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from:
http://www.zolatimes.com/V3.48/ww3.htm
Click Here: <A HREF="http://www.zolatimes.com/V3.48/ww3.htm">The World War
III Scorecard, by Dr. Jack Wheeler</A>
-----
The World War III Scorecard



by Dr. Jack Wheeler

This century, as we know all too well, has seen two wars of such global scope
that they were christened "World Wars." Will the next century see a third? I
fervently hope not, and might even venture to say probably not, but I
certainly can't say never, that there will not. At the end of the 19th
century, there was the euphoric conviction that the new century would be one
of unparalleled peace and prosperity. The prediction that 14 years later
Europe would be engulfed in mass slaughter beyond anyone's imagination would
have been called lunacy. I am making no such prediction now. Yet I do think
it prudent to see where in the world the best chances for a war of global
scope might be in the first decade or two of our new millennium.

Let's first look at where it almost cannot be. Not Africa. Local slaughters
will remain endemic until the entire map of the continent is redrawn into
political units that make cultural, geographical, and economic sense. But
there is nothing there that can engulf other continents. Not South America,
even though Colombia is now the most dysfunctional state in the Western
Hemisphere, while its neighbor and the US's biggest foreign oil supplier,
Venezuela, has embraced a Castro-type pathology. It's possible the US could
get involved here militarily, but it wouldn't go beyond that. Not North
America, surely. Canada could break up with Quebec, Mexico could break up
with northern Mexico bailing out of being controlled by the irretrievably
corrupt national government in Mexico City, and either or both could put
severe stress on US border regions wanting to shear off from Washington's
clutches. Again, whatever hostilities might emerge from this won't go global.

We'll also leave out Australia and the Pacific. How about Europe? It's just
about impossible to see where and how a big war would develop there. All most
Germans dream about, for example, is going on vacation. The Middle East? The
odds obviously increase here. Yet in any major conflict between Israel and
the West versus the Arabs, it's hard to see who the Arabs' allies would be.
Don't bet on their Moslem buddies. Islamic countries everywhere are
deafeningly quiet about Russia's genocide of the Moslems in Chechnya, or
China's oppression of Moslems in East Turkestan. That's why all the Arabs can
threaten is terrorism. And it's also hard to see how Russia all by its
lonesome could get a global conflict going. Stripped of Marxism as the
ideological justification for imperialism, all it has left is naked Russian
colonialism, which everyone except the fascist goofball who runs Belarus
resists.

So we come to Asia. Here is where WWIII, if it happens, will take place � and
it will be between India and China. India already has a billion people. They
are the two biggest boys on the block, and they almost have to fight sooner
or later. The rationale for India's army is to oppose Pakistan, which is
disintegrating. Another enemy is needed: the oppressors of India's cultural
brethren in Tibet, who stole the Aksai Chin region from it in 1962, and still
claim half of Arunachal Pradesh. Further, both India and China may require a
war as the only means to generate enough fervent nationalism to override the
centrifugal forces building to break both countries apart.

Information Age Capitalism is deadly to Beijing's and New Delhi's control
over their territories. As various regions of China become more prosperous,
the more they will bolt from national control and seize more regional
autonomy. As more and more people become prosperous in India, the more
destructive it is of the caste system upon which Hinduism depends. The more
non-Hindi speaking regions like Tamil Nadu flourish, the more independence
from New Delhi they will demand. Both governments will conclude that only a
war of sufficient size with a sufficiently infuriating foreign devil will
keep them intact and in power. If such a war breaks out, it will be of global
immensity � and China will lose.

China will lose for two reasons: it will have no allies, and it will not have
enough people. Japan, Korea, the Philippines, the US, Europe would either
attempt to stay neutral or support India as a fellow democracy. China's only
possible ally of any significance would be Russia. Yet China is already in
the process of sub rosa taking over Far Eastern Russia (primarily the
district of Primorski Krai which blocks all of Chinese Manchuria from access
to the Sea of Japan, and which the Russians stole from China in 1860) through
immigration. The odds are high that China will go to war with Russia over
this border region, and before war with India has burgeoned. Russia will lose
badly and thus be driven into the Western camp, and into India's with which
it has had a long-standing alliance.

OK, so China will have no allies, but how could I conceivably say that it
will not have enough people? Yes, China has vast numbers of people � but they
are getting old. So old that they don't have time to get rich. My friend
Enders Wimbush, former Director of Radio Liberty who now runs a black box
think tank, has conducted a fascinating comparative study of how fast
countries are aging relative to how fast they are getting rich. The key
question is: does a country have time to get rich before it gets old? The
economies of Germany and Japan are headed south, but they're all right
because they got rich before they got old. India, with its teeming millions
of young people, has the time to pull it off. China, because of its
one-child-per-family policy (resulting in mass female infanticide due to the
depraved Chinese passion for sons), does not. China has committed demographic
suicide, because now its people will get old before they can get rich.
Demography and democracy are on India's side, thus so are the odds. Again,
this is not a prediction. But if there could be a Third World War looming on
the 21st century horizon, it's in Asia, it's between India and China, it will
engulf the planet � and the best way to defuse and halt its possibility is to
start to do so soon. The strategy is obvious. Beijing and New Delhi must be
persuaded to decontrol, denationalize power, regionalize autonomy. The more
centralized, the more power a government has, the more able it is to wage war
� the less centralized, the less able. There are a number of means of
persuasion available � but right up there is leading by example, such as
President G.W. Bush declaring the US Government will henceforth obey the 10th
Amendment to the Constitution, decentralizing Washington's power. However
achieved, the goal should be clear � to disperse political power in both
India and China such that their national governments do not have the capacity
to engage in a war convulsing one-third of the human race in the first place.


