDT
WASHINGTON (AP) -- A Navy report predicts "probable" or
"likely" failures in electrical and water systems for many cities
because of the Year 2000 technology problem -- an assessment more
dire than any other made by the government.
President Clinton's top Y2K adviser, John Koskinen, called the
Navy's conclusions overly cautious, saying they assumed that major
utilities would fail unless proved otherwise.
The most recent version of the study, updated less than two weeks
ago, predicted "probable" or "likely" partial failures in
electric utilities that serve nearly 60 of roughly 400 Navy and
Marine Corps facilities.
The study predicted "likely" partial electrical failures, for
example, at facilities in Orlando, Fla.; Gulfport, Miss.; Fort
Lauderdale, Fla.; and nine other small- to mid-size cities.
It also predicted "probable" partial water system failures in
Dallas; Nashville, Tenn.; Houston; Baton Rouge, La.; Montgomery,
Ala; Tulsa, Okla.; and 59 other cities.
The study forecast likely partial natural gas failures -- in the
middle of winter -- in Albany, N.Y.; Fort Worth, Texas; Pensacola,
Fla.; Charleston, S.C.; Columbus, Ohio; and Nashville.
The military report contrasts sharply with predictions from the
White House, which weeks ago said in a report that national
electrical failures are "highly unlikely." The White House report
also said disruptions in water service from the date rollover are
"increasingly unlikely."
Koskinen, who vouched for the authenticity of the Navy report,
noted that all its worst-case predictions for failures were marked
as "interim" or "partial" assessments.
"It's not nearly as interesting as the world coming to an end,"
said Koskinen. "The way they worked was, until you have
information for contingency planning purposes, you ought to assume
there was a problem."
The Year 2000 problem occurs because some computer programs,
especially older ones, might fail when the date changes to 2000.
Because the programs were written to recognize only the last two
digits of a year, such programs could read the digits "00" as
1900 instead of 2000, potentially causing problems with financial
transactions, airline schedules and electrical grids.
The Navy report was first summarized on an Internet site run by Jim
Lord, a Y2K author, who said he obtained it "from a confidential
source of the highest reliability and integrity."
"The military has to work from the worst case, but so do we,"
Lord told The Associated Press on Thursday. "It's reprehensible
for them to know this and keep it from us."
Koskinen said the Navy wasn't withholding information from anyone,
noting that the continually updated report was available until
recently on a Web site maintained by the Defense Department.
"The last people in the world the department is going to keep
information from is their own people," Koskinen said. "In fact,
the whole purpose of the exercise is to make sure they can provide
appropriate information to servicemen on their bases and their
families.
The report was pulled off the Web site two weeks, Koskinen said.
Neither he nor Defense Department officials offered any reason why.
� Copyright 1999 The Associated Press
.
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