Thanks to everyone who submitted predictions! You'll find a representative sample of them at: http://www.wired.com/news/politics/0,1283,40906,00.html Below I've attached everything (I hope) I received by the deadline. -Declan --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 10:44:36 -0500 From: Jonathan Zittrain <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] I think the peering arrangements by which packets are neutrally passed from one private point to the next as they make their way from source to destination are up for grabs. We may see the beginnings of specialized information toll roads running parallel to the familiar Net we have now. Jon Zittrain Faculty Co-Director, Berkman Center for Internet & Society at Harvard Law School Assistant Professor of Law http://cyber.law.harvard.edu [EMAIL PROTECTED] --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 08:27:24 -0800 (PST) From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: Declan McCullagh <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> I believe the "open content" concept is going to enter the public consciousness more fully this year. Currently, the concept is understood by only a handful of people online; by the end of the year, "open content" could be nearly as much a common buzzword as "open source" is now. Lawrence M. Sanger, Ph.D. Editor-in-Chief Nupedia: The Open Content Encyclopedia http://www.nupedia.com/ --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 11:27:42 -0600 From: Robert Waldrop <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Predictions for 2001 This is the year we really begin to leave people behind for the wolves to devour. As energy prices continue to increase, this will wreak havoc in poor neighborhoods where there is little or no discretionary income. Requests for emergency assistance for utilities and food will continue to increase (1999 saw an increase of 32% in requests for food assistance from Catholic Charities), but supplies will continue to decline (there was a 52% decline in donations for food assistance over the past year). In October of 2001, the first group of welfare recipients will run up against the "five year lifetime limit" on assistance, generally there is no plan in place to help these people. Homelessness will increase, and the number of children and families among the homeless will increase. Robert Waldrop ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Archbishop Oscar Romero Catholic Worker House, Oklahoma City 1524 NW 21st, Oklahoma City, 73106 http://www.justpeace.org --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 10:52:28 -0500 From: Peter Wayner <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] 1) Brutal legal war over fair use. 2) Lots of handwringing over Microsoft now that George Bush's Justice Department is running the show. Do they drop the case? Can they take the political heat? 3) More extreme examples of Carnivore. FBI asks to intercept emails and decide whether to deliver them or not. 4) Debate over how much the web is dominated by a few players. -- -------------------------- Tune to http://www.wayner.org/books/ffa/ for information on my book on Free Software. --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 16:54:43 +0800 From: Jacob Palme <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Intelligent search engines, engines which gives me good value for money answers with just what I am searching for. More and more new pharmaceptical drugs giving much more value for much more money. Microsoft merges with Sony and Disney to provide the ultimate entertainment provider. Increasing use of telecommunications gets more people who live and work in rural areas. -- Jacob Palme <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> (Stockholm University and KTH) for more info see URL: http://www.dsv.su.se/jpalme/ --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 10:03:40 -0600 From: GriffJon <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] The new year (and millennium, for that matter) will have some interesting advances in network and data privacy. I predict that the govenrments will investigate a large-scale PKI for citizen identification (We've seen some movement with the ACES program). At the same time, I expect that quantum cryptography (and brute-forcing) will greatly advance by years-end, bringing new bitlengths into decryption reach for a few entities. Jon Camfield GriffJon.com --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 11:37:14 -0500 From: Mark Northern <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: PREDICTION Contribution "Convergence" will be the biggest buzzword for the year when we all expected at least some of our life to be a little bit like "Space Odyssey." As PC and server sales stagnate, real innovations in mobile broadband and PDA technology will take us closer to being continuously connected than ever. Something exponentially better than the current WAP and Bluetooth technology will emerge as the "best of breed" solution and revolutionize wireless communications. olution and revolutionize wireless communications. The "dot-com" shakeout will prove to be a good thing for the IT industry and the global economy. Everyone knew the "tech sector" was overvalued, but everyone watched the emperor parade by naked and kept playing the margins. Tech stocks carried the global economy for the better part of two years and finally yielded under the weight. Well-capitalized, well-managed industry leaders will mop up the mess, hire the best and brightest from among the casualties, and develop leading-edge technologies such as the "X" (executable) internet. _______________________________ Mark Northern Host "Hard Drive" -- WGOW-FM -- Chattanooga --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 08:25:19 -0800 From: Lizard <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] I foresee...slowdown, consolidation, new expansion! The lack of diffrentation between B2C web sites in the same category means There Can Be Only One. Failure of ad driven revenue models means the collapse of quasi-commercial 'fan' sites and a return to the Good Old Days! More censorship attempts! Especially by the UN and other 'global' agencies! Prepare to hear the phrase 'pedophiles and nazis, pedophiles and nazis' repeated so many times it makes you want to produce fascist kiddy porn out of sheer spite! More technology trumping the censors! Usenet will still be here! Apple will release a computer shaped like didecahedron, made of glow-in-the-dark transluscent green plastic! Search engines will still suck! Whiny luddites will have more to whine about as 'pharming' and stem-cell technologies take off, boosting biotech in general. Fortunately, since Luddites will refuse genetically-engineered life-extending drugs, stem-cell technologies take off, boosting biotech in general. Fortunately, since Luddites will refuse genetically-engineered life-extending drugs, we'll outlive them all! Coming in 2002...the entire cycles begins anew when breakthroughs in bandwidth and storage render the current information infrastructure obsolete, sparking new unsustainable business models and investor hype! My wife will stop finding my ineptitude with household chores 'cute' and just get mad at me! --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 11:45:17 -0500 From: "Halpert, Jim - DC" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "'[EMAIL PROTECTED]'" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> How's this . . . Ex-Senator John Ashcroft, confirmed by the Senate after a contentious nomination battle, pulls the plug on Carnivore and announces a major initiative to crack down on child porn and obscenity on the Internet. For more information about Piper Marbury Rudnick & Wolfe, please visit us at http://www.piperrudnick.com/ ________________________________________________________ --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 11:53:30 -0500 From: Randy May <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "'[EMAIL PROTECTED]'" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Declan--Prediction below: "I predict that, as emotions cool in the New Year, the majority of Americans will come to