-Caveat Lector-

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-----

Panama Canal


Communist Rebel Threat to Panama


45 Marines Killed Near Border

COLOMBIAN communist rebels have attacked a naval base on the border with
Panama, killing 45 marines, it was reported yesterday. The hostilities came
as America prepared for the official handover of the Panama Canal today after
an occupation lasting almost a century.

About 600 members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia launched the
attack on the Pacific coast town of Jurado on Sunday. US military authorities
are worried that the guerrillas could launch attacks inside Panama and even
on the canal itself once America's withdrawal is complete.
The attack was one of the heaviest in more than a year and was thought to be
the worst defeat suffered by a naval unit in Colombia's long-running war that
has claimed more than 35,000 lives in the past 10 years.

Today's handover ceremony will be a deliberately low-key affair, with America
wanting to bow out of the region quietly. Madeleine Albright, the US
Secretary of State, cancelled her visit, leaving former President Jimmy
Carter, who signed the Canal Treaty in 1977, to lead the American delegation.
Panama's Foreign Minister, Jose Miguel Aleman, played down the significance
of the low level of US representation and hailed a new age in relations with
the superpower that has dominated Panama's history. Other dignitaries due to
attend the ceremony include King Juan Carlos of Spain and the president
Ernesto Zedillo of Mexico.

With the transfer of the waterway, Panama's chief economic resource will pass
into Panamanian hands, giving the country of 2.8 million people full
sovereignty over all its territory for the first time since it won
independence from Colombia in 1903. Panama will regain all 363,000 acres of
lush tropical land the United States has used for military bases.
A recent poll in La Prensa daily newspaper disclosed that 61 per cent of the
population were opposed to a complete withdrawal of the American military who
will be gone by Dec 31, the official handover day.

Panamanians have good reason to fear the departure of American troops, whose
numbers peaked at 64,000 during the Second World War. Colombian guerrillas
and drug smugglers have already begun to wage "turf wars" near deserted US
bases.

"The truth is that we cannot believe they're going," said Javier Castano, a
bar owner. "We always thought there would be some deal, like the anti-drug
centre, which would mean US troops stayed."
The Colombian army, which is 120,000 strong, has struggled to contain the
20,000 guerrillas and it is widely accepted that Panama would have little
chance against them. It simply hopes the border problem will go away.

While US-Panamanian relations in the next century largely remain to be
defined, leaders said mutual economic interests and democratic principles
would be key. The United States is the canal's largest customer.
The London Telegraph, December 14, 1999


Fear 2000


Asia Is Not Afraid of the Big, Bad Y2K Wolf


The cell phones may be out, but the hookers will still be in service.

KATMANDU - Less than a year after doomsayers painted Asia and the Pacific as
the world's biggest millennium-bug black spot, officials throughout the
region are proclaiming that their banks, businesses, governments and airlines
will greet the new year with few noticeable computer glitches.

''Eight months ago we drew up some very scary scenarios for Asia,'' said
Raeleigh Napier, Singapore-based regional millennium coordinator for British
American Tobacco PLC, one of the world's largest manufacturers and
distributors of cigarettes. ''Since then, the situation has dramatically
improved, with tons of old computers having been retired, replaced or
upgraded.''
Many experts had warned that Asia was woefully behind in attacking the
millennium bug and predicted widespread chaos due to power outages,
communication failures and errors in aircraft navigation.

The millennium bug, also known as the Y2K bug, is a programming glitch that
could cause some computers and electronic equipment to fail when their
internal clocks roll over from 1999 to 2000.
''We are now quite confident there will be no disruption whatsoever at the
port and business will continue as normal,'' Ms. Napier said, referring to
Khlong Toey port in Bangkok.

Nonetheless, British American Tobacco will follow through with contingency
plans for a two-week failure of the port facilities.

Although many private-sector analysts share the new confidence in Asia, some
skepticism persists. Many Asian airlines have reduced flights on New Year's
Eve, and many countries have advised people to prepare for problems.

Both Japan and the Philippines have urged people to stockpile canned goods,
cash and enough food and water to last for several days.

''We don't think any big disruptions will take place, but it is important to
be prepared for the worst,'' said Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi of Japan in a
30-second announcement that started airing on television early this month.

Still, confidence in Asia's readiness runs deep. ''In the past few months,
optimists in Asia have started outnumbering pessimists,'' said Alex Woo, a
vice president at J.P. Morgan in Singapore. ''As for those persistent
doomsayers, I would question whether they have thoroughly investigated what
has really been happening.''

Even countries with cash-strapped financial systems devastated by the recent
economic crisis have been cracking down to ensure bank compliance, Mr. Woo
said.
In Nepal, earnest examination of the millennium bug started in April at the
behest of the United Nations.

''I must say that the Canadian expert sent here by the United Nations was
rather panicked and scared when he first flew into Katmandu,'' said Shankar
Sharma, chairman of Nepal's national millennium bug committee. ''I think it
was the total lack of documentation about our computer systems that worried
him most.''

While working their way through critical computer systems, Nepalese officials
replaced five national telephone switching systems, upgraded the automatic
message switching system at the main airport, inspected the country's two
automatic teller machines and confirmed Mr. Sharma's suspicion that all
eleven banks still rely heavily on handwritten bookkeeping.

''The banks don't fully trust computers yet,'' Mr. Sharma said. ''As for
electricity, if you cannot get it, people in Nepal and other developing
nations do not mind so much.''

In presenting his report to the cabinet this month, Mr. Sharma demanded that
the chief of civil aviation fly from Katmandu on the evening of Dec. 31.

''He said he was happy to fly out of Nepal, but so many airlines have
canceled flights that it could be quite impossible to get a ticket,'' Mr.
Sharma said.

Ironically, many of the more noticeable Y2K disruptions could come from panic
sparked by contingency plans rather than from the bug itself, analysts said.

Japan is putting 96,000 soldiers on heightened alert, while banks in Thailand
are considering a total shutdown of automatic teller machines on New Year's
Eve.

''The biggest danger is panic-driven behavior of the population due to
inadequate understanding of the real situation,'' said Chris Morris, Hong
Kong-based research director of Gartner Group Pacific. ''There are many
crackpots out there who see Y2K as a means of publicizing their own beliefs
of Armageddon, CIA plots and the start of a neo-Luddite era.''

China and Indonesia consistently rank among the countries most likely to
suffer Y2K problems, according to Mr. Morris and other analysts.

''Very large portions of their populations are not dependent on computers,
but parts of their economies are,'' Mr. Morris said by e-mail. He added that
the impact of computer failures would quite likely be diminished in
developing nations since manual fallback procedures are often kept in place.

For those using computers in Asia, the dropping price of new equipment
combined with rampant software piracy has brought many users to the forefront
of technology, protecting them against millennium problems, said Huynh Ngoc
Phien, a dean at the Asian Institute of Technology.
Even if the millennium bug does cause major disruptions, some say that their
customers are not very likely to complain.

''Please tell people that even though Kiribati will be the first country into
the new millennium, we do not worry about these Y2K problems at our hotel,''
said Inatio Teanako, manager of the 11-room Mary's Motel on Tarawa, an island
near the international date line. ''When the electricity goes off - which it
often does - our guests are usually very happy with candles.''
International Herald Tribune, December 14, 1999
-----
Aloha, He'Ping,
Om, Shalom, Salaam.
Em Hotep, Peace Be,
All My Relations,
Omnia Bona Bonis,
Adieu, Adios, Aloha.
Amen.
Roads End

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