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-----
Economic Politics


Seattle Comes to Washington


Socialist solidarity crumbles.

Will next week�s protests in the capital say anything revealing about
America�s attitude to globalisation?

WHAT a difference the possibility of a riot makes. The World Bank and the
International Monetary Fund have been holding their spring meetings in
Washington since 1975, causing little but polite interest. Yet no sooner had
the activists who disrupted the World Trade Organisation in Seattle last
winter announced their interest in this spring�s meeting than it became the
most fascinating event on the planet. An unprecedented 1,700 journalists have
registered for the meetings on April 16th-17th.

Protesters plan two big events. The hard-core lot will try to prevent the 750
delegates and their staff members from attending the joint meeting of the IMF
and the World Bank, something the police are determined not to allow. People
of a less combative disposition will gather on the Ellipse to listen to
speeches from assorted celebrities and enthusiasts.

These events will mark the culmination of weeks of smaller doings. Campuses
across the country have been putting on teach-ins about how to bring Seattle
to Washington. Churches have been holding prayer vigils �in solidarity with
the victims of the World Bank�. On April 9th thousands of people, braving icy
winds, formed a human chain around the Capitol to demand that the rich
nations show biblical forgiveness by cancelling billions of dollars in debt
owed by poor countries. On April 12th, thousands protested against China�s
accession to the WTO (as one watching schoolchild memorably observed: �Where
will we get our toys from if they won�t let us trade with China?�).

Almost every group with a grievance has its own special event. Steelworkers
held a candlelight vigil. Latinos protested about the links between a spate
of local evictions in Washington and �their connection to the World
Bank/IMF/WTO structural adjustment and global corporate expansion.� The Free
Burma Coalition held a dinner. The Green Party held a pot-luck supper.
Even more has been going on behind the scenes. The Ruckus Society and the
Direct Action Network are teaching civil disobedience. The Midnight Special
Law Collective provides 24-hour legal advice. The protesters have also
established a communal kitchen to feed thousands, medical clinics to care for
anyone who is injured, bicycle couriers to ferry food, supplies and
intelligence (�the revolution will not be motorised�), and workshops on giant
puppet making and street theatre. For their part, the police have spent $1m
on riot gear for the event, and studied how to prevent up to 5,000 people
from blocking Pennsylvania Avenue.

All this frantic activity raises two immediate questions: who are the
protesters, and what are they trying to say? The labour unions remain broadly
supportive: some 1,500 trade unionists turned up at the debt-relief protest,
and the AFL-CIO has belatedly endorsed the rally on the Ellipse. But the
unions will distance themselves from the protesters at the first sign of
broken windows.
The bulk of the protesters are not blue-collar types but students and what
used to be known as activists. The list of sponsoring organisations is a
Who�s Who of non-governmental organisations�from the fringe (the National
Queer Commission) to the obscure (the Nicaragua Network Peace and Social
Justice Centre of South Central Kansas) and the tediously predictable (the
Young Communist League).

This is all a little odd. Even globalisation�s defenders admit that the
process can be a cruel one, and many global institutions are distinctly
accident-prone. It is hardly surprising, for instance, that middle-aged South
Korean workers took to the streets of Seoul in 1998 wearing bandanas claiming
that IMF stood for �I�m Fired� after that institution appeared to force
several banks into closure. But the United States, currently in its ninth
year of economic expansion, has never been on the receiving end of IMF
policies. And Internet-savvy white American college kids are precisely the
sort of people who enjoy most of globalisation�s benefits.

Trying to work out what the protesters want gets harder the more teach-ins
you go to. Some groups want definite, if difficult, things such as debt
relief. Some want nebulous things like �global justice�. Some want to shackle
capitalism with tougher rules. Others want to get rid of global corporations
entirely.

The one thing the protesters all seem to agree upon is that the IMF and the
World Bank are flawed institutions. A fair point, but an odd one to make at a
time when the emerging economies are generally growing rapidly and when both
the IMF and particularly the World Bank are making some effort to be more
accountable. The Bank now involves non-governmental organisations in many of
its decisions and conducts an environmental audit of most of its policies.
The protesters seem split on what to do about this. Some would be happy if
the World Bank paid a little more attention to environmental concerns. Others
think the Bank is evil beyond salvation.

Many have jumped upon a somewhat melodramatic j�accuse essay by Joseph
Stiglitz in the current issue of the New Republic. (�I was chief economist at
the World Bank from 1996 until last November during the gravest global
economic crisis in a half-century. I saw how the IMF, in tandem with the
Treasury Department, responded. And I was appalled.�) But Mr Stiglitz�s
argument runs into trouble with the (for him) inconvenient recovery of the
economies concerned; and his remedies are a little complicated. No banners
have yet been spotted saying: �Monetary policy in South Korea was too tight.�

Interestingly, the woman often cited as the eminence grise behind the
anti-global forces in Seattle is playing a more subdued role in Washington.
Lori Wallach, the (surprisingly humorous) director of Public Citizen Global
Trade Watch, prefers to focus on the normalisation of trade with China, due
to be discussed in Congress in May, rather than on the Bretton Woods twins.

When people marched against the bomb or the Vietnam war, they could at least
claim to have a lot of other people applauding them. An even odder thing
about this bunch of demonstrators is that they seem to be out of step with
their country�s general sentiment about globalisation.
A recent study of polling data by the Programme on International Policy
Attitudes found that 61% of Americans favour moving ahead with globalisation,
and only 35% want to slow it down or reverse it (see chart 1). Almost 80% of
the respondents supported more international co-operation. There were
majorities in favour of strengthening the WTO and abiding by its decisions
even when these go against the United States. A plurality even favours
strengthening the IMF.

Does this mean that the protesters are doomed to irrelevance? Not
necessarily, for two reasons. The first is that, if you look behind the
numbers, it is clear that quite a lot of people have doubts about free trade.
Overwhelming majorities of Americans think that their trade negotiators pay
�too little� attention to �working Americans� (see chart 2). People generally
support attaching labour and environmental conditions to trade agreements.
They are particularly hostile to normalising trade with China. Polls taken
earlier this year found most Americans expressing some sympathy for the
protesters at Seattle.

The second reason is that the opponents of globalisation seem to feel more
strongly about the phenomenon than its supporters do. No congressman has paid
at the ballot box for being �anti-global�, whether it be voting against
paying UN dues or voting for subsidies for local producers. But last month
Matthew Martinez, a nine-term congressman from suburban Los Angeles, lost his
Democratic primary largely because the unions were furious about his support
for �fast-track� trade deals. Bill Clinton, who boldly pushed through NAFTA,
lost his nerve in Seattle last year. One reason he did so was to buttress
union support for Al Gore. That is not auspicious.

The current fracas is also yielding results. On April 10th, only three days
before a nationwide campaign against it was due to begin, Starbucks announced
that it would start selling �Fair Trade Certified Coffee�. Ms Wallach is
confident that the to-do in Washington will help to defeat the White House�s
attempts to normalise trade relations with China when the topic comes before
the House next month. That would scuttle this year�s most important trade
negotiation, just as the rumpus in Seattle put paid to a fresh round of
global trade talks.
The Economist, April 15-21, 2000
-----
Aloha, He'Ping,
Om, Shalom, Salaam.
Em Hotep, Peace Be,
All My Relations.
Omnia Bona Bonis,
Adieu, Adios, Aloha.
Amen.
Roads End

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