What would/should be the expected response if a natural disaster/act of God
happened and the security of the key material could not be assured by an
independent third party?

For example, an earthquake, typhoon, or military coup disrupting travel to
location(s) with the key material?

Similarly, what would/should happen if a primary location was compromised,
but that compromise not detected due to a fire in the primary location
disrupting access to the security logs, leading to misissued certificates
being trusted and the CA being unaware of their (mis)issuance?

Are there any suggestions for how would/should these two hypotheticals be
distinguished? Wait until it’s detected? Certificate Transparency is not
sufficient in itself, due to the lifetime of certificates and the ability
to backdate certificates so that they appear issued prior to the effective
date of such CT requirements, so CT is not yet a proper mitigation.
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