-Caveat Lector-
Colombia
GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
U.S. Proposes Intervention Forces for Latin
American Crises
June 10, 1999
SUMMARY
During a meeting of the Organization of American States
(OAS) the U.S. proposed the creation of a multinational
force to guarantee the security of the Western
Hemisphere. At the same time, the U.S. is reportedly
pushing a plan to support Colombia's neighbors with
aircraft and intelligence in their efforts to contain
Colombian guerrillas. With its OAS proposal in the long
term and its Colombia plan in the short term, the U.S.
appears eager to become more actively involved in
resolving Latin America's long running conflicts. This
promises at best a mixed blessing for U.S. businesses
currently operating in Colombia and throughout the
region, as greater U.S. involvement will draw greater
reaction from the region's rebels.
ANALYSIS
A report in the June 9 edition of the Colombian
newspaper El Tiempo described a U.S. proposal to
create a multinational intervention force for Latin
America. The proposal, which was presented at a
meeting of the General Assembly of the Organization of
American States (OAS), calls for a "group of friendly
countries," who are closely linked politically or
economically, to intervene in internal conflicts
threatening democracy in Latin American countries.
Although Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico,
Peru, and Venezuela opposed the U.S. proposal, the
U.S. representative to the OAS, Victor Marrero, said
the
proposal was not dead. "We never hoped that the
proposal would be approved at this session, we just
wanted to put the matter on the table for discussion.
But
this topic is not dead," Marrero said. Objections to
the
proposal centered on who would determine if a crisis
was serious enough to warrant intervention, as well as
the form and degree of intervention necessary.
In a potentially related report, the June 7 edition of
the
Colombian newspaper "El Espectador" reported details
of what it claimed is a U.S. plan to block the spread
of
Colombian guerrilla activity to neighboring countries.
According to the report, which cited U.S. State
Department sources, the U.S. is planning to support
border forces in Brazil, Ecuador, Panama, Peru, and
Venezuela with aircraft and intelligence to help
contain
the Colombian rebels. At the same time, the U.S. State
Department would reportedly label the Fuerzas Armadas
Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) and the Ejercito
de Liberacion Nacional (ELN) "narco-guerrillas,"
declaring them responsible for participating in the
narcotics industry in Colombia. The alleged plan would
also involve extradition requests aimed at linking the
insurgency more closely with the drug trade. In more
concretely linking the guerrillas with the narcotics
trade,
the El Tiempo claims that the State Department hopes
to both reduce criticism from the U.S. Congress and to
build regional support for a multinational force.
The U.S. State Department has long woven a tortuous
argument that, while the U.S. is not and will not
become
involved in battling Colombia's guerrillas, it is
actively
participating in the war on drugs. And since Colombia's
guerrillas are participating in narcotics production
and
trafficking, then... and the rest occurs in the
Colombian
jungle. In actively touting a plan for multinational
intervention against "threats to democracy" in Latin
America; in planning to actively assist Colombia's
neighbors in battling incursions by Colombian
guerrillas;
and in linking the FARC and ELN more directly to the
drug trade, the U.S. appears to be moving beyond its
doublespeak. While still doing so in a roundabout
manner, the U.S. appears to be deepening its
commitment to Colombian counterinsurgency (COIN)
operations.
This increased U.S. involvement, still short of a full
and
public commitment to Colombia's war on the FARC and
ELN, may bring repercussions against U.S. businesses
and counter-narcotics forces in the region. U.S.
military
personnel and particularly Drug Enforcement Agency
(DEA) personnel have been targets of guerrillas and
drug lords alike since the 1980s. Still, Colombia's
guerrillas have attempted to avoid killing too many
Americans or directly attacking U.S. forces in the
region,
as the threat of full scale U.S. retaliation has
outweighed
the political benefits to be gained from such attacks.
However, a more active U.S. role in COIN in the region
may change that equation, increasing the risks to U.S.
government and military personnel -- and possibly to
U.S. businessmen and tourists -- in Latin America.
That,
in turn, could demand a still deeper U.S. involvement
in
Colombian COIN, and away slides the U.S. down a
slippery slope.
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