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Bob,
The following is the source of the 51 trillion derivative
bubble:
[Source: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency Bank
Derivatives Report, 3Q01, Washington]
U.S. COMMERCIAL BANKS HELD $360 BILLION IN CREDIT
DERIVATIVES CONTRACTS AS OF SEPT. 30, 2001, out of a total
notional derivatives portfolio of $51,284 billion.
The OCC's first reported credit derivatives figure
was $55 billion for the end of 1997;
it jumped to $144 billion at the end of 1998,
$287 billion at the end of 1999,
and peaked at $426 billion at the end of 2000.
It dropped to $352 billion in 1Q01, and $351 billion in 2Q01.
The largest derivatives category continues to be
interest rate derivatives, with $43,147 billion as of 3Q01,
followed by forex with $6,642 billion, "other derivatives"
at $1,136 billion, and then credit derivatives at $360 billion.
Of the $51,284 billion total, $49,123 billion--95.8%--
was concentrated at the top 7 banks,
with another 352 banks sharing the remaining $2,161 billion.
J.P. Morgan reported 20% of its gross revenue from trading
in cash and derivatives in 3Q01, compared to 12%
at Chase Manhattan Bank, and 10% at Citibank.
For all banks, the figure was 3.3%.
Among the bank holding companies, Morgan Chase had $24 trillion
in notional derivatives at 3Q01, followed by Bank of America
and Citigroup with $9 trillion each.
Wachovia (formerly known as First Union)
came in a distant fourth at $1.9 trillion,
followed by Bank One at $793 billion,
Wells Fargo at $547 billion, the Bank of NY at $357 billion,
HSBC North America at $325 billion, FleetBoston at $289 billion
and Taunus at $278 billion.
(Taunus is the Deutsche Bank-owned remains of Bankers Trust.)
Source: Christopher Whalen, Feb. 18, 2002, Barron's]
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