accept the Supreme Court's decision effectively deciding the presidential contest. This is because, even though ordinary Americans do not speak the language of lawyers, they understand intuitively that what courts do best in our constitutional culture is ensure adherence to the notions of fair process and equal treatment that are at the heart of the Bush v. Gore decision." Randolph J. May Senior Fellow The Progress & Freedom Foundation 1301 K Street, NW Suite 550 East Washington, DC 20005 Tel. 202-289-8928 Fax.202-289-6079 e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 12:00:55 -0500 From: Cullen M <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: predictions for 2001 1. OS/Browser wars start all over again as an upstart company releases the first 3VT (3-dimensional virtual desktop), a combination of first-person shooter GUI, object oriented construction (both code and visually) and peer-to-peer network flie sharing, with flat-screen emulation for back-wards compatibility. This (gag) paradigm shift is a huge rage with the video-game oriented youth segment and threatens to dump both apple and microsoft overnight. Linux, of course, has a stable kernel released within 48 hours. (if anyone reading this wants to fund me, I'll do this myself. Heh.) 2. U.S. Congress passes even more silly censorship and copyright laws which have a contradictory effect: laws intended to censor and protect copyright remain unenforceable against the vast majority of individuals, while corporations and businesses become fat targets for infringement lawsuits. The UCLA laughs itself silly. 3. SEALAND or other quasi-independent nation opens first stable, secure datahaven/digital currency. Governments around the world react with Fear and Loathing to the first de-facto international currency/exchange model. 4. U.S. continues to become more conservative. Initial trials for anti-aging gene therapy are announced. First cloned human (probably already several years old) is revealed to the world, amid public outcry. --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 11:53:10 -0500 From: Mark Plotkin <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: 2001 Predictions The death of the Wild, Wild West of the Internet I predict that in 2001 people will stop thinking of the Internet as the equivalent of the Wild, Wild West and will begin to accept its transformation into a highly regulated "space." --------------------------------------------------- Mark J. Plotkin, Esq. Technology Practice Group Morris, Manning & Martin, L.L.P. [EMAIL PROTECTED] --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 12:14:19 -0500 From: Haltron <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: MY 2001 PREDICTIONS Parts/Attachments: MY PREDICTIONS FOR 2001 1) Global market to experience convulsion. 2) U.S. dollar to weaken. Many foreigners holding U.S. Dollars will bail-out. 3) U.S. economy to be weakened by high energy prices. 4) Some pension funds will be hit hard. 5) Thousands of Independent Truckers to be forced into bankruptcy by high fuel prices. 6) Banks to be hit hard by bad loans. 7) Power availability crisis looming in CA. 8) Price of coal will rise. 9) New home starts will drop-off dramatically. 10) Personal bankruptcies likely to increase. 11) Incidents of domestic violence increase. 12) For many investors, the name 'dot.coms' will invoke profane outburst. 13) EU to desperately seek internal harmony. 14) Russia & China become more agressive. 15) Taiwan to seek protection from China. 16) Israel to move into South Lebanon in an effort to thwart more terrorism. 17) Bush will be hounded continually by the liberal media. 18) Democrats in the Congress will make noise about the election results to posture for the 2002 elections. 19) Ashcroft will be confirmed 20) UN to be more assertive by require member nations to support its agenda. Hal TN --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 18:17:34 +0100 From: philipp <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Prediction Just my 2001 cents: Mobile computing will be everywhere (no pun intended) but the interesting thing to watch spread will be "things that think" - and act. Think of objects as customers, clients, friends and family. On a slightly sentimental (it's that time between christmas and new years) note, I believe that 2001 big business will shove self-regulation, free-speech and the like down our throat. --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 12:23:30 -0600 From: Richard Thieme <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] The Evidence for UFO Phenomena When Clyde Tombaugh discovered the Planet Pluto, he announced the coordinates of its orbit. Astronomers around the world retrieved old photographs and - sure enough, there was Pluto, right in front of their faces. But nobody had seen it because they didn't know where to look. The same is true of the aggregated data for multiple realities behind UFO phenomena. The evidence hides in plain sight, but we don't see it because we don't know where to look. 2001 will be a "tipping point." The aggregated data will resolve into clearer patterns and we will see what is right in front of our faces. Richard Thieme ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) speaks and writes about the human dimensions of technology and work, spirituality, and "life on the edge." --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 11:26:39 -0600 From: Leon A. Kappelman <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: Declan McCullagh <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Our future is largely a function of our past, our present, and our choices. It might be simpler if the "gods" were in control, but we largely determine our own destiny. And technology, much like all our other tools, has only a potentiality for good or evil. The possibilities are nearly limitless, in either direction. But our fate will literally be decided between our ears. It is not our technological artifacts, but the ways we choose to use them that will determine our future. May we each and every one of us choose wisely. Leon A. Kappelman, Ph.D. Director, Information Systems Research Center College of Business, University of North Texas <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 09:32:51 -0800 From: Stan Emert <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "'[EMAIL PROTECTED]'" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: Wired News prediction Wearable computing will begin to mature into assistive computing as functionality becomes key. Software advances (i.e., from Tangis Corporation) will force hardware OEMs to develop smaller, more powerful units as people demand the new benefits assistive (wearable) computing software can bring. They year 2001 will be the beginning of using computers to assist us, rather than to just create documents. We will be able to protect our privacy better; we will be connected easier; we will work more efficiently with this new software. The shift will start first in the mobile workforce and then spread to the general population. Stan Emert Tangis Corporation 1848 Westlake Avenue North Seattle, WA 98109 206-464-6214 x 127 206-464-7213 (fax) www.tangis.com Tangis . . . creating software to make wearables work. ps. Declan-thanks for offering this. -- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 15:25:06 -0500 From: "Stiennon,Richard" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "'[EMAIL PROTECTED]'" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: Prediction of cyber terrorism The internet has seen several waves of adoption. Tech companies led the way. Communication companies followed in their path. Manufacturers, insurers, and banks are finally getting into it. Terrorists and criminal elements are the last to get wired. As organizations get online their security measures tend to lag their e-business ventures but they get pretty good grades over-all. Governments and Universities, however, are woefully unprotected. In 2001 we will see cyber-terrorism and cyber-criminals exploit the gaping holes in these institutional networks. The cyber terrorists will destroy computer resources and shut down networks. The criminals will pilfer