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World dispatch
Beleaguered Iraq extends the hand of friendship
An embassy reopens, flights resume between Iraq and Iran and Saddam
Hussein finally acknowledges Kuwait's sovereignty. It looks as though
the president is trying to escape the wrath of the United States,
writes Brian Whitaker
Brian Whitaker
Monday February 4, 2002
The Guardian
It's hard to find a friendlier country than Iraq right now. Wherever
you look, Saddam Hussein's emissaries are signalling their readiness
to let bygones be bygones.
There are no prizes for guessing why this is happening. As a founding
member of the "axis of evil" (� George Bush 2002), Iraq faces the
threat of a military attack by the US.
The attack, if it happens, is likely to come in the second half of this year and will
not be the usual bombing of Iraq's air defence systems. Its aim will be to remove
Saddam from power.
Iraq's strategy for heading off such an attack is based on removing, as far as
possible, likely pretexts for a military strike and minimising international support
for it outside the US. If Saddam plays his cards right, W
ashington hawks could end up frustrated, bitterly disappointed and absolutely furious.
Iraq's diplomatic offensive consists of three strands.
The first is an attempt to enhance its image and generally improve its international
relations. Last week, for example, Iraq invited the UN's special human rights
investigator to visit the country for the first time in a
decade. The investigator was originally appointed in 1991 but, after an initial visit
in 1992, had never been allowed back. Since then, the UN commission on human rights
has regularly accused Iraq of serious abuses. Also
within the last week, Iraq made overtures towards Iran, the EU and Swtizerland.
The Iraqi embassy in Switzerland, which has been closed for 11 years, will reopen
shortly.
Iraq also approached Spain, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the EU,
to "activate dialogue with the European Union".
Meanwhile, relations between Iraq and neighbouring Iran continue to improve. There
were further releases of prisoners captured during the 1980-88 war, and Iraq announced
recently that direct flights between the two neighb
ours will shortly resume after an interruption of more than 20 years.
Iran's neutrality or tacit support in any conflict between the US and Iraq will be
vital for Saddam. It is worth recalling that many Iraqi warplanes escaped destruction
during the 1991 Gulf war by taking shelter in Iran.
The second strand of the Iraqi strategy is to repair its relations with the Arab
world, which essentially would be achieved by a reconciliation with Kuwait.
Iraq hopes this will happen at the Arab League's summit, to be held in Lebanon next
month, and the league's secretary-general, Amr Moussa, has been shuttling round in an
effort to resolve the outstanding differences.
At last year's summit in Jordan, Arab leaders were prepared to call for the lifting of
sanctions and for an end to American and British bombing in the no-fly zones, but this
was abandoned when Iraq objected to the wording
of the draft statement. This time under threat of American attack, Iraq seems more
amenable.
"Iraq sincerely wants to start a new era," an Iraqi diplomat said recently. "We
recognise Kuwait as a sovereign country, and we recognise the borders that were
enforced by the UN." Kuwaitis, however, are unsure whether to
believe it. There have been plenty of incidents over the last decade to suggest that
Iraq has not fully renounced its claim to Kuwait, including a parliamentary map
showing Kuwait as part of Iraq. But the Iraqi media hav
e recently begun to mention Kuwait and neighbouring Saudi Arabia in terms that imply
they are now recognised as countries in their own right.
Mohammed al-Sager, chairman of the Kuwaiti parliament's foreign affairs committee,
agrees that the Iraqis are using "new language", but wonders if it is just window
dressing. "Nobody can predict," he says. "When they feel
threatened they are ready to do anything."
The other big issue for Kuwait, apart from protection of its sovereignty, is the fate
of more than 600 Kuwaitis who were detained by the Iraqis during the 1990-91 invasion
and have not been seen since. Kuwait says it has
evidence that at least some of them are still alive and being held in Iraq as a
bargaining counter.
Up to now, Iraq has insisted that it has no idea what happened to them, though it is
clear from testimony provided by relatives that the missing Kuwaitis were in the hands
of Iraqi officials at the time of their disappear
ance. Again, Iraq seems to have shifted its position on this issue. "If we sit
together I think we can arrive at a solution," an Iraqi official said.
The third strand of Iraq's strategy involves the UN security council and concerns
sanctions and weapons inspections. In this area, Iraq has pinned most of its hopes on
the Russians, who have strong political and financial
reasons for wanting to break the impasse.
Success would enhance Russia's standing at a time when international politics is
dominated by the US, and the economic benefits to Russia would be substantial. Among
other things, the Iraqis are hinting that Russia, rathe
r than the US, would get most of the contracts for refurbishing Iraq's oil industry
once sanctions are lifted.
The Russian plan would identify the sites in Iraq that are still to be inspected, with
a time limit for completing the inspections. The inspectors would return to Iraq and,
if they reported that the Iraqi authorities were
cooperating, sanctions would be suspended. On completion, the sanctions would be
permanently lifted. In the Russian plan, the time between the return of inspectors and
the final lifting of sanctions is expected to be rel
atively short.
Russia has made it clear to Iraq that there can be no progress towards lifting
sanctions unless it does allow the inspectors to return. While Iraq says it has no
problem with that, they say: "We want inspectors not spies.
They must be sincere in their goal and not seeking to prolong the sanctions." Iraq
also says it does not want the inspection team to be dominated by Americans. On purely
political grounds, that may be a reasonable argume
nt, but there are suspicions that Iraq's aim is to get a team of inspectors who will
either lack the necessary expertise or not look too closely for hidden weapons
programmes.
Russia has told Baghdad that it is not up to the Iraqis to decide on the inspection
team, though it agrees there should be "a more balanced picture regarding the
geographical representation of the UN inspectors".
So, if all goes according to Saddam Hussein's plan, Iraq will be rehabilitated by the
Arab League next month and in May, when the oil-for-food progamme comes up for its
six-monthly renewal in the security council, Russian
proposals for resuming weapons inspections and lifting sanctions will be approved.
That would bring an end to more than a decade of conflict and, unless something new
turned up in the meantime, the Americans would have n
o excuse for attacking Iraq.
There is, however, a lot that could blow those plans off course.
The Kuwaitis may remain unconvinced that Iraq's acceptance of their sovereignty is
genuine. The Americans, having deftly incorporated weapons of mass destruction as a
target in the "war on terrorism", may not be in the mo
od to accept symbolic inspections in Iraq.
The Iraqis, while emphasising their willingness to cooperate with weapons inspections,
may point out that part of security council resolution 687 applies to nuclear weapons
in Israel as well as Iraq, and insist that somet
hing be done about that.
There is also plenty of historical evidence that Saddam tends to overestimate the
level of support that he enjoys among foreign governments. The danger is that he may
not offer enough concessions, or may offer them too la
te, to secure a deal.
Meanwhile, it is equally possible that the Americans, as they begin
to look at the military options for removing Saddam, will get cold
feet. That could bring us, by the end of this year, neither war nor
peace with Iraq but more of the same old mess.
Guardian Unlimited � Guardian Newspapers Limited 2002
End<{{{
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