-Caveat Lector-
>From http://www.guardian.co.uk/Print/0,3858,4425241,00.html
>>>Detente has the usual meaning of releasing tensions. However, my Larousse
Dictionnaire Francais, tells me that detente means "trigger" also. So, any which way
but loose, eh, what?<<<
}}}>Begin
Islamabad dispatch
Pipe dreams
As Pakistan and India appear on the brink of a devastating conflict, some on the
subcontinent hope the prospect of billions of dollars in oil and gas revenues may yet
hold them back from war, writes Rory McCarthy
Rory McCarthy
Friday May 31, 2002
The Guardian
Yesterday in Islamabad the leaders of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan met
to revive the ambitious dream of building a �1.4bn gas pipeline to run from central
Asia, through Afghanistan and down to the Arabian Sea off the southern Pakistani
coast.
Few believe Afghanistan is secure enough to take such an expensive project. Most
provinces are still ruled by rival warlords who often owe fickle allegiance to the
government in Kabul. Any pipeline that is on or near the surface would be vulnerable
to attack.
Yet the dream of a 930-mile pipeline that would carry 23bn cubic metres of gas a
year and bring the Afghan government an annual �205m in transit fees alone is too
good to resist.
"Now with the gradual return of peace and normality in Afghanistan, we are confident
that this mega-project will be realised in the near future," said General Pervez
Musharraf, Pakistan's military ruler. The prospect of a lucrative pipeline deal may yet
be a key factor in encouraging the Islamabad regime to pull back from the threat of a
devastating war with India, which could scuttle the plans as quickly as they have
been revived.
Gen Musharraf signed a new agreement on the pipeline yesterday with Hamid
Karzai, Afghanistan's interim leader, and Sapamurat Niyazov, the Turkmen
president. The US oil giant Unocal has been looking at the project for the past
decade, battling against an Argentinean rival, Bridas Corporation, which also hoped
to win the rights. In the early days of the Taliban regime Unocal officials held
meetings with the ultra-Islamic clerics hoping for their support, but with little
success.
Now Unocal's first feasibility study needs to be updated and the project has to be put
out to tender and the funding secured.
Gas analysts warn the project would be vulnerable to disruption by warlords unless it
was buried deep enough in the ground, which would add considerable extra costs.
Already the size of the project means large industrial buyers would be expected to
pay over the odds for the gas at first. Pakistan is hoping that the World Bank or the
Asian Development Bank might step in and help finance the deal.
Gen Musharraf, his eyes clearly on the vast earnings and strategic importance oil
and gas could bring Pakistan, is also looking at a second �2bn pipeline that would
run from Iran through Pakistan into India. Although the Indian market offers a huge
opportunity, the pipeline project would have to overcome five decades of hostility
between the nuclear-armed India and Pakistan.
With the two nations threatening war, now seems an unlikely time to start talking
about a pipeline. Yet senior Russian officials have visited Pakistan this month,
ostensibly to talk about peace with India but also to push Gazprom's bid to build the
pipeline. If Gen Musharraf is unable to build a peaceful relationship with India some
have suggested bypassing Pakistan by building an underwater pipe from Iran round
to India. That would cost Pakistan dear.
Guardian Unlimited � Guardian Newspapers Limited 2002
End<{{{
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