information and resources and shut down networks. The criminals will pilfer information and use stolen identities to accumulate huge amounts of money. Not a melt down, just the first shots fired in the new info-wars. Richard Stiennon Research Director, Network Security Gartner --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 09:52:04 -0800 From: Jim Warren <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] 2001 will be an Earth Odyssey combining Hal with Big Brother. * Bush and Attorney General Ashcroft will honor their debt to Microsoft, for it's prepaid purchase of legal assistance, by settling the massive anti-trust findings against the operating system monopoly with some trivial, look-good slap on the wrist. * Bush and right-wing ideologue extremist Ashcroft will make pervasive use of the FBI's mass email-snooping software, Carnivore, developed by the Clinton administration, to conduct massive, warrantless surveillance seeking all "feelthy" content on the net, conduct selective high-profile prosecutions, especially of well-known liberals, and generally seek to impose proper Christian fundamentalist censorship on net content. * They will also use Carnivore, the IRS, and other government surveillance and courtless punishment tools to spy on and attack their political opponents, but that's been customary for generations, as well-documented in Congress' Church Committee hearings, decades ago. * Impacting everyone, Bush and the Republicans will finish selling out the public and consumer well-being to the omnipotent control of the multi-national conglomerates that already own most intellectual property, telecommunications, dinosaur-based energy, and the mainstream media and news sources on which we foolishly base our participation in the process of our own governance. Jim Warren, senior columnist, MICROTIMES --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 15:14:09 -0300 From: "Abraham [iso-8859-1] Santibaqez" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] 2001 will be the e-governement year in Chile. Studies.indicate that this south american country is bound to be a pioneer country not only in Latin America but in the world in this area. In the last local (municipal) election 254 chileans living abroad sent their preferences via e-mail. It had no legal effect, but demonstrated that it can be done and that there are people interested in expressing this way their preference. Eugenio Tironi, a sociologist, a former government officer and business adviser, believes that 2001 will be the e-government year and that Chile can become ^San experimental field in electronic government^T. He remembers -in a recent article publishet by El Mercurio- that the Internal Revenue Service is leading the efforts in this area and that the Chilean President Ricardo Lagos gave a vigorous impulse to cyber-development during his recent trip to Silicon Valley and Redmond where he met Bill Gates and other industry leaders. Abraham Santibanez Universiodad Diego Portales Santiago Chile -- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 13:34:35 -0500 From: "Shira, Chris" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "'[EMAIL PROTECTED]'" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> The Entrance and Dropout of E-Eductaion The year 2001 will bring to prominence, and subsequent wash-out, of Web-based education systems. While these systems and sites have been in existence for some time, they are not well known to the general public. A deluge of print, radio, and PBS program sponsorships can be expected to raise the public profile of distance education in Q1 of 2001. As consumers become familiar with distance education, the lack of significant content available on many of these systems will become apparent. Those sites that do feature significant content, such as traditional textbook publishers, will surely dominate the market. The additional burdens imposed by COPPA (Children's Online Privacy Protection Act) will further alienate potential consumers as education providers are forced to employ complicated and inconvenient schemes to remain COPPA compliant. Finally, Q4 will bring about the beginning of the e-education dropout. While established players will remain viable, many newcomers will see their revenue streams dry up as they face increased competition from established textbook publishers and other content-oriented media outlets. Chris Shira Distance Education Professional [EMAIL PROTECTED] --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 10:53:39 -0800 From: Lisa Davis <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "'[EMAIL PROTECTED]'" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Here's my prediction for the year 2001: Growing public concern about radio-frequency radiation will create a demand for wireless headsets for cell phones. This will add fuel to a general trend toward hands-free voice control of consumer technology. Lisa Louise Davis Usability Specialist Tangis Corporation http://www.tangis.com --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 10:52:55 -0800 From: "James, Kevin P (IT)" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "'[EMAIL PROTECTED]'" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Declan, Hi. Here's My contribution, hope this is usefull.. approx 118 words. By Kevin James [EMAIL PROTECTED] Silicon Valley will become still more expensive to live and work and the daily commute will continue to grow worse. There will be power outages over the summer as too many people are crammed into the area. This will cause companies / personnel to leave the area for somewhere cheaper / more reliable and so I predict a movement away from 'the valley' to other areas of the USA. The market for IT personnel worldwide will continue to grow. More people will leave the USA ( or other countries ) and sample life overseas. This may eventually have as great an effect on the US culture as returning servicemen from world war 2 did. ( but not in the short term, it will take years ). --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 14:00:45 -0500 From: Danny Yavuzkurt <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Predictions for 2001.. As for predictions for 2001, I think it's fairly safe to predict that computers will make a few unexpectedly quick jumps in speed and usability.. for one, AMD is currently still in the process of testing and refining their use of supersilicon (isotopically pure Si-28 crystal) for much cooler chips - I believe the article I read stated that supersilicon has 60% greater heat dissipation than regular, which should make their new chips faster and cooler than previously thought possible, giving us a couple of new rungs on the speed ladder without having to resort to watercooled systems or ultratiny fab procedures - for now. I think by the end of the year we'll see 4Ghz chips in the highest-end PCs, definitely by AMD, possibly by Intel too, if they get their act together and stop releasing buggy opcodes. Another tech prediction: One of the videogame giants is going to bite the dust, and it ain't Sony. Or Nintendo. And I don't think it'll be Microsoft, either - well, by this time next year it could be 'Microsoft Games', with 'Microsoft Windows' being a separate company, if they can't win on appeal and Dubya doesn't let them off the hook. But I think, barring some miracle product release that kills Xbox and PS2, we're going to see the end of Sega, unfortunately for Sonic fans everywhere (including my 12-year old brother). Already it's been unofficially leaked that they're in talks with Nintendo, and it looks bad for Sony. Even if it's just a rumor, as their presidents say, Sega's still hurting, and has been for a long time. They lost, what, 300 mill this year? They're out of the loop, way out. Their Dreamcast games are based on a proprietary GD-ROM format, for one, not a standard like DVD, and the Dreamcast system can't do anything *but* play games - and Sony and Nintendo have deadlocks on most of the really big franchises, like Zelda and Final Fantasy. Good luck, Sega. On the medical front, I predict that, in this coming year, we'll see the advent of some truly amazing new gene therapy technologies - perhaps a real silver