-Caveat Lector-

Anthrax whodunit may have political subplot
04/01/2002

By TOM SIEGFRIED / The Dallas Morning News

INDIANAPOLIS � Science and politics never mix very well; war and politics can
never be separated. Put all three together, and you get a jumble that breeds
anthrax, biological terrorism's prime example of a weapon of mass disruption.

Anthrax is capable of mass destruction, too, and on a horrifying scale. But
last year's anthrax attack killed fewer Americans than the flu does on any
given weekend, points out Stanford biologist Steven Block, one of the nation's
leading experts on biological weapons. On the other hand, anthrax's terror
generated massive political, economic and social disruption, he notes, from
closing down the Supreme Court and slowing down mail service to inflicting
millions of dollars in cleanup costs.

Yet despite the scale of the anthrax disruption, efforts to identify the
perpetrator of the attack have apparently been ineffectual. The FBI's
performance in the anthrax case would not make for a very impressive CSI
episode. But Dr. Block says that more is known about the killer than many
people realize, and he hints that political considerations may end up
protecting the culprit's identity.

Speaking in Indianapolis last month at a national meeting of the American
Physical Society, Dr. Block reviewed the chronology of last year's anthrax
episodes and highlighted some of the conclusions that the evidence to date
suggests.

For one thing, the anthrax used in the attacks was almost certainly derived
from the U.S. military anthrax research program, he said.

"Nearly all the clues so far point to the possibility that this was in fact a
domestic source, an inside job," Dr. Block said.

The American process for preparing anthrax is secret in its details, but
experts know that it produces an extremely pure powder. One gram (a mere 28th
of an ounce) contains a trillion spores.

"A trillion spores per gram is basically solid spores," Dr. Block said, which
is why the U.S. method is regarded as "optimal" for weaponizing anthrax. And
the evidence indicates that the anthrax powder used in the mail attacks must
have been effectively weaponized.

"It appears from all reports so far that this was a powder made with the so-
called optimal U.S. recipe," Dr. Block said. "That means they either had to
have information from the United States or maybe they were the United States."


By that he meant the culprit or culprits may have been participants in U.S.
government anthrax research. And that, he said, "raises the serious possibility
that the United States may be violating" the international treaty outlawing the
development of offensive biological and chemical weaponry.

Only about 200 researchers participate in the U.S. program, Dr. Block said, and
fewer than 50 would have possessed the knowledge and skills needed to produce
the high-purity spores.

In a group of scientists that small, it should take no more than a handful of
clues to pinpoint any individual. Say, for illustration purposes only, that the
prime suspect was a science writer. If investigators revealed that the guilty
one usually drove long distances to attend science meetings, always sat in
restaurants where he could see the door, and included a note in the envelope
saying journalism is dead, dozens of other science writers would know
immediately who it was.

Similarly, enough is known about the anthrax letters that at least one
researcher would almost certainly have a pretty good idea who sent them.

So maybe the FBI already knows who did it but doesn't have enough evidence to
make an arrest. There is, however, another possibility, Dr.
Block mentioned at the physics meeting. Perhaps the FBI knows who did it but
also knows that it is someone who knows too much.

"The FBI, after all these months, has still not arrested anybody," Dr. Block
said. "It's possible, as has been suggested, that they may be standing
back because the person that's involved with it may have secret information
that the United States government would not like to have divulged."

It's a scenario that would make a good conspiracy-theory movie script. But real-
life events argue that such suspicions should be taken seriously.
After all, Dr. Block noted, both the Clinton and George W. Bush administrations
have resisted adjustments to the international biological
weapons treaty that would have allowed inspections of U.S. research facilities.


Of course, other possibilities remain. It may be that clues have been
manipulated to deceive investigators and the public; perhaps foreign
terrorists were involved in the anthrax attacks. Maybe a domestic terrorist
illicitly gained access to anthrax without the knowledge of any U.S.
researchers.

So unless the guilty party decides to go public and confess, there may never be
any way to know if the cover-up scenario accurately reflects the facts. And if
it does, nobody who really knows is free to say, and nobody who's free to say
really knows. But anybody who knows anything knows that when science clashes
with politics, there's always more to the story than most people will ever
know.


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