-Caveat Lector- <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/"> </A> -Cui Bono?- Russian-Chinese Alliance Emerges By Jamie Dettmer in Moscow [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.insightmag.com/archive/200003104.shtml The determination of Russian leaders to bolster Russia�s military and to develop a strategic partnership with China is causing concern among Western foreign-policy experts. The indifference was almost lordly. While the Western media got all excited and U.S. State Department officials and their counterparts in Europe announced how pleased they were at the apparent willingness of Russian leader Vladimir Putin to improve relations with NATO, Beijing remained unfazed � and obviously unconvinced. Asked for a reaction to Putin having abruptly raised the possibility in March of Russia joining NATO, Chinese foreign-ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao casually remarked, �That is something between Russia and NATO.� The impression was clear � Beijing was skeptical that it would anytime soon witness Russia falling into line behind the West. The measured Chinese response was spot on. Within 48 hours of Putin�s NATO-entry remark � it was made during an interview with the British Broadcasting Corp., or BBC � the new Russian leader himself was just as abruptly pouring cold water on it, saying Moscow could not support the Western alliance in any action similar to its intervention in Yugoslavia. �We are not going to join such a union,� Putin flatly announced, ending speculation of a major foreign-policy shift that could see a thawing of frigid relations between Moscow and NATO. With that, it was clear that Putin�s BBC interview � the first he�s granted to a Western media outlet since he became acting president � was tailored simply to soften his strongman image in the West and to appeal to Western-leaning liberals in Russia ahead of the country�s presidential election on March 26. China was on sure ground in its skeptical response to Moscow�s unlikely inclusion in the Western military alliance. Of all Russia�s bilateral relations, it is the developing friendship with Beijing that is slowly adding a new complexity to the post-Cold War world � and one that Washington is starting to note nervously. Some foreign-policy analysts here in Moscow, in Europe and in the United States now argue that the burgeoning relationship between Russia and China is setting willy-nilly the two countries firmly on a collision course with Western interests. And they place the unfolding Moscow-Beijing linkup in the context of a series of recent Russian actions that suggest the Kremlin is more interested in returning to the past and once again becoming the West�s adversary. Last month, The Times of London warned that Putin�s determination to restore Russia�s greatness, his bolstering of the Russian military and his befriending of repressive regimes such as North Korea put �the West on notice that Russia will be a rival rather than a partner.� The paper criticized what it sees as complacency on the part of Western leaders, noting that U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright had praised Putin for his open-mindedness. The Russian leader�s �actions have sent a very different signal,� the paper concluded. Former Russian deputy prime minister Boris Nemtsov cautions the West not to interpret Russia�s pursuit of its national interests as a return to a �Soviet-style empire striking back.� While admitting there is a �dose of resentment� in Russia toward the West, he says that �except for a small number of fanatics and a few Slavophiles, Russians see no way back to the imperial past.� He adds: �Nor do they want it, even if they could have it. Today, no irredentist or nationalist movement has significant support in Russia.� Maybe so, but Putin�s dismissal of Western criticism of his campaign to subdue separatist rebels in Chechnya has struck a chord with Russians, and some Russian liberals worry that aggressive nationalism is lurking under the surface. U.S. officials maintain it still is too early to tell if Putin will emerge as a friendly or hostile leader. But they admit the closer ties between Moscow and Beijing are cause for concern. They say, at the very least, debates are more complicated now on the U.N. Security Council, where Russia and China frequently make common cause against interventionist initiatives favored by the United States and Britain. Deadlock on the U.N. Security Council reminiscent of the Cold War era again is becoming a regular occurrence. The �strategic partnership� between Moscow and Beijing has gathered momentum since last summer, when the two countries opposed NATO�s intervention in Kosovo. Both China and Russia argue they have no choice but to draw closer to counterbalance U.S. dominance. �NATO is being turned into a global organization. So, it is necessary � to turn other countries into our allies,� said Russian diplomat Yuli Vorontsov. And on a raft of major issues Russia and China are in agreement and opposed to the United States. Both have condemned the proposed U.S. national missile-defense system and ruled out accepting any