bullet against cancer, perhaps a cure for inherited diabetes - we're going to see an explosion of innovation in the biotech field with the release of the human genetic code. We may also see the first real stirrings of genetic discrimination, perhaps sneaking in first with insurance premiums.. it's still too early for a Gattaca-like situation to start, but you never know - especially with the FBI pushing for more wiretap power, if they get that, soon they'll be pushing for universal DNA scanning and databasing - both of which were pretty much unthinkable before, but may be possible under a Bush administration, although Dubya's actions on privacy and freedom remain to be seen.. As for Napster? Sadly, Napster is living on borrowed time. It's got the advantage of having 40 million freedom-loving, RIAA-hating users, including myself, but then again, it's going up agains some of the best-paid lawyers in the world, it's already been ordered to shut down, and is only operating pending appeals, it's already told its users to expect a fee-based system sometime in the near future, per its 'alliance' (read: sheltering behind) Bertelsmann/BMG.. I give it another couple of months, then a shutdown and fee-based system starting around Valentine's Day. Either that, or if their spirits are just broken by some more vicious court rulings, it's possible the leaders will just give up in disgust and leave like rats from a sinking ship, and Napster may just fade out and disappear like Scour did. Whatever happens, I don't think we'll be seeing the kind of easy, transparent, widespread sharing Napster gave us - unfortunately for the average user, and unfortunately for the freedom of US citizens from onerous copyright laws. As for Microsoft, I think Whistler (Beta 1 of which I'm using right now) will be delayed, again and again, similarly to Win98 and Win2K. A lot of the features Beta 1 has look pretty sketchy and not fully-fleshed-out. However, it *does* work remarkably well already, and will be a very nice OS when it does come out. They've already removed the 'Windows 2001' moniker from it as a 'misprint' on a conference pamphlet.. so we're looking at a possible 2002 release. And as for tech economy? Look for it to slow slightly, but still, nothing near a recession will occur.. new chip releases, and better games and software (read: more CPU and RAM-intensive games and software, that is..), will drive the consuming frenzy into yet another year of mindless greed and acquisition. Hurrah for capitalism! Anyway, those are my little predictions for 2001. Ah, yes, one final prediction: The Lord of The Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring will be the highest-grossing picture of 2001, if not of all time. The Two Towers, in 2002, will do nearly as well, but not quite. The Return of the King, in 2003, should bring out legions of fans unheard of since.. well, since ever. The movies will be so highly sought-after and hotly anticipated that somehow, someone will get the scripts - or perhaps even copies of the films themselves - on the Net before release, most likely in 3iVX or ProjectMayo format. A huge brouhaha will result, and when the person responsible is caught - if he/she is - he'll be hung out to dry, as the most despised copyright breaker of all time. But that's just my view. ;) Hope this makes it in in time for the article! You can use my name, email, anything you like. Thanks for giving me the opportunity to write a little something and email ya. Keep up the great work, Declan. The world needs more reporters as skilled as you. -Danny --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 11:00:11 -0800 From: Rodney Thayer <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Here's my thoughts. It's 266 words, I assume you can use it/prune it as relevant and/or appropriate. My current affiliation is: "Rodney Thayer, a network security consultant ([EMAIL PROTECTED])" --- What I see for 2001. I'm looking ahead at the area of network security. First of all, I don't see any reason that, as a general rule, people will become more interested in security. Short passwords, postit notes with passwords stuck to terminals, use of your mother's phone number for your ATM PIN, will all continue to be popular. Internet sites will continue to accept and send clear-text sensitive information such as social security numbers. What I do think will change is that some parts of the commericial world will decided that security is worth doing, for business reasons. So, for example, I think we'll finally have enough stolen credit card numbers that Visa and the other credit card issuers, including the banks and maybe the government, will start to assert that more serious security is needed. As far as technology goes, I think there will be a gentle upsurge in the use of public key cryptography, because of the RSA patent expiration. I think that will have a subtle effect on products, when combined with relaxed export regulations. It's now easier to include security (and get the credit/feature benefit) rather than avoid it because of licensing and export hassles. I think this will mean that things like digital signitatures within XML and other web technologies will be deployed in the real world. Also, the amount of hardware and power needed to operate secure devices is now at the level where simple appliances can be made secure this coming year I think we really could build "IPsec in a Garage Door Opener". --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 13:23:30 -0600 From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] I expect that the biggest and most recurring news story during the year 2001 will be the continuing increasingly damaging revelations about the theft of the presidential elections, and the numerous outrageous frauds that were committed to appoint (and not elect) George W. Bush to the White House. I expect to see several books on the Theft of the White House come out during the year, and I'm sure that two or three of those will be blockbusters. I expect that the illegitimacy of his squat will dog Bush throughout his entire term of office. (Which even could, as a result of mounting public outrage, be prematurely ended... whether by resignation, assassination attempt, or some other reason). Gordon Peterson http://personal.terabites.com/ --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 11:09:28 -0800 From: Jeff Ubois <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "'[EMAIL PROTECTED]'" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: predictions for 2001 Declan, Three predictions for the year ahead: - The number of active weblogs (blogs) will increase by at least a factor of ten, and blogging will become very popular among a much bigger fraction of the online public. There will be a wave of press coverage, corporations will incorporate blogs into their sites, and tools from www.blogger.com (Pyra), www.pitas.com, www.editthispage.com will improve dramatically (especially the search and navigation functions.) - Privacy services provided by corporations, such as those described in Senate Judiciary Committee's Know the Rules Use the Tools booklet <http://judiciary.senate.gov/privacy.pdf>, will become economically viable, and widely used. There will be a consolidation of the smaller privacy companies into one or more larger firms that offer more comprehensive services. - The need for transient forms of electronic mail and other data will become more apparent as a result of copyright owners' desire to control their intellectual property, corporate needs to limit the lifetime of old email, and the desire by individuals to prevent the kind of embarrassing fiasco Claire Swire just experienced. Jeff Ubois, Disappearing Inc. (if you need a title for me, you can use "co-founder," but if you can skip the title, that's better) --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 13:19:56 -0600 From: Nathan Wilcox <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] In 2001 we^Rll see the following: 7 Venture capitalists and the hucksters who fleeced them will stay away from politics for a while; 7 Steve Forbes^R Internet consultants will be busy spending their money well into the 4th quarter of 2001; 7 