*   Zorro and the Dinosaur. Last week I was in Monterrey, Mexico speaking to
a group of company presidents and business leaders. What I told them elated
some and frightened others: that the election of Francisco Labastida next
year may cause the breakup of the Mexican nation. The presidential candidate
from the ruling PRI party, Labastida looks resolutely towards the past. The
antithesis of Ernesto Zedillo (current president from the PRI's pro-free
trade/free market wing), he is a lifelong bureaucrat who hails from the PRI's
retrograde socialist wing. Possessing no vision of the future, no
understanding of modern economics, all he talks about is subsidies �
subsidies for housing, subsidies for farmers, subsidies for business � and
how opposed he is to privatization. Politicians so stuck in the past as this
are called "dinosaurs" in Mexico, and if this dinosaur gets elected next
July, both foreign investment and the now-roaring stock market will collapse.
Monterrey is a city on the move, with a vibrant economy rapidly heading
towards the information age. It is also the capital of the state of Nueva
Leon, whose governor is from the pro-capitalist PAN party, not the corrupt
PRI which has ruled Mexico for 70 years. It turns out, though, that Mexico
has no actual states like the US. What are called states, like Nueva Leon,
Puebla, or Sinaloa, are really administrative districts of the national
government in Mexico City. You may think this is, or is fast becoming, the
way Washington is taking over state authority here, but it is vastly worse in
Mexico. Mexican states have no taxing authority of their own. All taxes go to
Mexico City which disburses it back to the provinces. For every dollar the
national government takes out of Nueva Leon, eighteen cents is returned.
Monterreans are getting fed up with this, and have begun demanding this ratio
be reversed. Labastida as president will greatly accelerate the nascent
movement of northern Mexico away from central government control. Yet for the
first time in 70 years, the PRI faces an opponent who could take the
presidency away: Vicente Fox, successful entrepreneur businessman and leader
of the PAN. Foreign investment would pour into Mexico with a Fox victory next
July. A Mexico firmly on the Information Age Capitalist road would be the
hottest place for investment on the planet � and keep Mexico in one piece. In
Spanish, the word for "fox" is zorro. So let's hope Zorro can rescue his
country from the government thieves, just like in the movies.

*   "Well, Reverend, that tears it." That's what John Wayne says to Ward Bond
in my favorite John Wayne film, The Searchers. Bond has done something so
intolerable to Wayne that he refuses to follow Bond's authority any more.
Here in Washington, the most powerful authority figure in the conservative
movement is Paul Weyrich, head of the Free Congress Foundation (and a
reverend in the Greek Orthodox church). Paul has long been known for his
explosive and demanding temperament. But he has finally gone around the bend
by publicly supporting Russia's war against the Chechens. Possessed of the
truly crazy idea that the Chechens, because they are Moslems, are a grave
threat to Western Civilization and Christendom, Paul claims the Russians are
the good guys and are morally justified in murdering Moslems by the
thousands. So I'm waiting for a Wayne-like pronouncement from Washington's
other conservative leaders that Weyrich has forfeited any influence upon
them. That would require some Wayne-like intestinal fortitude on their part �
instead of their being testicularly challenged.

*   The Ultimate Christmas Present. Many of you have told me that the most
memorable issue of JWSI was August, 1998, "What Life Is All About," telling
of my climb of the Matterhorn with my 14-year old son, Brandon. Since that
climb, Brandon's dream is to someday climb the Seven Summits, the highest
mountain in all seven continents. Since he was five, the highlight of each
year for me was taking Brandon on an adventure � to the Amazon, Indian Tibet,
and elsewhere around the world. Now he is 16, and I knew what he wanted more
than anything � to climb Africa's Kilimanjaro, and by himself. So I decided
that would be his Christmas present. At 16, I went off alone to be adopted
into a tribe of Amazon headhunters. Now it was his turn, and my time to let
go. He had Thanksgiving week off from school. Off he flew alone to northern
Tanzania, where I arranged for a climbing guide from the local Chagga tribe.
Kilimanjaro is an endurance climb, 70 miles from 5,000 feet to over 19,000
feet and back in five days. On the final climb to the summit, Brandon was so
sick even drinking water made him throw up. He didn't have the physical
strength to put one foot in front of him. Yet he willed his feet forward,
again, and again, and again, until finally, at 8:30am November 24, 1999,
Brandon stood on the summit of Kilimanjaro, 19,443 feet above the continent
of Africa. I was not there with him. He had done it alone. He knows now he is
capable of going completely beyond himself to accomplish something
extraordinary. That is the ultimate Christmas present I wanted him to have. I
don't know who is prouder � me of my son, or my son of himself. Merry
Christmas, Brandon � and Merry Christmas to you all.


------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dr. Jack Wheeler, often credited with the "Reagan Doctrine" for bring down
the Soviet Union, writes the publication Dr. Jack Wheeler's Strategic
Intelligence (JWSI).
-30-
from The Laissez Faire City Times, Vol 3, No 48, December 13, 1999
-----
Aloha, He'Ping,
Om, Shalom, Salaam.
Em Hotep, Peace Be,
All My Relations,
Omnia Bona Bonis,
Adieu, Adios, Aloha.
Amen.
Roads End

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