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Russia, China forming space alliance
Effort could lead to
anti-U.S. satellite weapons
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By Jon E. Dougherty
© 1999 WorldNetDaily.com
Recent launch failures in the flagging Russian space program may be prompting
Moscow to strengthen ties with China in an effort to form a cooperative space
program -- not just for mutual commercial development, but for strategic
military reasons as well.
The latest launch failures came in late October. A Russian rocket carrying a
communications satellite blew up shortly after take-off from the Baikonur
launch pad in Kazakstan, while another launch failure caused enough concern
within the Kazakstan government to suspend indefinitely Moscow's remaining
1999 schedule, which included additional planned launches in November and
December. Both incidents reportedly were caused by a Russian-designed Proton
rocket malfunction.
A spokesman for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
confirmed to WorldNetDaily the Sino-Russian "cooperative space effort," which
reportedly will cover the areas of applied space research, long-term programs
for piloted (manned space mission) research, and fundamental research and
elements connected with the creation of spacecraft. A separate report said
Moscow penned a similar cooperative space agreement with India on Dec. 21,
1998.
Russia also announced Oct. 18 that it would help oversee Beijing's first
manned space flight, scheduled for early next year. That announcement
followed another on Oct. 27 that both countries would "cooperate on
scientific projects," ostensibly including space projects as well.
However, experts disagree over the implications of the new alliance. Some see
it as a pragmatic, purely commercial venture while others say there is a real
possibility of a new space-based military threat to the U.S. Still others are
concerned that technology used in the International Space Station (ISS), in
which Russia is a participant, could eventually find its way to Beijing.
Greg May, assistant director for the Nixon Center, a non-partisan national
security think tank in Washington, D.C., told WorldNetDaily Russia had sold
Soyuz-type space capsules to China and that the two countries were "toying"
with the notion of a manned space flight. He also acknowledged Western
concerns that such an alliance could pose a strategic risk to the U.S. and
Western nations.
"It doesn't really accomplish much and it's a lot of money," he said, adding
"some (Chinese) leaders view it more as a stunt than anything else."
Nevertheless, a BBC Online report said the Chinese government "is preparing
furiously for its first manned space mission" and is intent "on landings on
the Moon and Mars."
More important than manned space missions, though, May said there are larger
concerns in the U.S. that the recent Sino-Russian space agreements would
include the development of technology to defeat U.S. satellites in orbit. "It
would be very naïve" to assume China was not actively developing an
anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon system, said May, "especially since they know
their embassy in Belgrade was destroyed with a weapon that was guided by a
U.S. satellite."
But, he cautioned, "it's important not to simply take what China says it
wants to do and extrapolate that into some sort of capability. There's a
tendency in the West to do that."
Phillip Clark, an expert on Chinese and Russian space programs for Jane's
Intelligence Review, based in Hastings, England, told WorldNetDaily that he
believes China is serious about manned space launches, but he downplayed the
strategic threat.
"I believe the alliance is mostly a commercial effort," he said. "The
Russians especially see a joint space launch venture with China appealing,
especially now that their economy is in trouble."
Regarding ASAT technology, Clark said that the Russians already had conducted
anti-satellite testing from the late 1960s until around 1985, until a treaty
prohibiting further testing was signed between Moscow and the U.S. He said he
didn't know if China signed the agreement.
"Those tests generally were perceived by Western intelligence sources to have
been about 50 percent successful," he said, adding, "There have been some
reports about Chinese testing of anti-satellite capabilities," but the
"pedigree" of those reports "is in question."
One such report -- the Cox Committee Report on Chinese Espionage -- names
Russia as "a major supplier of space launch technology to the People's
Republic of China (PRC)," but also emphasizes Beijing's quest for dominant
space weaponry.
The report quoted PLA Navy Senior Col. Shen Zhongchang as saying: "By the
next century, as high-tech space technology develops, the deployment of
space-based weapons systems will be bound to make 'mastery of space' and
'mastery of outer space' prerequisites for naval victory."
The Cox Committee said, "... The PRC is embarked on a modernization plan for
its ballistic missile and space forces. This expansion includes the
exploitation of space-based military reconnaissance and communications
satellites and space-based weapons."
The committee said China was already a "major space power," whose
capabilities include "a family of rockets, numerous satellites, and a
telemetry, tracking, and control network." Russia and China are already
cooperating on the development of space- and ground-based lasers that are
specifically designed to knock out U.S. satellites in orbit, the report said.
"Based on the significant level of PRC-Russian cooperation on weapons
development, it is possible that the PRC will be able to use nuclear reactors
to pump lasers with pulse energies high enough to destroy satellites. In
addition, Russian cooperation could help the PRC to develop an advanced radar
system using lasers to track and image satellites," according to the report.
"The Select Committee judges that the PRC has the technical capability to
develop direct ascent anti-satellite weapons," said the Cox report. "The
CSS-2 could be modified for use in this role. This would be similar to the
approach taken by the Soviets with their SS-9 ASAT (anti-satellite) system."
Ironically, as early as May 1996, then-Secretary of Defense William J. Perry
told reporters he believed Russia "may be" in violation of the Strategic Arms
Reduction Treaty (START) if Moscow approved transfers of anything other than
"basic" ICBM technology to China -- the exact same technology used to launch
rockets carrying satellites and space weapons platforms into space.
"We believe that would be a significant mistake to transfer the ...
technology to China and have so represented our position to the Russian ...
government," he said. "With the exception of making boosters available for
space launching -- and even then under tight control -- other transfers of
ICBM technology would be in our view a violation of the START agreement and
of the missile technology control regime."
Clark added that he believed the Chinese might already have tested a
space-based weapons launch platform, but that the PRC was not "actively"
pursuing more testing "at the present."
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