Anyone waiting for broadband to make the Net a big factor in politics will be still waiting on 12/31/01 ntial to grassroots organizing and will empower smart-asses and gadflies; 7 Bush will attempt to use the Net to take the Clintonian ^SPerpetual Campaign^T to the next level; 7 His many opponents will have the same idea; 7 John McCain will use his email database to push for campaign finance reform. Nathan Wilcox Online Campaign Manager Public Strategies, Inc. --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 14:25:02 -0500 From: Lawrence Hecht <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Cc: IPPN <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> OK, I am fairly confident about this prediction: The Federal Government will embrace web streaming as a way to "open government." Congress will stream live audio broadcast of all committee hearings on the Web. Telecommunications lobbyists will support the infrastructure costs needed to provide quality video streaming of government activities because it will generate new demand for broadband. By year's end, advocacy groups will be actively demanding huge new expenditures to put public broadcasting's video content online. Lawrence Hecht Internet Public Policy Network 919 18th Street, NW, 10th Floor Washington, DC 20006 [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://internetpublicpolicy.com vox: 202.263.2932 fax: 202.263.2962 The Internet Public Policy Network (IPPN) is a network of Internet policy experts that provide content and services dealing with telecommunications, electronic commerce, and community technology issues. --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 13:41:23 -0600 From: B <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: predictions for 2001 2001 is going to be the year that consumers finally break out of their zombielike state and realize the real dangers that are presented by the existing and expanding federal laws regarding encryption, wiretapping, and "consumer protection". The idea of Big Brother is finally becoming a reality, and it becomes more obvious every day. The battle for privacy began long ago, but it will reach the masses this year. My prediction is that foolish policies by the Bush government will be presented, and torn apart by mainstream media once those in the media truly understand the threat of an all-knowing federal police agency. The people of the United States have had their rights whittled away under the auspices of the drug war, the cold war, international terrorism, domestic terrorism, and even "consumer rights". Sooner or later, there will be a backlash - and I think it starts now. --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 12:53:13 -0700 From: azreporter.com <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Declan, Here is my contribution to your annual predictions story: You know I'd like to say 2001 will be the year dotcoms make a comeback, but I think there is still a continuing shake-out of the major high-publicized dotcoms to come. I do believe Amazon.com will continue to survive. If not strongly, it will still be able to hold off Wal-Mart for leadership in the e-tailer sector. However, I think we will say good-bye to etoys.com this year. But since our site, azreporter.com, focuses on web launches and other web-related happenings, I still see a busy year ahead for the Internet. There are plenty of ideas still left to bring to the Internet forefront and I do not see a death of web site launches in the year 2001. Our affiliation: Arizona Reporter, http://www.azreporter.com james good - president and publisher a r i z o n a r e p o r t e r o n t h e i n t e r n e t "daily web information for the daily web surfer" Web Site: http://www.azreporter.com E-Mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Have You Linked Today? Link to Arizona Reporter Contest http://www.azreporte --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 11:44:21 -0800 From: Don Marti <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: Declan McCullagh <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Don Marti Technical Editor, Linux Journal [EMAIL PROTECTED] The US Patent and Trademark Office is entering 2001 in crisis. USPTO is losing budget and laying off patent examiners at the same time that it is facing a torrent of new software patent applications. Even agency's director warned of an imminent "reduction in patent quality" in a letter to Congress. Expect to start signing away your right to sue for patent infringement in order to do business -- it'll be the only way that companies can defend themselves against the tide of bogus software patents. -- Don Marti "I've never sent or received a GIF in my life." [EMAIL PROTECTED] -- Bruce Schneier, Secrets and Lies, p. 246. http://zgp.org/~dmarti/ (Free the Web: http://burnallgifs.org/) --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 14:51:14 -0500 From: Robert Guerra <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Predictions for year 2001: Area/Field : Privacy / Canada Canada's new federal privacy legislation (Bill C6 - Personal Information Protection and Electronic Documents Act) which takes effect Jan 1/ 2001 will serve as a privacy wake up call. Predictions: - AirMiles Program will again leak confidencial information..this time incurring the wrath of the law. - Privacy legislation by all provinces, leading to a vast improvement in privacy protection. - Law enforcement will try to undernmine legislation by attempting to obtain special powers for themselves. This will lead to a supreme court case which will rule in favor of privacy protection. - Topic of Abroginal privacy rights will start to be discussed in the mainstreamm press. Several sections of the Indian Act will be found to conflict with privacy law... Area: Medical Privacy The passage of the HIPPA final regulations and similiar legislation elsewhere will push healthcare providers to move towards Electronic Patient Chart systems. As a result (in no order): - Several mergers will occur in the field - Several Palm/Handheld Patient chart systems will be announced...consequently leading one to stolen...leading to major health privacy breech real soon now.. - More Hospitals will be hacked-into, detailed medical records will be leaked - Chief Privacy Officers will finally start appearing at Health Care providers - Consequently, medical and Information privacy programs will start poping-up at several ivy league colleges. General: The crisis and havoc which was fortold to occur at the new millenium will occur this year..on time, as predicted.. - Major losses for Telefonica SA in south america due to stock market downturn. They will re-organize some of thier holdings. - outbreak of violence in the world will increase. - MIR space station will come down unpredictably...causing major loss of life. - I'm not sure why...but political bombing or assasination attempt will occur in USA (do feel free to edit -) as required) well, that's all the time I have right now.. regards, Robert Robert Guerra Director, CryptoRights Foundation http://www.cryptorights.org --- Amazon.com will either accept e-gold (and other currencies that may come along, such as possibly Hettinga's Ibucs?) or be in bankruptcy by the first of next year. They're in the red, and we could save them if they ever noticed, but they might not, and www.bananagold.com isn't enough for me. Silly of them to ignore us, but they aren't the first. :^) I predict the government will spend more on censorware, despite how ineffective it gets. I think that politicians will try harder than ever to both censor the internet and limit the use of anonymity and encryption. It won't work. You can say this is from [EMAIL PROTECTED] but I'd prefer not to see my name/initials. Thx. --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 14:52:44 -0500 From: Ted Cormaney <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Politics The Senate will shift to outright Democratic control before the 4th of July. Federal and State Governments will try to find jobs for those washed out of the dot.coms by funding innovative economic development projects in e-gov, CRM and e-biz to mention a few. Bush Adm will try to overhaul US