-Caveat Lector-

> The Imaginary Evils of
> Deflation
> by Christopher Mayer
> [Posted September 11, 2002]

Mayer's article is superficial analysis.

The reason pending US deflation is a bad thing is because
it is asset deflation caused by deflating profits. Of course
deflation caused by increased productivity can be a good
thing but that is NOT what the US faces.

The emerging US deflation is caused by asset inflation
fed by irresponsible credit expansion by the Fed. This
wild credit expansion results in overfunding of productive
capacity which leads to "profitless" business activity caused
by unsustainable business competition. Too much capacity
leads to price deflation and declining profits.

Profitless business activity stems from the overcapacity
caused by wild credit expansion which causes a "race to
the bottom" of product prices which ultimately causes
increasing unemployment causing more price cutting
etc. etc.

The bottom line - deflation caused by steady profit margins
enhanced by increased productivity is GOOD.  Deflation
caused by overcapacity and profitless business activity
is BAD.
flw

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