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WSWS : News & Analysis : Middle East : Iraq
Bush administration confirms plans for war against Iraq
By the Editorial Board
16 February 2002
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In an appearance by Secretary of State Colin Powell before a Senate
committee, as well as through selected leaks to the press, the Bush
administration has confirmed plans to launch a war with Iraq in a
matter of months.
Powell�s statements to a Senate Budget Committee hearing Tuesday were
the most categorical by any top US official and scotched any
illusions�apparently common in European governments�that the
secretary of state would serve as a restraining force on psychopaths
like Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and his deputy Paul
Wolfowitz.
Clearly distinguishing between Iraq and the other two countries that
Bush included in his State of the Union �axis of evil� diatribe,
Powell said, �With respect to Iran and with respect to North Korea,
there is no plan to start a war with these nations.�
The unmistakable implication was that there is a plan to start a war
with Iraq, and Powell added, �With respect to Iraq, it has long been,
for several years now, a policy of the United States government that
regime change would be in the best interests of the region, the best
interests of the Iraqi people.... And we are looking at a variety of
options that would bring that about.�
The secretary of state barely stopped short of a public declaration
of war, allowing that Bush �does not have a recommendation before him
that would involve an armed conflict tomorrow.�
A policy of reckless aggression
This decision, with the most far-reaching and potentially disastrous consequences for
the people of the Middle East, the United States and the world as a whole, has been
taken without even a pretense of consideration for
the American constitutional process�which requires a declaration of war�or for
international law�under which �planning an offensive war� is a war crime.
The pace of American military action continues to accelerate�from bombing to invasion
of Afghanistan, and now to the targeting of Iraq for what will inevitably become a
much bloodier campaign. It is impossible to understa
nd this drive to war as simply a response to the September 11 attacks. Rather, the
terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon serve as a pretext,
increasingly threadbare, for a program of militarism whic
h has been in preparation for many years.
Iraq is a case in point. The United States savagely bombed Iraqi military forces and
most of the country�s cities and towns in 1991, in response to the occupation of
Kuwait. The US and Britain continue to bomb Iraq more t
han a decade after the supposed end of the war, while the economic sanctions imposed
by the United Nations, at US instigation, are responsible for a modern holocaust, the
death of as many as one million Iraqis, mainly chi
ldren, the elderly, the sick and the poor.
The claim that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is a threat to the United States and
that war against Iraq is justified on the grounds of �self-defense��as US officials
declared last week at a NATO strategy conference in Mu
nich�is a cynical lie. No evidence has been presented that Saddam Hussein had anything
to do with the September 11 terrorist attacks, and even the American CIA no longer
makes such claims.
The recklessness of American foreign policy has sent shudders through the world, most
notably in Europe, where there are growing concerns among the ruling classes�as well
as among broader masses of the population�that the
y confront in the Bush administration something radically new and dangerous. European
Union external affairs chief Christopher Patten, a former general secretary of the
British Tory Party, warned that the US military succ
ess in Afghanistan �has perhaps reinforced some dangerous instincts: that the
projection of military power is the only basis of true security; that the US can rely
on no one but itself; and that allies may be useful as op
tional extras.�
The whole structure of international relations is being destabilized. Any government
that comes into conflict with American foreign policy now risks being targeted for a
military attack in the name of the �war on terroris
m.�
Scenarios for war
Statements outlining various scenarios for a US war with Iraq were leaked to three
American newspapers over the past week. The Los Angeles Times, in an article February
10, said that the Bush administration was now engage
d in �serious planning� for war with Iraq, and that Vice President Richard Cheney
would convey the US decisions to client states in the Middle East during a nine-nation
tour next month. Cheney will visit Saudi Arabia, Jor
dan, Turkey, Egypt, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar and Oman, all of
which could play a role in a US military onslaught on Baghdad.
The Times reported that the administration has made �two strategic decisions....
First, the Iraq problem has to be solved, not simply managed as it was during the two
previous U.S. administrations.... Second, Washington i
s prepared to push beyond the limitations imposed by international sentiment, Arab
public opinion and even the original U.N. resolutions that opened the way for
Operation Desert Storm 11 years ago to force Iraq out of tin
y oil-rich Kuwait.�
The language used is particularly ominous. Not since Nazi Germany�with Hitler�s
demands for immediate liquidation of �the Czech problem� or �the Polish problem��has a
world power spoken in such terms, or acted with such b
latant disregard for international opinion.