patent system, make a few cosmetic changes and the PTO will continue the choke off innovation until the Courts rein it in. Voting reform will get a few hearings and be forgotten when Congress hears what the bill is, $2 billion for openers. Campaign finance reform will get a few more votes in Congress in the sure knowledge that the Bush White House will veto anything like McCain-Finegold. NMCI will get cut back even further by Congress as the horror stories continue to roll in. Al Gore will get a big investment to form a company to pipe Global Warming into the homes of the poor and the elderly. Ted Cormaney Ontological Investigator --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 14:51:59 -0600 From: Jimmy Wales <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: Declan McCullagh <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> I predict that during 2001, we will see the beginnings of an open source revolution in _content_, similar to, and for the same reasons as, what we have seen in software. The net is enabling new forms of collaboration, but it doesn't happen overnight because the mechanisms are both technological _and_ social. Workers interested in similar projects have to find each other, and social structures have to evolve. That's happening in the open content movement, and we'll start seeing some real results in 2001. This should frighten Britannica, WebMD, etc. --Jimmy Wales Nupedia.Com (the affiliation is related to open content, see link below) ************************************************* * http://www.nupedia.com/ * * The Ever Expanding Open Source Encyclopedia * ************************************************* --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 15:00:02 EST From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: 2001 >From Vicki Lockard editor "Canku Ota" (Many Paths) http://www.turtletrack.org As I contemplate the upcoming year, I must look back at what we've accomplished in the year 2000. Our first issue of "Canku Ota" came online on January 8. Since then, we've had visitors from all over the world, had a write-up on the Digital Divide, joined forces with KidLink, and recently were named by NetMom as one of the top sites of the year. Our goals for the upcoming year are to reach more Tribal Schools. Because our focus is Native America, it's important to us that we reach the intended audience. We want our Indian children to know that they are not alone...that our People follow many paths. If, we can educate others to the realities of Native life, we have exceeded our goals. I suppose we would also like to get funding for our project. Now, we run the site from our home, and have minimal expenses. But, we see a need to attend some of the Native educational functions, around the country. To do this, requires money! Mostly, I just want to see us continuing in the vein that we're going now. The rewards for us come with the thank yous...nothing else can top that!!! Vicki Lockard --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 11:59:06 -0800 From: Doran <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: Declan McCullagh <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> -IBM will buy Microsoft -Filtering software will be mandated in public buildings -A DNA sample will become a regular requirement for employment Doran... Digital Village Radio --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 15:24:49 -0500 From: Wayne Crews <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: Declan McCullagh <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: predictions article Hi Declan hope you enjoyed your vacation. Saw your note about the predictions article, here's a note re: some things I'm working on in my new slot here at Cato. Basically, the prediction is One Internet is not enough. Wayne Crews Director of Technology Studies Cato Institute The ^Scommon property^T Internet needs borders beyond which users can escape damaging political resolutions of regulatory disputes such as those over privacy, free speech, filtering, bot penetration and security. While it will take some time, there will be an increasing realization that one Internet is not enough, because there is little chance of satisfying conflicting regulatory demands increasingly heaped upon the commons. Moreover, while people crave connection, not everyone wants or needs to be connected to everyone else. Increasingly divisive issues of Internet etiquette, conduct, values, access and participation that some propose to ^Ssolve^T by regulation can also be solved by physically separate networks, or a ^SSplinternet.^T If an online superhighway is to remain most advantageous for both the exhibitionists and the would-be gated community inhabitants, or the Amazons and the commerce-free Internet advocates, then fences are going to have to go up. More fundamental than issues of regulation or etiquette is the simple fact that, on a ^Scommon property^T Internet, despite assurances from tech entrepreneurs, no one, government or business, stands in a position to certify privacy or security guarantees. Sevices once thought to provide anonymity turn out not to, like Napster or FreeNet. That too points to a need for networks that are owned, and capable of providing greater assurances to customers regarding contractual terms and relationships. Providers and participants will have agreed to abide by certain ground rules, while others can be excluded, something difficult to do on the Internet. For example, banks, insurance companies and hospitals could lead a consortium to team up with data hotel companies and an EarthLink to provide a secure network promising 100% privacy. Or, an owned network devoted to peer-to-peer sharing could turn the tables by banning EMusic^Rs Napster-sniffing Web bots. It may be increasingly unproductive to insist that all the uses to which the Internet is put (gaming, streaming video, secure commerce, non-profit reference services, porn, etc.) should co-exist on one network. It may make sense ultimately to surf tailored networks the way we now surf Web pages within a network. In a way that^Rs a step back to the past, but in another sense it mirrors the mass customization taking place in the broader economy. But what is important now is underlying Internet technologies, not necessarily the Internet as it happens to exist today. Perhaps we need not pronounce the word ^SInternet^T with a capital ^SI^T and a reverent tremble. Note however that some laws, like encryption policies or potential e-commerce taxes will apply to any network, and can^Rt really be addressed by splintering. Wayne Crews --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 15:32:56 -0500 From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Predictions for 2001: 1) There will be dumber television and more of it... The grassroots, nonpartisan rebellion against the gross invasion of privacy by current "two-way television" will expand significantly across the UK and in Europe. The United States news media will most likely ignore or bury news of that battle. For the moment, it will remain almost entirely unknown here..... 2) There will be continued consolidation of corporate dominance and state surveillance of the WWW. The myth of the Web as an "unlimited" and intrinsically "free" medium will continue to crumble under the combined weight of money, state and corporate reorganizations, seduction and an ocean of white noise.... Ten million monkeys typing on ten million web-linked typewriters will fail to produce the great works of Shakespeare -- again. 3) Dozens of flashy "technology-is-god" magazines will fail as the economy slips in the United States and other wired countries. As it happens, Argentina happens to be on the block at the moment. 