-Caveat Lector-
From
http://www.observer.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,596786,00.html
>>>Rudi the Right-On Reindeer to the Rescue (via E-Y) ? <<<
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$20bn to start again
War in Afghanistan: Observer special
Anthony Browne
Sunday November 18, 2001
The Observer
It has none of the usual structures of government, millions of
destroyed houses, limited water and electricity supplies, minimal
health care and education, severely disrupted agriculture after three
years of drought, no manufacturing and no exports. Children suffer
one of the highest death rates in the world, with an adult life
expectancy of just 41 years. Afghanistan is more a hole in the map
than a country.
With the prospect of some form of peace after 20 years of war,
international agencies are turning their minds on how to put
Afghanistan back together again. The large size and population of
Afghanistan, and its utter devastation, means the task dwarfs that
of rebuilding Kosovo, Bosnia, Kuwait or East Timor, and could cost
as much as $20 billion.
The World Bank, Asian Development Bank and the United Nations Development Programme
(UNDP) are meeting next week in Islamabad in Pakistan to discuss the problem. Plans
already drawn up focus first on humanitarian relief
, and then on rebuilding the physical infrastructure of the country and
re-establishing law, order, local and national government and a functioning economy.
Britain's Department for International Development has also draw
n up a 100-day plan for relief.
The plans are dependent on peace being established, and rely on large numbers of
skilled and educated Afghan refugees returning to help and on finding work for former
soldiers who have lived by the gun for two decades.
David Lockwood, deputy director of the Asia and Pacific Region for the UNDP, who lived
in Afghanistan for five years, told The Observer: 'It is the biggest post-conflict
reconstruction project in the world since the Mars
hall Plan in Europe. We need the whole world to pull together to rebuild this place.'
Afghanistan has up to 25 million inhabitants, including refugees. A World Bank paper
published last week says that reconstruction help for Lebanon (population four
million) totalled $4bn over 10 years, in Bosnia (populati
on five million) it was $5.4bn over five years, and East Timor, with just half a
million people, is receiving $350m over three years.
Spending on a similar scale - about $1,000 a head - would mean that rebuilding
Afghanistan would cost about $20bn. Clearing mines alone will cost $500m.
The UNDP is working to restart its emergency humanitarian aid programme, but although
most main roads are still passable and airports are being opened up to aid planes,
some roads in Northern Alliance-held areas are still
subject to ambush byTaliban groups.
After humanitarian aid is stepped up, the most important task is re-establishing
agriculture, including seed production and irrigation. Other immediate concerns
include rebuilding housing, getting rid of mines and setting
up health clinics and hospitals, and an education service that includes girls. Only
3 per cent of girls in the country are enrolled in schools, and it will be difficult
to persuade refugee professionals to return unles
s their daughters can be guaranteed a good education.
Other projects include rebuilding electricity and water supplies, telephone systems
and national broadcasting networks. The fabric of society needs to be rebuilt, with
police forces, courts, public administration, nationa
l government buildings, a central bank and treasury all needed. William Byrd, the
World Bank's manager for Afghanistan, said: 'Social reconstruction is the most
difficult thing to achieve. The hardware can be done - it's
the software that is difficult and crucial.'
British companies are already eyeing the opportunities for contracts. Binnie Black &
Veatch worked on the water supply in Kabul before the Taliban took over, while
Manderstam International helped with cotton ginning. 'W
e have tremendous experience of working in these situations and helping
reconstruction. A lot of our people know the area very well,' said Colin Adams, chief
executive of the British Consultants and Construction Bureau.
However, the World Bank and UNDP are wary of flooding Afghanistan with Westerners, and
are concentrating on helping the Afghans to help themselves, although a whole
generation has had no education and most people with use
ful skills have left.
'With peace, stability and bits of the local economy starting again, there will be a
huge pull factor bringing refugees back in.' Lockwood said. Many refugees have become
economically successful - they dominate Pakistan's
trucking industry and have become prominent money-changers in the region.
International agencies hope that Afghanistan will eventually resume its traditional
exports of dried fruits and nuts, textiles including carpets, and gems. A planned oil
pipeline across the country could prove a big sourc
e of revenue.
The massive task ahead
� Only 39 per cent of boys and 3 per cent of girls are in primary school.
� One in four children dies before the age of five; life expectancy is 41 years. One
in 60 women dies in childbirth, with 15,000 dying last year from pregnancy-related
causes.
� Around 3,000 people are killed by unexploded mines each year.
Mines will cost $500m to remove.
� 77 per cent of Afghans have no access to safe water and 88 per
cent no access to adequate sanitation.
� 12 million Afghans have been affected by the three-year drought,
and 3.8 million are dependent on food aid.
� Until this year's ban on poppy cultivation, in some provinces 95
per cent of households sold opium to earn a living. The drugs trade
was worth $2bn a year to Afghanistan.
� Afghanistan has recently received $300m a year in humanitarian
relief, with the US the biggest single donor.
Guardian Unlimited � Guardian Newspapers Limited 2001
End<{{{
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