-Caveat Lector-

http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,2763,743474,00.html

One-sided offer that will change nothing

Suzanne Goldenberg in Jerusalem
Tuesday June 25, 2002
The Guardian

Hours before President Bush delivered his vision for Middle East peace
yesterday, Israeli tanks roared up to the headquarters of Yasser Arafat and
a sixth Palestinian town fell under Israeli military occupation.

Mr Bush made no mention of either fact. Instead, his promise of a
Palestinian state was contingent on a call to Palestinians to overthrow
their elected leader, Yasser Arafat, and to create a western-style democracy
that exists nowhere else in the Arab world.

In stark contrast, the Israeli prime minister, Ariel Sharon, faced no
immediate pressure for an end to the army's re-occupation of West Bank
towns, or for a freeze on illegal Jewish settlements. Mr Sharon has overseen
34 new outposts during his 15 months in power.

Though the president did not specifically call for Mr Arafat's removal, he
made it clear the Palestinians could never hope for a state of their own
unless they cast out the man who has led them for the last 35 years.

"Peace requires a new and different leadership so that a Palestinian state
can be born," Mr Bush said. "I call on the Palestinian people to elect new
leaders, leaders not compromised by terror." Only then, he added, would
America support the creation of a state.

"When the Palestinian people have new leaders, new institutions and new
security arrangements with their neighbours, the United States of America
will sup port the creation of a Palestinian state," he said.

However, while many in the West Bank and Gaza would like to see a more
effective Palestinian administration, and are angry and frustrated at the
corruption of their leaders, there is no sign they are willing to jettison
Mr Arafat on Mr Bush's - or Mr Sharon's - say-so.

Although Mr Arafat's personal popularity is at barely 25%, according to an
opinion poll this month by the Jerusalem Media and Communications Centre,
each successive Israeli invasion of Palestinian territory has strengthened
his standing.

While the Palestinian leader has been discredited in the eyes of America,
47.5% of people in the West Bank and Gaza expect Mr Arafat would be returned
if free elections were held.

"It is only for the Palestinian people to determine who is their leader...
and President Bush must respect the democratic choice of the Palestinian
people," the Palestinian negotiator, Saeb Erakat, told CNN yesterday.
Beyond Washington's focus on the removal of Mr Arafat, the US president's
vision went no further last night than a vague promise of a provisional
Palestinian state, to be redeemed within three years - by which time Mr Bush
may no longer be in the White House.

He held out no details on the borders of the state that will emerge three
years from now, the location of its capital, or the future of millions of
Palestinian refugees - all vital concerns for the people of the West Bank
and Gaza.

Mr Bush also freed Mr Sharon of his few remaining constraints. While Israel
does not yet have licence to expel Mr Arafat - as Mr Sharon's hardline
allies demand - after last night's speech that day may not be far off.

In addition, Mr Sharon was handed additional pretexts to delay a withdrawal
from Palestinian lands, or the reopening of negotiations with the
Palestinians. As Mr Bush made clear, Mr Sharon is now within his rights to
demand not only an end to Palestinian violence, but a total overhaul of the
judiciary in the West Bank or Gaa, before embarking on peace talks.

"There is no basis here for any pressure on Israel whatsoever," said Joseph
Alpher, an independent Israeli analyst. "There is no vision in terms of
providing an incen tive to the Palestinians of what a state might look like.
The only real vision is a democratic market state of Palestine without
Arafat. If this is supposed to provide an incentive to Palestinians to get
rid of Arafat, I don't see it."

He was also extremely sceptical of Mr Bush's calls on Arab states - such as
Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan - to encourage the development of an
independent legislature and judiciary, and a market economy in the West Bank
and Gaza. None of those states conform to America's vision of a Palestinian
state.

In Mr Alpher's view, Mr Bush's address - his most detailed articulation so
far of his policy towards Israel and the Palestinians - falls short of a
genuine re-engagement in Middle East peacemaking. By doing so, it also
promises precious little in the way of hope for an end to nearly two years
of blood and chaos.

"This is either an incredibley naive approach or the cover for an absence of
any genuine energy to really deal with the region.

"After all, Bush began his term by being very standoffish, and this is an
elegant way of getting out of the issues," he said.

"We are dealing with two leaders, Sharon and Arafat, who are locked in their
respective positions, and an American leader, the only conceivable person
who can affect change, who does not want to truly get involved. So we are
stuck where we are, which means more of the same, which means the situation
will get worse: creeping Israeli occupation, expanding settlements and
continued terrorism."

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