A WhooHoo Flu mortality chart so far. https://www.moonofalabama.org/images10/corona17-s.jpg
As you can see you're more liable to get clobbered with a stray part that fell of a jetliner and certainly more liable to get killed by a stray bullet fired by an off-duty pig. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/02/coronavirus-globally.html Rr Ps. "Wearing a mask, unless it is a special N-95 respirator which also makes it difficult to breathe, does not prevent one from catching the virus. " Be very afraid, of the flu. Die of your fears. Leaves more air for the rest of us. On 2/28/20 2:09 PM, Peter Fairbrother wrote: > On 27/02/2020 15:01, Georgi Guninski wrote: >> What is the expected duration of the Corona virus threat? > > Healthwise, best guess worst case, the dying should be over in a > couple of years. Worst guess best case, a couple of months. > >> >> Not only death counts, include fear, social, technological >> and economic threats. > > Long-term consequences could be very long-term, initially ten years or > so? Think of it like 9/11 but with a lot more dying. > >> >> And what is the mortality rate of common flu? > > It varies quite a lot depending on the kind of 'flu, weather etc, but > for seasonal 'flu about 1 in 10,000 or 0.01% per year is about > average. A twentieth of that rate for children and the young and > healthy. That's for everybody, including people who don't get flu. > > In a year, on average, about 20% of people get 'flu. This is mainly > because of vaccination - it would probably be about 65% without > vaccination. The death rate for people with 'flu is about 5 in 10,000. > > So say 65 million cases of 'flu in the US per year, with 30,000 US > deaths per year, almost entirely the old - child deaths from seasonal > flu in the US are only about 150 per year. > > 'Flu has been given the sobriquet "the old man's friend" - on the > theory that it is better dying over a week from 'flu than over months > or years from cancer, Alzheimer's, COPD etc. Gives friends and family > time to say goodbye, but the patient doesn't suffer much or for too > long. And seasonal 'flu kills the elderly almost exclusively. > > > Pandemic 'flu can kill at much higher rates - the 1918 pandemic had a > death rate of well over 10% of the ~17% of the population who got it > during the first six months of the pandemic, though death rates > decreased later. This was also an all-age death spread, the > fit-and-healthy died about as often as the elderly. > > > > > Best data I have seen for COVID-19 mortality is from 50 in 10,000 or > 0.5% for the young-and-fit to 1,500 in 10,000 or 15% for those over 75 > and those with pre-existing heart disease. Diabetes and COPD are also > bad co-morbidities to have, at about 10% mortality. > > COVID-19 seems to kill mostly the elderly, but not nearly as > exclusively as 'flu. The young-and-fit are also very much at risk. > > This would give an overall mortality rate of about 150-200 per 10,000 > or 1.5%-2%. With an estimated 65% of the US population catching > COVID-19 that would be 4 million US deaths: much worse than AIDS, and > potentially the worst pandemic since the Plague. > > > > What could change that? Well, that figure is for people with at least > semi-decent health care. If society and health care break down (this > is unlikely to happen) US mortality could reach 15 million or more. On > the other hand extra-good healthcare might bring it down a bit. > > Coronaviruses mutate fairly rapidly, and for something like 2019-nCoV > these mutations generally tend towards less lethal varieties. So you > might still see a lot of sick people but with a lot fewer deaths. > > > It is also not impossible to make a vaccine in a fairly short time - > or make 10 vaccines, quickly test them for safety, then fuck the > effectiveness testing and just give people the best-looking 3 or 4 > safe ones. That could be done in about 3-4 months if lots of people > were dying and some otherwise-sensible rules were set aside. > > Antiviral drugs might also work, but ignoring licensing these are > expensive and slow to make and of uncertain efficacy. It took quite a > while for an effective AIDS cocktail to be worked out. > > > I don't have much hope that containment will stop the disease, but it > is worth trying; if nothing else in order to slow down the spread of > the infection. This gives more time for creating treatments and > treatment plans, hospital preparedness, a slower case rate requires > less treatment capacity and allows more treatment per patient, and so on. > > > People might (!would!) argue the numbers in this post a little, but I > think they are at least roughly correct. The COVID-19 numbers might be > a bit low as it is in many cases still too early to predict the outcome. > > Peter Fairbrother
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