-Caveat Lector- WJPBR Email News List [EMAIL PROTECTED] Peace at any cost is a Prelude to War! Kremlin fears Central Asia tinderbox By Ben Aris in Moscow (Filed: 21/09/2001) RUSSIA was still undecided over offering practical help to any American strike against Afghanistan because it fears that this could destabilise the whole of Central Asia. Igor Ivanov, the foreign minister, hinted on Tuesday that Russia might allow US forces to use bases in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia, but he seemed to step back from his remarks yesterday. The Kremlin is concerned that an attack on Afghanistan could fuel Islamic uprisings across the Central Asian states which still look to Moscow as the dominant power in the region. The most likely centre of operations the United States would prefer is Tajikistan, which has a large Russian base only 60 miles from the Afghan border. The Tajiks have only recently emerged from a five-year civil war and Russian troops are there to support the local government and ensure stability as much as to protect the border. The country is still troubled by outbreaks of violence led by regional warlords and disgruntled United Tajik Opposition guerrilla leaders, who oppose the current government. Thanks to the presence of Russian troops the Tajik government has regained some sort of control over the country. However, guerrilla fighters who have been backed into a corner during the intermittent fighting have begun spilling over the border into neighbouring republics. Last August, Kyrgyzstan was raided by Islamic rebels coming across the Tajik border. They captured a group of Japanese geologists who were looking for gold in the mountains and four US mountaineers who were on holiday in the region. With an economy reeling from sustained droughts and its people on the point of starvation in some southern areas, the tiny Kyrgyz army is ill-equipped to fight battle-hardened rebels or a sustained campaign against incursions. The spread of Tajik rebels has also worried Uzbekistan. North-west Tajikistan includes the head of the fabled Fergana valley, the only really fertile place in Central Asia. Alexander the Great passed through the valley on his way to India and commented on the abundance of melons and grapes, which still grow there. To add to the confusion almost all the regional nationalities are present in the Fergana valley with little regard for the political borders artificially created by Stalin decades ago. Kyrgyzstan also straddles the Fergana valley, the bulk of which lies in Uzbekistan. Afraid that rebels would pass down the valley into their country, the Uzbeks sent fighter planes into Kyrgyz territory last year to bomb rebel positions, to the outrage of the Kyrgyz government. However, the Uzbek fears are well justified as president Islam Karimov, a virtual dictator, narrowly survived an assassination attempt in December 1999 when Islamic extremists exploded five car bombs in Tashkent, the capital. Mr Karimov has tried to repress Islam in his country, but with only limited success. Samarkand, in the middle of Uzbekistan, is an important holy city in the Islamic world. Uzbekistan's large Muslim population is concentrated in the Fergana valley, the scene of frequent police raids where human rights groups say a man can be arrested for little more than having a beard. There is an uneasy peace but analysts have been warning for years of the "explosion of the Fergana valley", a popular and religiously motivated uprising against Mr Karimov's authoritarian rule. What the Kremlin and the leaders of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan fear most is a flood of rebel fighters spilling out of Afghanistan and into their countries. This would be a spark to set off the tinderbox of religious dissent all along the Fergana valley. *COPYRIGHT NOTICE** In accordance with Title 17 U. S. C. Section 107, any copyrighted work in this message is distributed under fair use without profit or payment to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for nonprofit research and educational purposes only.[Ref. http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml ] Want to be on our lists? Write at [EMAIL PROTECTED] for a menu of our lists! <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/";>www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance—not soap-boxing—please! 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