-Caveat Lector-

Paris, Saturday, October 21, 2000
Russia Set to Sign Strategic Deal to Supply Oil to West Europe
http://www.iht.com/IHT/TODAY/SAT/FPAGE/ruble.2.html

By William Drozdiak
Washington Post Service

BRUSSELS - It has long been regarded as one of the grand bargains of the
global energy game: In return for helping Russia develop its vast oil and
natural gas reserves, the heavily fuel-dependent economies of the European
Union would be able to ensure long-term supplies.
After decades of dashed hopes, the deal now seems close to completion. At
the end of this month, President Vladimir Putin will travel to Paris to sign
a series of energy contracts with EU leaders that should greatly escalate
the degree of mutual dependence linking the largest nation in terms of land
mass with one of the world's leading commercial powers. The new strategic
partnership, also to be signed by President Jacques Chirac of France and the
EU's executive president, Romano Prodi, promises major benefits for both
sides.

Russia hopes to lure billions of dollars in capital investments to improve
its dilapidated facilities for producing and exporting oil and gas. And
Europe foresees an opportunity to diversify fuel sources at a time of
soaring oil prices and turmoil in the Middle East.

''As the EU embarks on a process of enlargement that could expand its
membership to as many as 28 countries in the next few years, we need to make
sure there are no new walls built with our large neighbor to the east,'' Mr.
Prodi said in a recent interview. ''Our goal is to expand the zone of
stability to Russia itself, so that all of our citizens feel safer.''

Besides the economic advantage of securing reliable fuel supplies at steady
prices, EU officials believe the 20-year energy deal will serve as a
harbinger for greater political cooperation between Russia and Europe.

''The European Union is already a customer of Russia for its oil exports,''
said Mr. Prodi's spokesman, Jonathan Faull. ''We want to change the
commercial relationship into a long-term strategic partnership that will
help stabilize Russia, which is in the interests of all parties.''

The creation of an ''energy bridge'' between East and West has long been one
of Europe's most elusive geopolitical goals. In the early 1980s, Europe was
eager to fund construction of a pipeline with the Soviet Union that would
have greatly expanded natural gas exports to the West. But that Cold War
deal foundered over hostility from the United States, which warned its
European allies that the pipeline would create a precarious dependency that
could be exploited by Moscow for nefarious political aims.

This time, the visionary goal of pumping vast quantities of Russian oil, gas
and electricity into Western Europe is widely recognized as a healthy
political development that could establish a more equitable relationship
between Moscow and its most natural economic partners.

President Bill Clinton and Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder of Germany have been
among the project's most enthusiastic supporters, not least because they see
it as a useful way of purging Russia's debts and getting Moscow to
contribute to European security.

With North Sea oil supplies diminishing, Europe will soon be importing as
much as 85 percent of its energy supplies. Currently, Russia provides only
about 20 percent of Europe's natural gas needs and 16 percent of its oil
supplies, and EU officials say they hope the energy pact will soon lead to a
doubling of imports from Russia.

While the political obstacles may have vanished, the economic and logistical
hurdles remain formidable. Russia's harsh climate, rampant corruption and
chaotic political situation have deterred Western oil and gas companies from
making big investments to tap into the nation's enormous reserves. But the
new promise of EU incentives and government subsidies - coupled with the
allure of profits from soaring world energy price - have made exploitation
of Russia's resources more attractive than ever.

This week, the Russian gas giant Gazprom announced it was forming a new
consortium with leading gas companies from Germany, France and Italy to
build a $2 billion pipeline for gas exports that will bring an extra 60
billion cubic meters of natural gas supplies to the European Union every
year. The 600-kilometer (370-mile) project would involve two lines crossing
through Belarus, Poland and Slovakia.

The decision to bypass Ukraine, which would offer a more direct route to
Western markets, came after much criticism from Gazprom that Ukraine had
refused to pay nearly $2 billion in debts and was illegally siphoning off
gas destined for Western European customers.

President Leonid Kuchma dismissed the complaint as another example of
Russia's seeking to intimidate its neighbors.

Russia also plans to increase its electricity exports to the West. A former
prime minister, Anatoli Chubais, who now heads Russia's national power
company, said that several new contracts had been signed with Germany and
that fresh electricity supplies from Russian power plants have been flowing
there since August.

''We have proven that besides raw materials like oil and gas, we can
penetrate Western markets with our electricity, which is much more advanced
in terms of value added,'' Mr. Chubais said at a news conference in Moscow
last week. ''We are ready to show that the energy bridge to the West can
become much greater than most people realize.''

The biggest energy challenge, say Western analysts, may be rehabilitating
Russia's decaying oil industry. While Russia has the capacity to be the
world's largest oil producer at some 12 million barrels a day, its
facilities are so decrepit that much of its potential is squandered. The
country's pipelines are not able to export even one-fourth of that capacity-
current crude oil exports are running about 2.6 million barrels a day.

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