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> These geologists very accurately predicted the peaking of oil
> production in the US,
Completely false. "These geologists" are not Hubbert, nor did
they very accurately predict the peaking of oil in the US, nor
do they use Hubbert's methodology, though they claim to.
Rather, they are people who would like to associate themselves
with Hubbert
"these geologists" are not the successors to Hubbert, but the
successors to "LImits to Growth", and "the club of Rome", who
predicted total exhaustion of oil supplies and ensuing economic
collapse in the 1980s.
Hubbert estimated the amount of oil remaining from the logistic
curves. Those who claim to be his successors assert that there
is X amount of oil remaining, and then fit the logistic curve
to match X. That is the club of rome technique, which is the
opposite of the Hubbert technique. Hubbert predicts oil
reserves from observed success in finding oil. Doomsayers
predict failure to find oil from alleged oil reserves.
--digsig
James A. Donald
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