4) One or more of the Top-10 public relations firms will purchase major shares of South Africa-based partnerships that lease paramilitary mercenaries for low intensity wars. The integrated corporations will discretely cross-market themselves as "full service" crisis management specialists. (ps: I welcome reasonable editing. However, to ensure my point is not misunderstood, please let me see any edited copy of mine prior to publication. Thanks. ) Regards, Christopher Simpson School of Communication American University Washington DC --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 22:37:26 +0200 From: Robert Ryan-Silva <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] 2001 will be the year that the developing world starts to feel the market-distorting effects the Internet has wreaked on the West the last five years or so. Whether it will help or hurt remains to be seen. - Rob --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 21:45:10 +0100 From: Yves Thiran <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] The Creative "Compilator" - an upgraded JukeBox, 60 Gigs miniature Hd, 2000 CD, all the music you could possibly wish, a Virgin Megastore in your hand w/FireWire Connection for speedy classroom download - will be 2001's big hit. And a big consolation for Napster, after the lost trials. Technology stronger than pettiness : happy new year. Yves Thiran Journalist, Brussels --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 12:02:41 -0800 From: Stephen Lawton <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Reply-To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Declan: Here is my prediction. Three versions of increasing length. First one should fit. ________________________________ Stephen Lawton Chairman, Planning Commission City of Hercules mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] home office: 510.724.8225 mobile: 510.589.7085 home fax: 510.741.9933 mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] http://steve.lawton.net -------------------------- <95 words follow> Space Matters Again: Revenge of the Real Estate Nerds "Bricks and mortar" is no longer a term of derision. Having control over your infrastructure is now a critical success factor. And so, Internet-driven firms are in turn driving innovation in the business of place-making. Commercial real estate will enter the auction market, with the market owned by the big technology vendors. Programmers' cubes, engineers' labs, server farms, sales offices -- spaces will be commodified and traded like pork bellies among the New Economy firms that generate demand-spikes on tempos that outpace leasing or construction cycles. -------------------------- <156 words follow> Space Matters Again: Revenge of the Real Estate Nerds "Bricks and mortar" is no longer a term of derision. Having control over your infrastructure is now a critical success factor. And so, Internet-driven firms are in turn driving innovation in the business of place-making. Commercial real estate will enter the auction market, with the market owned by the big technology vendors. Programmers' cubes, engineers' labs, server farms, sales offices -- spaces will be commodified and traded like pork bellies among the New Economy firms that generate demand-spikes on tempos that outpace leasing or construction cycles. Laptopped- and cell-phoned knowledge workers will dock into this month's project space, then disperse to new cubes with new coworkers after the launch. The cube farm itself -- actually, the future right to occupy -- will be placed on a regional e-Market. Smaller firms will struggle to break free of the grip of commercial real-estate brokerages, by building low-cost public exchanges. --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 03:56:52 -0500 From: Christopher D. Hunter <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Prediction: Cyberporn Panic in '01 Hey Declan, Here's my prediction for wired. Chris ________________________ Cyberporn Panic in '01 In the upcoming year we are likely to see the age-old cyberporn debate heat up once again. Congressional passage of the Childrens Internet Protection Act, which will require all public schools and libraries receiving federal funds for Internet access to install some form of content filtering software (such as CyberPatrol), will spark an intense public and legal debate about how to protect children from the "scourge" of Internet pornography, hate speech, etc. Already, the ACLU has promised to challenge the new law as an unconstitutional abridgment of the First Amendment. The ushering in of the Republican Bush administration will also likely result in a new round of highly politicized obscenity prosecutions. The Congressionally appointed COPA Commission has already recommended stricter enforcement of existing obscenity laws, and the National Academy of Sciences ' Protecting Kids from Pornography panel will likely make similar recommendations. Only problem, what the hell does a community standard mean on the net!? Chris Hunter Annenberg School for Communication University of Pennsylvania --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 15:59:16 -0500 From: Arnold G. Reinhold <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] I predict that key portions the U.S. Digital Millennium Copyright Act will be declared to be unconstitutional on First Amendment grounds. Arnold Reinhold Internet Author and Consultant --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 13:15:08 -0800 (PST) From: Nik McCrory <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Reply-To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] President Bush will be mired in scandal and there will been an independent investigator assigned to investigate his business dealings before he entered office. Nik McCrory --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 15:30:17 -0600 From: Rick Shaw <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: 'Declan McCullagh' <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: RE: Prediction for 2001 Declan, below is our 99 word prediction.... thanks! 2001 will be the year of AWARENESS. Here is why^E GLBA, HIPAA, BS7799, ISO17799, Bill C-6 and the EU are all about regulations and guidelines that business sectors and countries must follow regarding Privacy and Security of consumer and patient data. To accomplish Information Security and Privacy, these regulations must be communicated to all employees, vendors and business associates via awareness and education solutions. People are NOT going to sit down and read these regulations, so new strategies and managed services like e-MOAT, electronic-Managed Ongoing Awareness Training, from CorpNet Security will be critical components to organizations around the world. Rick Shaw/President&CEO Mick Johannes/CTO CorpNet Security, Inc. --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 16:28:30 -0500 From: Robert O'Neil <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: New Year Predictions Declan -- For the new year, I would venture a couple of predictions. First, the now clear split among federal circuits on the constitutionality of the Child Pornography Prevention Act makes Supreme Court review highly probable. If and when that occurs, the Court may well uphold the virtual child pornography provisions by giving them (as did the First Circuit) a somewhat narrower scope than Congress almost certainly intended. Of two other petitions pending before the Court, I doubt very much they will take either Urofsky from the Fourth Circuit or ACLU/Reno II from the Third, and will thus give COPA a decent burial, while leaving standing Virginia's ban on state employees using state owned or leased computers to access sexually explicit material. Bob O'Neil Thomas Jefferson Center for the Protection of Free Expression --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 16:34:11 -0500 (EST) From: J.D. Abolins <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: Declan McCullagh <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <screetch><sckreetch><polishing the crystal ball> Looking ahead at information security and privacy in 2001, I see more people learning the hard way that security is a process rather than fixed goal. Virus & worm writers will find a novel way to exploit features of some common products to cause headaches. Plenty virus myths and misinformation to go around in the midst of all this. Good possibility some prosecutor will apply computer crime laws to a person hacking a smart card in his possession. (It's a processor owned by somebody else.) Low likelihood that legislators will get it in regards to security, freedoms, etc. After blitz