On February 12, both the Philadelphia Inquirer and USA Today reported that a decision
leading to war with Iraq had been made. The Inquirer quoted �a senior administration
official� who told the newspaper that current disc
ussion in the White House, Pentagon and State Department was not over the pros and
cons of attacking Iraq, but how to do it. �This is not an argument about whether to
get rid of Saddam Hussein,� he said. �That debate is o
ver.�
The CIA has presented Bush with plans for a full-scale campaign of subversion,
sabotage, covert action and bombing in the �no-fly� zones of northern and southern
Iraq, in preparation for overt military action, the Inquire
r said.
Officials told the newspaper that Cheney�s trip, while portrayed publicly as
consultation with Mideast leaders, was to deliver an ultimatum. �He�s not going to beg
for support,� one senior official told the newspaper. �He
�s going to inform them that the President�s decision has been made and will be
carried out, and if they want some input into how and when it�s carried out, now�s the
time for them to speak up.�
USA Today cited Bush administration officials, including Deputy Secretary of State
Richard Armitage, Powell�s closest aide, as its source for reporting that a decision
for war had been made. The newspaper said that diplom
atic and political options for dealing with Baghdad would be advanced as well, but
largely for the purpose of creating a pretext for military action.
The administration will seek the imposition of much tighter economic sanctions on Iraq
when the current regime comes up for renewal in May by the UN Security Council, as
well as placing demands on Baghdad to permit reentr
y of UN weapons inspectors who were expelled at the end of 1998. US spokesmen have
openly declared that the real purpose of these demands is to provoke an Iraqi
rejection and subsequent breakdown in the inspection process
which can then be used to set a deadline for military attack.
The military scenarios being considered, according to USA Today, range from targeted
bombing of the principal Iraqi ground force, the Republican Guards, in an effort to
provoke a military rebellion, to arming local opposi
tion forces such as the Kurds in the north and the Shi�ites in the south, to a
full-scale invasion by up to 200,000 US troops.
Troops and spies on the move
There are a number of concrete indications that the preparations for war against Iraq
are even more advanced than these reports suggest.
* US and British warplanes have intensified their bombing of Iraqi air defense
facilities. The most recent air raids took place January 22 and 24 near the town of
Tallil, 170 miles southeast of Baghdad.
* Thousands of Marines and other combat-ready troops are moving toward the region,
although the military operations in Afghanistan have been sharply cut back.
* A delegation of State Department and CIA officials visited Kurdish-held territory in
northern Iraq last month to make an on-the-spot survey of the forces available for
military action against Baghdad.
* More than 1,000 military command-and-control personnel have been shifted from US
bases to locations in the Persian Gulf, where they would be in position to direct a
much larger force of combat troops.
* The commander of Marine forces for the US Central Command moved his headquarters
from Florida to Bahrain, joining commanders for the Army, Navy and Air Force already
in the region.
Meanwhile intense pressure is being brought to bear on the countries that occupy the
most important strategic positions for a US war on Iraq: Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
Iran was included in the �axis of evil� characterization, in part because of a growing
conflict with the US over influence in western Afghanistan, which is predominately
Persian-speaking. The more important motive, howeve
r, is to keep Teheran on the sidelines during a US attack on Iraq. The principal
concern cited by US officials in halting the war with Iraq in 1991 was the fear that
Iran would emerge as the dominant power in the Persian
Gulf if Iraq�s military forces were completely destroyed.
Saudi Arabia has been the subject of a press campaign, particularly in the Washington
Post and New York Times, suggesting that the US may withdraw its support from the
monarchy� which would be a death sentence for the reg
ime�and support some other form of rule, such as a military dictatorship, because of
Saudi reluctance to serve as a base for a US invasion of Iraq.
In the case of Turkey, bribery rather than intimidation is the main US tactic. Earlier
this month the IMF approved a $16 billion loan to prop up the regime in Ankara, a
bailout backed by the US despite its opposition to a
ny similar measure for Argentina. There have been suggestions in the American and
international press that Turkey is being given other incentives for supporting a war,
ranging from an outright share of Iraq�s oil wealth�t
he Mosul oilfield is less than 100 miles from the Turkish border�to US aid for the
construction of an oil pipeline from the Caspian Sea to the Turkish Mediterranean port
of Ceyhan.
