-Caveat Lector- from: http://www.zolatimes.com/V3.48/ww3.htm Click Here: <A HREF="http://www.zolatimes.com/V3.48/ww3.htm">The World War III Scorecard, by Dr. Jack Wheeler</A> ----- The World War III Scorecard by Dr. Jack Wheeler This century, as we know all too well, has seen two wars of such global scope that they were christened "World Wars." Will the next century see a third? I fervently hope not, and might even venture to say probably not, but I certainly can't say never, that there will not. At the end of the 19th century, there was the euphoric conviction that the new century would be one of unparalleled peace and prosperity. The prediction that 14 years later Europe would be engulfed in mass slaughter beyond anyone's imagination would have been called lunacy. I am making no such prediction now. Yet I do think it prudent to see where in the world the best chances for a war of global scope might be in the first decade or two of our new millennium. Let's first look at where it almost cannot be. Not Africa. Local slaughters will remain endemic until the entire map of the continent is redrawn into political units that make cultural, geographical, and economic sense. But there is nothing there that can engulf other continents. Not South America, even though Colombia is now the most dysfunctional state in the Western Hemisphere, while its neighbor and the US's biggest foreign oil supplier, Venezuela, has embraced a Castro-type pathology. It's possible the US could get involved here militarily, but it wouldn't go beyond that. Not North America, surely. Canada could break up with Quebec, Mexico could break up with northern Mexico bailing out of being controlled by the irretrievably corrupt national government in Mexico City, and either or both could put severe stress on US border regions wanting to shear off from Washington's clutches. Again, whatever hostilities might emerge from this won't go global. We'll also leave out Australia and the Pacific. How about Europe? It's just about impossible to see where and how a big war would develop there. All most Germans dream about, for example, is going on vacation. The Middle East? The odds obviously increase here. Yet in any major conflict between Israel and the West versus the Arabs, it's hard to see who the Arabs' allies would be. Don't bet on their Moslem buddies. Islamic countries everywhere are deafeningly quiet about Russia's genocide of the Moslems in Chechnya, or China's oppression of Moslems in East Turkestan. That's why all the Arabs can threaten is terrorism. And it's also hard to see how Russia all by its lonesome could get a global conflict going. Stripped of Marxism as the ideological justification for imperialism, all it has left is naked Russian colonialism, which everyone except the fascist goofball who runs Belarus resists. So we come to Asia. Here is where WWIII, if it happens, will take place � and it will be between India and China. India already has a billion people. They are the two biggest boys on the block, and they almost have to fight sooner or later. The rationale for India's army is to oppose Pakistan, which is disintegrating. Another enemy is needed: the oppressors of India's cultural brethren in Tibet, who stole the Aksai Chin region from it in 1962, and still claim half of Arunachal Pradesh. Further, both India and China may require a war as the only means to generate enough fervent nationalism to override the centrifugal forces building to break both countries apart. Information Age Capitalism is deadly to Beijing's and New Delhi's control over their territories. As various regions of China become more prosperous, the more they will bolt from national control and seize more regional autonomy. As more and more people become prosperous in India, the more destructive it is of the caste system upon which Hinduism depends. The more non-Hindi speaking regions like Tamil Nadu flourish, the more independence from New Delhi they will demand. Both governments will conclude that only a war of sufficient size with a sufficiently infuriating foreign devil will keep them intact and in power. If such a war breaks out, it will be of global immensity � and China will lose. China will lose for two reasons: it will have no allies, and it will not have enough people. Japan, Korea, the Philippines, the US, Europe would either attempt to stay neutral or support India as a fellow democracy. China's only possible ally of any significance would be Russia. Yet China is already in the process of sub rosa taking over Far Eastern Russia (primarily the district of Primorski Krai which blocks all of Chinese Manchuria from access to the Sea of Japan, and which the Russians stole from China in 1860) through immigration. The odds are high that China will go to war with Russia over this border region, and before war with India has burgeoned. Russia will lose badly and thus be driven into the Western camp, and into India's with which it has had a long-standing alliance. OK, so China will have no allies, but how could I conceivably say that it will not have enough people? Yes, China has vast numbers of people � but they are getting old. So old that they don't have time to get rich. My friend Enders Wimbush, former Director of Radio Liberty who now runs a black box think tank, has conducted a fascinating comparative study of how fast countries are aging relative to how fast they are getting rich. The key question is: does a country have time to get rich before it gets old? The economies of Germany and Japan are headed south, but they're all right because they got rich before they got old. India, with its teeming millions of young people, has the time to pull it off. China, because of its one-child-per-family policy (resulting in mass female infanticide due to the depraved Chinese passion for sons), does not. China has committed demographic suicide, because now its people will get old before they can get rich. Demography and democracy are on India's side, thus so are the odds. Again, this is not a prediction. But if there could be a Third World War looming on the 21st century horizon, it's in Asia, it's between India and China, it will engulf the planet � and the best way to defuse and halt its possibility is to start to do so soon. The strategy is obvious. Beijing and New Delhi must be persuaded to decontrol, denationalize power, regionalize autonomy. The more centralized, the more power