CJD DEATHS WILL RISE BY 30%: EXPERT
By Martin Hickman, Political Correspondent, PA News
Deaths from the human form of mad cow disease are expected to
increase by up to 30% over coming years, the head of a Government
panel of experts on the disease warned today.
Between two and four more people will probably die from new
variant CJD in addition to the 10 to 15 deaths currently
experienced each year, said Professor Peter Smith.
Prof Smith, acting head of the Spongiform Encephalopathy Advisory
Committee, said this was borne out by a "statistically
significant" increase in cases.
The disease could claim thousands of lives but he believed it was
now less likely that it would kill tens of thousands.
New variant CJD destroys the brains of its victims and is
believed to have been spread by beef from cattle infected with
mad cow disease, or BSE.
Prof Smith, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and
Tropical Medicine, said that until now the incidence of the
disease had remained "fairly constant".
He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "But there has been a
trend upwards and we have just seen analyses showing that that
trend upwards now is formally statistically significant and is
unlikely to be due to chance.
"The total number of cases so far that have been reported is 76.
We are currently observing between 10 and 15 deaths a year and we
think that the increase is of the order of 20-30% a year.
"So it means that around the next years or so we expect there to
be an extra two to four deaths a year compared to the number that
we have been observing."
Prof Smith said that it was important to get the epidemic into
"perspective" and that numbers affected were relatively small.
"We don't know how the epidemic is going to evolve over time," he
added.
However, the view that the epidemic might cause hundreds of
thousands of deaths was in his view "unlikely now".
He added: "I think we are likely to be dealing with much smaller
numbers than that.
"It's possible it won't be a very large epidemic, may involve
perhaps a hundred, several hundred cases, could run into the
thousands but I think - and this is a personal view - the
likelihood that it will run into tens or hundreds of thousands is
much more remote now than it was several years ago."
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