-Caveat Lector- America in Pakistan
US operations in Pakistan could have far-reaching fallouts. http://www.indiareacts.com/archivedebates/nat2.asp?recno=278 21 December 2001: Two days ago, an American television channel, ABC News, revealed that the United States had reached a secret understanding with Pakistan. Under the deal, US warplanes, special forces and secret services will target Al-Qaeda terrorists hiding in madarsas and refugee camps in the North West Frontier Province. Pakistan will grant permission for such hot pursuits on a case-to-case basis. Will America get the Al-Qaeda terrorists? At what cost? What will be the fallouts in Pakistan, and how will it affect the military regime of General Pervez Musharraf? The secret agreement is based on certain obvious fears and assumptions. The agreement is secret because Pakistan cannot justify US action in Pakistan to its people. The war in Afghanistan remains unpopular even though most Pakistanis may not support the routed Taliban or Al-Qaeda terrorism. But in the North West Frontier Province, there is widespread support for the Taliban and Osama Bin Laden. The Frontier people are Pushtun like the Taliban. They admire Bin Laden. It is reflected in the fact that thousands of Pushtun tribals left to fight with the Taliban and scores died in Afghanistan. And, it is also reflected in the Pakistan army. Middle-ranking Pushtun officers opposed Pakistan�s support to the US campaign (See Intelligence, ��Musharraf isolated in supporting US,� 16 September 2001). US intelligence has records of 55 satellite phone calls made by Al-Qaeda leaders to these Pushtun officers in the army and ISI at the height of Tora Bora bombing. American officials say that the army officers could have arranged safe passage for fleeing Al-Qaeda fighters. So US hot pursuits in NWFP are likely to provoke the Pushtuns and create new unrest among Pushtun army officers. And yet, the secret agreement is based on a thin assumption. The assumption is that Al-Qaeda terrorists will not venture into other parts of Pakistan like Punjab or Sind, Baluchistan or Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. This is based on a view that the terrorists will find it easier to hide in NWFP because of past Taliban and tribal associations. This view is not entirely invalid. But if the Al-Qaeda terrorists get as good shelter in Punjab or Sind, why won�t they head there? One likely answer could be to be near the fighting in Afghanistan. But what is to be gained by that? The Taliban is finished. Afghanistan couldn�t have been anymore than a base for the Al-Qaeda. If it must survive to carry on Bin Laden�s vision of the destruction of the West and world dominance, wouldn�t it cut its loses and move to safer territory? Why would Al-Qaeda terrorists remain in NWFP to be targetted by US forces? If the Al-Qaeda terrorists fan out into rest of Pakistan � if they haven�t already � there could be hell to pay. They could link up with such terrorist organisations as the Tehrik-ul-Jaffria located in Punjab and Sind, the Karachi-based Sipah-e-Sahaba, the Jaish-e-Mohammad in Punjab and Sind, or the Lashkar-e-Toiba headquartered in Muridke, Lahore, or the Al-Badr which is small but deadly. All these terrorist groups are organically linked to the Al-Qaeda through Pakistan�s Army of Islam. They have trained their cadres in Al-Qaeda camps in Afghanistan, received funds from Al-Qaeda, and according to CIA studies function as Al-Qaeda cells. Osama Bin Laden financed the December-1999 Indian Airlines flight IC-814 hijacking to get Jaish terrorist leader Masood Azar released from Indian jail. And the five Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad terrorists who were killed trying to storm Indian Parliament on 13 December seemed to be financed by Al-Qaeda. Indian investigators say that they made 50-60 20-25-minute international calls revealing their worldwide connections. �Pakistani terrorists before this have never made so many international calls,� said an official. �There is a clear Al-Qaeda link in the 13-December attack.� The point is that there is little distinction between Al-Qaeda and the Pakistani terrorist groups. No Al-Qaeda fighter will be refused shelter by Pakistani terrorist groups. They will not surrender them without armed resistance. Before 11 September, the United States could � and would � have made a deal with these Pakistani terrorist groups. They could continue their terrorism in Kashmir or on the streets of Karachi if they gave up the Al-Qaeda terrorists. But the terror attacks in New York and Washington have proved that Al-Qaeda is a multi-national terrorist network, not a single ultra outfit with a top, a middle and a bottom. There can be no question of a deal. If Al-Qaeda has to be destroyed, the Jaish, LeT, Al-Badr, the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, the Tehrik-ul-Mujahideen, and the Sepah-e-Sahaba have to be destroyed. This is what it will be if America goes after the Al-Qaeda in NWFP, and the Al-Qaeda terrorists disappear into the heart of Pakistan. And with the Jaish-e-Mohammad and the Lashkar-e-Toiba, whose assets have been frozen by America, US special forces will have to fight a war. This war will be different from the one fought in Afghanistan. Afghanistan was no man�s land. Pakistan is a functioning � if only terrorist � state. It will be an urban guerilla war here. Can American forces take on Pakistani terrorist groups? Alongwith the Pakistan army, yes. But will the Pakistani army go along? It�s hard to say. One view is that it will because it is committed to the war against terrorism. Going after the Pakistani terrorist groups to get Al-Qaeda fighters could be justified within the army as a logical extension of the war against terrorism. This could be Musharraf�s plank. He could cite the case-by-case permission to the US forces as reflecting his concern about American troop presence. And he could win the day by saying that concessions to the US would strengthen Pakistan vis-�-vis India. But there is a second view. This is that the war against terrorism was fine as long as it was restricted to Afghanistan. US military action inside Pakistan is another matter. It could divide the army. Musharraf and his current team could be on one side. On the other could be Pushtun officers troubled by the Afghan campaign and enraged by US action in NWFP. They could make common cause with the Punjabi army officers if the terrorist groups they support in Punjab and Sind are targetted. The Pakistan army is not a terrorist army. But sections of it have very close links with terrorists, and they have aided terrorism in Punjab and Kashmir. If US forces attack the terrorists it supports, Musharraf�s position within the Pakistan army could become rocky. The Pakistan army is key to the evolving situation. Both Musharraf and the US depend on it. Musharraf remains in power because of the Pakistan army. And the US is using the Pakistan army through Musharraf to prosecute the war against terror. It is the Pakistan army that has prevented anti-Americanism from boiling over so far in Pakistan. If the interests of Musharraf, the United States and the Pakistani army clash in the contradictions emerging in Pakistan, America would stand alone. Today, it hopes to control Pakistan�s decision-making by taking over the Jacobabad airbase. Without the backing of the Pakistan army, it would have to deploy an entire occupation force. The coming days will have to see very calibrated American action. The war in Afghanistan has spread to Pakistan as expected. __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? 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