-Caveat Lector-
Message: 1
Date: Sun, 28 Jan 2001 23:34:52 +0100
From: "Mario Profaca" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: FW: RE: U.S. forces in Germany and Italy on alert
-----Original Message-----
From: International Justice Watch Discussion List
[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
On Behalf Of Jeremy Douglas
Sent: Sunday, January 28, 2001 9:14 PM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Re: U.S. forces in Germany and Italy on alert
I don't really think this is going to lead anywhere. The DoD is saying
this is a normal exercise but who knows. I do know that every time
we even sneeze in the mideast, journalists start writing that we are
preparing for something.
The last time was in November when the AF went through
a routine rotation. For 2 or 3 days we had several thousand
Air Force personnel coming home and several thousand taking
their place in the mideast. It was reported all over the press that
the Air Force had doubled their manpower in the region with hints
that something was about to happen. (Something did happen, half
of them came home a couple days later).
If this was a sign of something I wouldn't expect the Patriot
battery to be shipped via sea, I would expect it to be shipped
overnight by air (UPS or Fed-Ex maybe?) :)
But aside from that I'm skeptical of Iraq's ability to field several
divisions even in a peacetime deployment and especially in a long
range manuever through Syria to attack Israel. Although their military
industry, which I believe is underrated, could probably sustain a short
engagement, I just don't think they have the maintainance ability, spares,
or training for a long range engagement. I think they could make a
sucessful attack on a selected target or city, and they very well might, but
a
real battle (or war) wouldn't be sustainable.
Plus they would be overextended, already having (or had, that's
probably where the troops on the Syrian border came from) 16 of
their best divisions and most of their tanks deployed against the
Kurds in the north and 6 divisions in the south and east to counter
Shia (that probably should be spelled Shian?) rebels. That doesn't
leave much but a couple Republican Guard divisions which are usually
employed in defensive and early warning positions around Bagdad,
keeping Saddam in power and satisfying his paranoia. A recent
informal truce with the Kurds leaves his northern flank
somewhat secure but that probably won't last very long, it
never does.
But after 10 years of twiddling their thumbs.... you never know. Iraq
sure loves to get involved with the neighbors and there's a lot of dislike
for Israel in Iraq and a lot of trigger fingers that haven't been scratched
in a long time, at least outside the country.
Another journalistic error, and I do love pointing those out, Threatcon
Alpha is lower than Bravo. This article is wrong but The San Antonio
Express-News did correctly report that the Threatcon had been raised
from Alpha to Bravo instead of vice-versa.
Dr Peter Hall wrote:
It seems to be hotting up ....
Pentagon sources said the heightened tension in the Middle East prompted a
decision
to place on alert U.S. forces in Germany and Italy. They said Washington
has
been concerned about an Iraqi attack on Israel amid reports that several
Iraqi
divisions have moved close to the Syrian border.
Peter Hall
============================
U.S. FORCES PLACED ON ALERT
PATRIOT ANTI-MISSILE BATTERY DEPLOYED TO ISRAEL
Washington - Middle East Newsline - Friday, January 26:The United States has
sent a Patriot anti-missile defense battery to Israel amid heightened
concerns of a Middle East war.
Pentagon sources said the heightened tension in the Middle East prompted a
decision
to place on alert U.S. forces in Germany and Italy. They said Washington
hasbeen concerned about an Iraqi attack on Israel amid reports that several
Iraqidivisions have moved close to the Syrian border. The San Antonio
Express-News published a copy of a U.S. military order that on
Jan. 11 raised the alert status of U.S. forces from Threatcon Bravo to
Alpha.
Alpha is a heightened alert of a terrorist attack.
"Recent intelligence indicates that an increased or more predictable threat
exists,
thus warranting the Threatcon change," the U.S. military order read.
Pentagon officials said the Patriot missile brigade will participate in an
exercise
in Israel scheduled for Feb. 8. The exercise will last 15 days.
The exercise, called "Juniper Cobra," will include about 400 members of the
69th
Air Defense Artillery Brigade based near Frankfurt, Germany. A Patriot
missile
battery and personnel are expected to arrive by ship on Feb. 4 and join
Patriot
batteries already deployed in the Jewish state.
"It is a training event to sustain interoperability between the U.S. Army
and
the Israeli defense forces," U.S. Army spokesman Maj. Tom Collins said.
In December, Lockheed Martin was awarded a $212 million contract to produce
an
upgraded Patriot.
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