changes to the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. Last month, the Russian and Chinese ambassadors to a U.N. conference on disarmament held in Geneva echoed each other�s positions, denouncing the proposed U.S. missile shield and darkly warning Washington to refrain from further testing. Both countries scorn the U.S. assertion that a missile-defense system would be protection against rogue states launching missiles at the U.S. mainland. They argue instead that the missile shield is designed to undermine them and to neutralize their nuclear arsenals. �To say such an expensive system is being developed to intercept Iranian or Iraqi missiles and to intercept possibly one or two North Korean missiles � it�s an argument for the na�ve or stupid. This system will be directed against Russia and against China,� insisted Russian Gen. Leonid Ivashov. The two countries now are coordinating their defense doctrines and staging joint military exercises. More than 2,000 Russian scientists are working in Chinese military-research institutions. A succession of top-level Chinese officials have visited Moscow since Boris Yeltsin stepped aside on New Year�s Eve. Within days of becoming Russia�s acting president, Putin met with Chinese Defense Minister Chi Haotian in Moscow, declaring at the start of the lengthy meeting that �an admirable foundation has been laid for the broadening of Russian-Chinese cooperation into the 21st century.� The Chinese have been no less fulsome, repeating regularly their eagerness to see an expansion in the good relations they enjoyed with Putin�s predecessor, Yeltsin. Moscow has been quick to support Beijing on Taiwan, with Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov recently cautioning Washington not to interfere militarily to protect Taiwan if China were forced to invade. Arguing that Taiwan is part of China, Ivanov said: �We are against any third-party interference � especially by the means of extending one�s military presence in the region.� Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan has returned the compliment, reaffirming support last month for Russia�s military campaign in separatist Chechnya, a rare nod of approval for a war that has been the target of a barrage of international criticism. Should the West be worried by this new Russian-Chinese chumminess? Clinton�s pliable U.S. ambassador to Beijing, Joseph Prueher, thinks not, and he dismisses as alarmist all talk of a major danger to the United States. The current friendliness between Moscow and Beijing is just a temporary alliance. �The Russians want cash; the Chinese want military equipment. It is a relationship of convenience,� he said recently in Washington. Indeed, Moscow is eager to revive its struggling arms industry, which has fallen on hard times since the breakup of the Soviet Union. In its aggressive drive to secure markets for its weapons systems, China has become one of Russia�s best customers, rivaled only by India. Last month, Russia delivered an $800 million Sovremennyi-class guided-missile destroyer to China, the latest addition of sophisticated Russian hardware to Beijing�s growing naval arsenal. Last year, Russia signed a contract to deliver several dozen Su-30 warplanes. More arms contracts are in the pipeline. Weapons aside, some analysts agree with Prueher that in the long run the Russian-Chinese alliance has within it the seeds of disagreement. A web of differing interests easily could ensnare both in antagonisms which quickly could exhaust their current need to cheer each other up in the face of U.S. dominance. Putin�s efforts to increase Russia�s leverage on the West by reactivating Soviet-era relationships with North Korea and Vietnam and in the Persian Gulf carry the risk of damaging Moscow�s ties with both Beijing and Tehran. �Moscow�s attempt to rewrite the geopolitical rules will not come easily,� the Texas-based private intelligence outfit Stratfor.com maintained in a recent report. �Iran, despite its past friendly relations with Russia, will react sharply against any new foreign presence in the Persian Gulf, and China will not take kindly to any Russian attempts to gain influence either in North Korea or Vietnam.� The nonpartisan Moscow-based Council for Foreign and Defense Policy is not so sure. In a document assessing future foreign policy, the think tank urged the Kremlin to give up �chasing the �great-power� phantom� and to forswear confrontation with �countries and regions exerting an impact on [Russia�s] economic development.� The think tank believes that the Kremlin still is wedded to an old mind-set � one that sees �greatness� in military, rather than economic, terms. It warned against trying to offset the United States by building �a multipolar world� with an alliance with China. <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/">www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance�not soap-boxing! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'�with its many half-truths, misdirections and outright frauds�is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. 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