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Report: climate change to accelerate

<http://itn.co.uk/news/20010122/world/05climate.shtml>

1/22/00

In the most emphatic warning yet about global  warming, scientists from 99
nations have issued a report that sharply increases projected climate
change blamed on air pollution and warned of drought and other disasters.
The report, meant to spur stalled world talks on curbing greenhouse gas
emissions, said global temperatures could rise by up to 5.8 degrees C (10.5
degrees F) over the next century.
"This adds impetus for governments of the world to find ways to live up to
their commitments to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases," said Robert T
Watson, chairman of the UN-affiliated Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, which organised the meeting in Shanghai.
International talks ended in November without agreement on how to carry out
a 1987 agreement by industrialised countries to cut greenhouse gas
emissions to 5.2 per cent below 1990 levels by 2010.
Talks resume in May in Bonn, Germany.
The Shanghai report, meant to be the most comprehensive study to date on
global warming, says new evidence shows more clearly than ever that
temperature increases are caused mostly by pollution, not by changes in the
sun or other natural factors.
"The rate of climate change this century is expected to be greater than it
has been in the past 10,000 years," Sir John T Houghton, co-chairman of the
Shanghai meeting and former head of Britain's weather agency, said at a
news conference.
The report is the most authoritative evidence yet to support warnings that
air pollution threatens to wreak environmental havoc by causing the
atmosphere to trap more of the sun's heat.
Rising temperatures could lead to drastic shifts in weather, scientists at
the meeting said.
They said drought could strike farming areas, while melting polar ice could
raise sea levels, flooding densely populated coastal areas of China, Egypt
and other countries.
"The poor in developing countries will be the most affected," said Watson,
an American who is chief science adviser to the World Bank.
In the most extreme projections, the report said, melting Antarctic ice
could raise sea levels by up to three metres (10 feet) over the next 1,000
years.
A key conflict in climate negotiations is a US-led effort to reduce the
impact of cuts.  Washington wants to count carbon dioxide absorbed by
forests and farmland against a country's reduction commitments.
Some European governments oppose that.  American cars, factories and power
plants put out a quarter of the world's greenhouse gases, which also
include nitrous oxide and methane.
Other opponents of drastic cuts include oil companies and major coal
producers such as Australia.
"The United States is way off meeting its targets," said Watson. "
A country like China has done more, in my opinion, than a country like the
United States to move forward in economic development while remaining
environmentally sensitive."
Most growth in greenhouse gas emissions is expected to take place in
developing countries, which are not covered by the 1987 reduction agreement.
The solution will lie in governments finding a way to transfer
anti-pollution technology, most of it privately owned, to poorer countries
that cannot afford to pay for it outright, said Watson.
"It's a question of, How do we create a framework for public and private to
work together? It is not one or the other," he said.

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