a government has, the more able it is to wage war � the less centralized, the less able. There are a number of means of persuasion available � but right up there is leading by example, such as President G.W. Bush declaring the US Government will henceforth obey the 10th Amendment to the Constitution, decentralizing Washington's power. However achieved, the goal should be clear � to disperse political power in both India and China such that their national governments do not have the capacity to engage in a war convulsing one-third of the human race in the first place. * Zorro and the Dinosaur. Last week I was in Monterrey, Mexico speaking to a group of company presidents and business leaders. What I told them elated some and frightened others: that the election of Francisco Labastida next year may cause the breakup of the Mexican nation. The presidential candidate from the ruling PRI party, Labastida looks resolutely towards the past. The antithesis of Ernesto Zedillo (current president from the PRI's pro-free trade/free market wing), he is a lifelong bureaucrat who hails from the PRI's retrograde socialist wing. Possessing no vision of the future, no understanding of modern economics, all he talks about is subsidies � subsidies for housing, subsidies for farmers, subsidies for business � and how opposed he is to privatization. Politicians so stuck in the past as this are called "dinosaurs" in Mexico, and if this dinosaur gets elected next July, both foreign investment and the now-roaring stock market will collapse. Monterrey is a city on the move, with a vibrant economy rapidly heading towards the information age. It is also the capital of the state of Nueva Leon, whose governor is from the pro-capitalist PAN party, not the corrupt PRI which has ruled Mexico for 70 years. It turns out, though, that Mexico has no actual states like the US. What are called states, like Nueva Leon, Puebla, or Sinaloa, are really administrative districts of the national government in Mexico City. You may think this is, or is fast becoming, the way Washington is taking over state authority here, but it is vastly worse in Mexico. Mexican states have no taxing authority of their own. All taxes go to Mexico City which disburses it back to the provinces. For every dollar the national government takes out of Nueva Leon, eighteen cents is returned. Monterreans are getting fed up with this, and have begun demanding this ratio be reversed. Labastida as president will greatly accelerate the nascent movement of northern Mexico away from central government control. Yet for the first time in 70 years, the PRI faces an opponent who could take the presidency away: Vicente Fox, successful entrepreneur businessman and leader of the PAN. Foreign investment would pour into Mexico with a Fox victory next July. A Mexico firmly on the Information Age Capitalist road would be the hottest place for investment on the planet � and keep Mexico in one piece. In Spanish, the word for "fox" is zorro. So let's hope Zorro can rescue his country from the government thieves, just like in the movies. * "Well, Reverend, that tears it." That's what John Wayne says to Ward Bond in my favorite John Wayne film, The Searchers. Bond has done something so intolerable to Wayne that he refuses to follow Bond's authority any more. Here in Washington, the most powerful authority figure in the conservative movement is Paul Weyrich, head of the Free Congress Foundation (and a reverend in the Greek Orthodox church). Paul has long been known for his explosive and demanding temperament. But he has finally gone around the bend by publicly supporting Russia's war against the Chechens. Possessed of the truly crazy idea that the Chechens, because they are Moslems, are a grave threat to Western Civilization and Christendom, Paul claims the Russians are the good guys and are morally justified in murdering Moslems by the thousands. So I'm waiting for a Wayne-like pronouncement from Washington's other conservative leaders that Weyrich has forfeited any influence upon them. That would require some Wayne-like intestinal fortitude on their part � instead of their being testicularly challenged. * The Ultimate Christmas Present. Many of you have told me that the most memorable issue of JWSI was August, 1998, "What Life Is All About," telling of my climb of the Matterhorn with my 14-year old son, Brandon. Since that climb, Brandon's dream is to someday climb the Seven Summits, the highest mountain in all seven continents. Since he was five, the highlight of each year for me was taking Brandon on an adventure � to the Amazon, Indian Tibet, and elsewhere around the world. Now he is 16, and I knew what he wanted more than anything � to climb Africa's Kilimanjaro, and by himself. So I decided that would be his Christmas present. At 16, I went off alone to be adopted into a tribe of Amazon headhunters. Now it was his turn, and my time to let go. He had Thanksgiving week off from school. Off he flew alone to northern Tanzania, where I arranged for a climbing guide from the local Chagga tribe. Kilimanjaro is an endurance climb, 70 miles from 5,000 feet to over 19,000 feet and back in five days. On the final climb to the summit, Brandon was so sick even drinking water made him throw up. He didn't have the physical strength to put one foot in front of him. Yet he willed his feet forward, again, and again, and again, until finally, at 8:30am November 24, 1999, Brandon stood on the summit of Kilimanjaro, 19,443 feet above the continent of Africa. I was not there with him. He had done it alone. He knows now he is capable of going completely beyond himself to accomplish something extraordinary. That is the ultimate Christmas present I wanted him to have. I don't know who is prouder � me of my son, or my son of himself. Merry Christmas, Brandon � and Merry Christmas to you all. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Dr. Jack Wheeler, often credited with the "Reagan Doctrine" for bring down the Soviet Union, writes the publication Dr. Jack Wheeler's Strategic Intelligence (JWSI). -30- from The Laissez Faire City Times, Vol 3, No 48, December 13, 1999 ----- Aloha, He'Ping, Om, Shalom, Salaam. Em Hotep, Peace Be, All My Relations, Omnia Bona Bonis, Adieu, Adios, Aloha. Amen. Roads End DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance�not soapboxing! 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