-Caveat Lector-
I don't think we really have to worry to much about Iraq based on the
weapons that we have that have been publicly disclosed. And then there
are the...
Steve
On 29 Jan 01, at 1:02, Michael Pugliese wrote:
> -Caveat Lector-
>
> Message: 1
> Date: Sun, 28 Jan 2001 23:34:52 +0100
> From: "Mario Profaca" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Subject: FW: RE: U.S. forces in Germany and Italy on alert
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: International Justice Watch Discussion List
> [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
> On Behalf Of Jeremy Douglas
> Sent: Sunday, January 28, 2001 9:14 PM
> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Subject: Re: U.S. forces in Germany and Italy on alert
>
>
> I don't really think this is going to lead anywhere. The DoD is saying
> this is a normal exercise but who knows. I do know that every time
> we even sneeze in the mideast, journalists start writing that we are
> preparing for something.
> The last time was in November when the AF went through
> a routine rotation. For 2 or 3 days we had several thousand
> Air Force personnel coming home and several thousand taking
> their place in the mideast. It was reported all over the press that
> the Air Force had doubled their manpower in the region with hints
> that something was about to happen. (Something did happen, half
> of them came home a couple days later).
> If this was a sign of something I wouldn't expect the Patriot
> battery to be shipped via sea, I would expect it to be shipped
> overnight by air (UPS or Fed-Ex maybe?) :)
> But aside from that I'm skeptical of Iraq's ability to field several
> divisions even in a peacetime deployment and especially in a long
> range manuever through Syria to attack Israel. Although their military
> industry, which I believe is underrated, could probably sustain a short
> engagement, I just don't think they have the maintainance ability, spares,
> or training for a long range engagement. I think they could make a
> sucessful attack on a selected target or city, and they very well might, but
> a
> real battle (or war) wouldn't be sustainable.
> Plus they would be overextended, already having (or had, that's
> probably where the troops on the Syrian border came from) 16 of
> their best divisions and most of their tanks deployed against the
> Kurds in the north and 6 divisions in the south and east to counter
> Shia (that probably should be spelled Shian?) rebels. That doesn't
> leave much but a couple Republican Guard divisions which are usually
> employed in defensive and early warning positions around Bagdad,
> keeping Saddam in power and satisfying his paranoia. A recent
> informal truce with the Kurds leaves his northern flank
> somewhat secure but that probably won't last very long, it
> never does.
> But after 10 years of twiddling their thumbs.... you never know. Iraq
> sure loves to get involved with the neighbors and there's a lot of dislike
> for Israel in Iraq and a lot of trigger fingers that haven't been scratched
> in a long time, at least outside the country.
> Another journalistic error, and I do love pointing those out, Threatcon
> Alpha is lower than Bravo. This article is wrong but The San Antonio
> Express-News did correctly report that the Threatcon had been raised
> from Alpha to Bravo instead of vice-versa.
> Dr Peter Hall wrote:
> It seems to be hotting up ....
> Pentagon sources said the heightened tension in the Middle East prompted a
> decision
> to place on alert U.S. forces in Germany and Italy. They said Washington
> has
> been concerned about an Iraqi attack on Israel amid reports that several
> Iraqi
> divisions have moved close to the Syrian border.
>
> Peter Hall
> ============================
> U.S. FORCES PLACED ON ALERT
>
> PATRIOT ANTI-MISSILE BATTERY DEPLOYED TO ISRAEL
>
> Washington - Middle East Newsline - Friday, January 26:The United States has
> sent a Patriot anti-missile defense battery to Israel amid heightened
> concerns of a Middle East war.
> Pentagon sources said the heightened tension in the Middle East prompted a
> decision
> to place on alert U.S. forces in Germany and Italy. They said Washington
> hasbeen concerned about an Iraqi attack on Israel amid reports that several
> Iraqidivisions have moved close to the Syrian border. The San Antonio
> Express-News published a copy of a U.S. military order that on
> Jan. 11 raised the alert status of U.S. forces from Threatcon Bravo to
> Alpha.
> Alpha is a heightened alert of a terrorist attack.
> "Recent intelligence indicates that an increased or more predictable threat
> exists,
> thus warranting the Threatcon change," the U.S. military order read.
> Pentagon officials said the Patriot missile brigade will participate in an
> exercise
> in Israel scheduled for Feb. 8. The exercise will last 15 days.
> The exercise, called "Juniper Cobra," will include about 400 members of the
> 69th
> Air Defense Artillery Brigade based near Frankfurt, Germany. A Patriot
> missile
> battery and personnel are expected to arrive by ship on Feb. 4 and join
> Patriot
> batteries already deployed in the Jewish state.
> "It is a training event to sustain interoperability between the U.S. Army
> and
> the Israeli defense forces," U.S. Army spokesman Maj. Tom Collins said.
> In December, Lockheed Martin was awarded a $212 million contract to produce
> an
> upgraded Patriot.
>
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