of privacy concerns in popular media and tech journals, many people will burn out on this issue. If we are fortunate, there will be some thought given to the philosophy of "why privacy" and how it fits in with rights of speech, press, etc. that help give focus to privacy and rights. Bristol,UK will experience a plague of mutant hamsters. <Ooops, that's one for the pulp tabloids. Strike this paragraph. <g> Below is the affiliation info for the prediction. J.D. Abolins Meyda Online -- Infosec & Privacy Studies Web: http://www.meydabbs.com (I am typing this quickly to make the deadline. Feel free to correct typos, edit for brevity, etc. Thank you. -JDA) --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 13:42:54 -0800 From: Sonia Arrison <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "'[EMAIL PROTECTED]'" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> My prediction: The three symbols that figure prominently in my crystal ball are a mouth, a key, and some coins. That's because the three most important tech issues of 2001 will be free speech, privacy, and e-money. ISPs will continue to be the targets of governments like France who want to control what their citizens see and read. Privacy in all instances will be contentious, especially when it comes to genetics. E-money will appear back on the scene as countries other than the U.S. (for example, Japan), begin to experiment and succeed with viable e-money systems. In all, this year holds promise for some very interesting and important debates indeed. -Sonia Sonia Arrison Director, Center for Freedom and Technology Pacific Research Institute 755 Sansome Street, Suite 450 San Francisco, CA 94111 ph: (415) 989-0833 x 107 fx: (415) 989-2411 www.pacificresearch.org --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 16:14:11 -0600 From: fran ilich <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: 2001 wired prediction. hi, declan, here comes my prediction, i hope you find what you're looking for. "2001 is the year that teenage bedroom media will hit hard and the modem drama of the third world suburbias will be netcasted, archived, zipped, written. Kids everywhere are learning html code and buying pirated software, at least in borderland mexico and mexico city. For these kids, media will be a total different thing. Of course, MTV, AOL, the film companys will have to adapt yet again to these changes (forget the real world and big brother) or find out the wrong way that the net.tv remote control does include a diy key on it. " editor @ large, sputnik cultura digital magazine. (mexico) nos vemos en el futuro. ilich. http://www.sputnik.com.mx http://www.neuroticos.com/borderhack --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 16:24:34 -0600 From: "TheHermit (E-mail)" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Can you cut this in half? 2001 is probably going to be a rough year for money - but for those of us doing what we love, we will probably have a lot more time in which to do it. Working on the next generation of the human-computer interface might be the most rewarding area available. It has to happen soon - we are all still operating on 30-year-old operating systems and communications technologies - and we humans are collapsing under the strain of attempting to organize our computers. Even agent technology has a major problem right now, as information is buried in many different formats and in many "hidden" locations. If an intelligent human has no chance of finding what is needed without being bogged down in irrelevancy, how much less of a chance does a program have. Seeing as computers have contributed to the "noise stream" it is more than time for them to carry their share in filtering it. "Intelligent" content-addressable storage, spam-filtering, indexing and searching will all play a major role in achieving this. Making it possible to transfer things of value and set conditions of use is another. Finally, given the rate at which the world's governments seem to be wanting to either peek at what we are doing, or prevent us from doing it, it is more than time to work on a system that effectively, simply, seamlessly and transparently makes all of our communications opaque to eavesdroppers. What is fascinating about this is that the correct solution could well solve all of these problems simultaneously. I'm sure that smart people are working on the problem. 256 words, a most appropriate number... Have a great millennium. Carl Wagener Hermit Technologies, Inc. --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 17:26:47 -0500 From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: RE: Invitation to contribute to Wired News predictions article Declan-- Just got this for you. Best, Chris Faile Jupiter Research Commerce site security incidents will escalate dramatically in 2001. With online shopping using credit cards having doubled over the 2000 holiday season, Internet criminals will get craftier at breaking the law to seize more valuable honeypots of consumer data. Commerce sites can only stack so much risk on the camel's back before security breaches cause it to break. - Andrew Ari Clibanoff, Analyst, Jupiter Research --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 17:25:01 -0500 From: Glenn Hauman <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Re: FC: Invitation to contribute to Wired News predictions article >It's time for Wired News' annual predictions story, and I'd like for >politech members to be a part of it. One telephone company will unveil a flat fee payment plan for long-distance telephone service-- one price for unlimited usage. E-book proponets will continue to ignore the billions of pages already published on the Internet. Jesse Ventura will get 25% of the popular vote in the 2004 US Presidential election. Best-- Glenn Hauman, BiblioBytes http://www.bb.com/ --- Date: 28 Dec 2000 15:13:02 -0800 From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Re: FC: Invitation to contribute to Wired News predictions article This might be too late for your 5 PM deadline (it's 6:15 now, but perhaps you have some wiggle room). Here's a thought: --The most revolutionary technology development in the legal field was the [expletive deleted] Supreme Court finally putting up a Web site, at http://www.supremecourtus.gov, and making the audio version, or what you wonderfully called the MP3 version, of the oral arguments in Bush v. Gore immediately available. (Usually you have to wait weeks for a transcript). As the judges are the most important players in the legal system, and they are the most technologically backward, the cracks in the Supreme Court's wall of Luddites are significant. We will see: 1. More courts accepts filings electronically; 2. More courts handling routine matters such as scheduling conferences and even motions via e-mail; 3. Technology making pro bono cases more accessible to more attorneys via sites such as Pro Bono Net, http://www.probono.net and Corporate Pro Bono, at http://www.corporateprobono.org; and 4. With the expected change of personnel on the Supreme Court, perhaps--just perhaps--they will begin to televise oral arguments, though the faces of the justices will not be seen. Edit these as you like! Happy merry--as the saying goes, it's fun to make predictions, as long as they don't have to be accurate. Regards, Wendy R. Leibowitz Legal Technology Columnist, Pro2Net.com --- Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2000 13:53:33 -0500 From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sony will come out with PlayStation 3 just in time for Christmas 2001, but the US government will attempt to ban its sale for "national security" purposes. And with Saddam Hussein trying to hoard PlayStations this year, who can blame them? Hah. -Cosmo, the Cosmopolitan contributor, cluebot.com --- ------------------------------------------------------------------------- POLITECH -- Declan McCullagh's politics and technology mailing list You may redistribute this message freely if it remains intact. To subscribe, visit http://www.politechbot.com/info/subscribe.html This message is archived at http://www.politechbot.com/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------