In return, Turkey may be asked to supply tanks and ground troops for the northern half
of the war against Iraq. A columnist in the Turkish newspaper Milliyet recently called
for the government to order the Turkish army to
march on Baghdad rather than permitting a Kurdish uprising or waiting for an
anti-Saddam military coup.
In a speech to his parliamentary caucus, Deputy Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz warned the
United States against any unilateral strike on Iraq, declaring, �We do not tolerate
the development, outside our knowledge and initiat
ive, of a process that will have close impact on us, nor our priorities being
disregarded and our national interests being trampled on.�
The Turkish regime is fearful that a war in Iraq could lead to the creation of an
independent Kurdistan in the north, which would become a magnet for millions of Kurds
in southeastern Turkey who are presently denied their
national rights. In addition to reassurances on that issue, Yilmaz was demanding�if
one translates the diplomatic jargon�that Turkey receive its share of the spoils in
the coming carve-up of Iraq�a territory which was ru
led by the Ottoman Empire for centuries, until it was seized by Great Britain during
World War I.
Timetable for aggression
According to a report appearing in the Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta on
February 6, citing sources in Russian military intelligence, the US government is
�preparing to launch a series of wars in the Middle East,�
with the attack on Iraq to begin in September. The newspaper said that the US has
begun concentrating the necessary forces in the region using the war in Afghanistan as
a cover. Steps have also been taken to recruit Kurdi
sh leaders to the plan, and to restore landing strips in the Kurdish-held region in
northern Iraq.
The Russian report said that at least one scenario envisages the destruction of the
Hussein government in the space of eight weeks through a combination of air strikes
and ground assault by proxy forces. This would be fol
lowed by similar attacks on Iran and Syria if they offer any resistance to US
domination in the region.
The timetable suggested in the Russian press may prove accurate, since there are
practical reasons which could delay ground action against Iraq until late summer:
* Summertime temperatures in the Mesopotamian desert would make ground operations
difficult for American troops.
* The Pentagon needs more time to move troops to the region and improve air bases and
logistical support.
* The US arms industry requires some months to rebuild the Pentagon�s stocks of
precision weapons, depleted first by the Kosovo war and now by Afghanistan.
* Ground action would be preceded by a period of heavy bombing, which could begin as
soon as the necessary weapons are ready for use.
There is, however, a more fundamental reason for supposing that US action will begin
no later than late summer, and even earlier, one that has nothing to do with
logistics, geography or, indeed, any military consideration
s at all. A US war against Iraq would then unfold in the midst of the 2002 election
campaign, creating the conditions for the Bush administration and the Republican Party
to wrap themselves in the flag and portray domesti
c opposition as virtual treason.
Despite the attempts of the media to present Bush as a politically powerful and
enormously popular president, he heads an administration which only took office thanks
to an antidemocratic coup by a 5-4 majority of the US
Supreme Court, and his domestic policies� huge tax cuts for the wealthy, slashing
social spending, promoting the agenda of the fundamentalist Christian right�are deeply
opposed by the vast majority of working people.
Without September 11 and the subsequent war in Afghanistan, this administration would
today face mounting popular opposition, as it was held responsible for the deepening
recession, the continuing wave of mass layoffs, an
d the criminal activities of its closest business supporters, such as Enron. Even with
the confusion created by the terrorist attacks and the full support of the
congressional Democrats�and Bush�s 2000 opponent Al Gore, w
ho called in a speech Wednesday for a �final reckoning� with Iraq�this is a regime in
crisis.
War is the means chosen by American imperialism to establish a dominant position in
the oil- rich Middle East and Central Asia. But more fundamentally, the drive to war
is a manifestation of the deepening class antagonism
s within the United States. War has become a political necessity for the survival of
the Bush administration. As one of the principal media apologists for the
administration, Wall Street Journal editor Robert Bartley, dec
lared hopefully in a TV appearance after Bush�s State of the Union speech, �This Enron
story isn�t going to last very long if we invade Iraq.�
The Bush administration represents the emergence, at the highest levels of American
capitalism, of a criminalized, gangster element. Its attitude to democracy was shown
in Florida, its attitude to working people is shown
in Enron, its attitude to the world is being displayed in Afghanistan and Iraq. And
the more Bush & Co. threaten war, the more they become compelled to translate words
into action, regardless of the consequences. The deep
ening crisis of American imperialism is dragging the world towards a catastrophe.
Copyright 1998-2002
World Socialist Web Site
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