NRA's Baker sees year as pivotal for gun lobby By Joanne Kenen WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Every now and then, when James Baker tells someone what he does for a living, they walk away. That can happen in Washington, at least, the chief lobbyist of the National Rifle Association said. But out in places like Pocatello, Idaho, ``They're ready to bronze your baby shoes.'' Baker, 46 -- no relation to the former Secretary of State by the same name -- joined up with the NRA about 20 years ago and, except for a five-year stint in his own lobbying shop, he has spent most of his working life there. In those years, he has seen gun control wax and wane as a political issue. It never goes away completely, but it seldom has as high a profile as it has in the year since the Columbine High School massacre in Littleton, Colorado -- or as it is likely to have in the months leading up to the November elections, when control of the White House and the House of Representatives are at stake. ``The course of this issue over the next 5, 10, 20 years will in large part be determined by this election,'' he told Reuters in an interview. Though a staunch defender of gun ownership and a formidable foe of government attempts to control guns, Baker is considered smoother and less likely to raise hackles than his predecessor as the NRA's face in Washington, Tanya Metaksa. Metaksa left in 1998 after power struggles within the NRA, and amid controversy over her often strident tone. ELECTION SEEN AS PIVOTAL Baker will not talk about his predecessor, saying only that he came back to the NRA in October 1998 with a commitment to stay through the elections because they asked him to and because he thought this election was pivotal for gun owners. ``I thought this was an important time for law-abiding gun owners,'' said Baker, who grew up hunting with his father on vacations in Maryland's Eastern Shore. The NRA did not start out as a lobby. It was founded shortly after the Civil War by Union soldiers who wanted to promote better marksmanship. It took on a more political cast in the 1960s as rising crime and political assassinations brought attention to gun control and gun ownership. The group now has between 3.5 and 3.6 million members and it is one of the most powerful lobbies in Washington. Not only can it influence lawmakers, it has an often-proven ability to mobilize its members and get them to the polls in November. NRA opposition to the 1994 assault weapon ban and the Brady bill requiring background checks was one factor in the Republican takeover of the House in 1994. Gun control groups, in contrast, have broad public support but it does not run as deep and they have not proven as effective at the grass-roots or in the voting booth. It is possible that will change this year with the impetus from last month's Million Mom March for gun control and heightened public awareness and alarm about gun violence and young people. But in the past, whenever gun owners felt politically threatened, the NRA has been able to ratchet up its own support and activism and grow even stronger. TURNING OUT PRO-GUN VOTERS ``We're going to keep our eye on the ball this year,'' Baker said. ``We're registering people and turning out as many people at the polls as we can in November.'' Gun owners are fighting a political war on the campaign trail and in Congress, where gun control sentiment has risen, particularly in the Senate. Many state legislatures have also been wrestling with the issue. At the moment, Baker and the NRA are winning in Congress, where legislation that passed the Senate a year ago failed in the House and where subsequent efforts to revive the issue have ended in stalemate or defeat for gun control proponents. The elections are not so easy to predict, partly because many different issues are still in the mix and it is not clear which will motivate swing voters. Guns have already emerged in the presidential contest between Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore, but it is not yet clear whether they are changing votes or simply reinforcing natural constituencies for Bush, viewed as an ally of the NRA, and Gore, a foe. In the states, it is a bit different. NRA officials said they expect gun control to be a big factor in House races in some 19 or 20 states, and it will also play a role in several Senate races, among them Missouri and Pennsylvania. In a close race, the gun vote could be key, Baker said. ''When the margin is 2 or 3 percent -- or sometimes even 4 or 5 -- that's where we can make a difference.'' -------[Cybershooters contacts]-------- Editor: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Website & subscription info: www.cybershooters.org
